Outside of the percentages, steals and blocks are the most underrated stats in standard eight category leagues. This is the result of a combination of lack of defense in the modern NBA, players’ increased offensive acumen and the tendency to gravitate toward the larger numbers present in the points, rebounds, assists and threes categories. A quick glance at the leaderboards confirms that only eleven fantasy relevant players average more than 1.5 SPG and twelve exceed that benchmark in BPG. While these categories can be viewed independently, combining them using the fad term “stocks” (steals + blocks) simplifies the player evaluation process.
The current average stocks per game (STPG) is 1.29. This makes all 54 players averaging at least 2 STPG (some non-qualified) elite. Among these players, a surprisingly small subgroup currently resides outside of the player rater top 50. Despite being elite in the hustle stats, there are obvious flaws in each of these players’ games that prevent them from penetrating the player rater’s first page. In this article, we will examine each of these players and evaluate their potential to improve on the PR as the season progresses.
Rudy Gobert C, Utah | 3.1 STPG
Gobert is the premier defensive Center in the league, evidenced by a top three mark in stocks, but that hasn’t exactly translated to fantasy value this year as he’s currently failing to meet expectations. Most of his stats are near last season’s marks with the one exception being FT% which is a league-worst .481% out of 129 qualified players. Reason for optimism exists as the Frenchman has a career .626% rate and hasn’t fallen below .630% in any of the prior four seasons. The outlier has him at -5.37 in the category which is an immense drag on his value to date. For comparison sake, Domantas Sabonis is shooting .659% on a similar number of attempts and has -2.11 on the PR. If Gobert is able to improve his shooting to near here, entirely possible given his recent history, the 3 additional PR points would have him at 26th overall, a near 50% increase.
Clint Capela C, Atl | 3.1 STPG
It’s fitting that one week after writing off Capela he responds with four game averages of 22 PPG, 18.8 RPG and 5.5 BPG. Such is the nature of sports writing. Atlanta has won three of those games which portends well for Capela’s ability to sustain this level of performance. With players such as Capela and Gobert whose stocks are fueled by high block numbers, buying low is more complicated because the value is apparent. The combination of above average steals and blocks creates a window of opportunity, which will be explained in the coming paragraphs.
Andre Drummond C, Cle | 3.0 STPG
Another player I discussed last week, Drummond has his obvious shooting flaws but both his 1.6 SPG and 1.4 BPG are top fifteen in the league. Their combined total of 4.53 PR points constitutes more than two thirds of his total score which isn’t to be overlooked for teams who can stomach his atrocious FT%. Recent addition Jarrett Allen and the eventual return of Kevin Love complicates Cleveland’s big man rotation and Drummond’s expiring contract actually makes him a somewhat attractive trade chip. A move to a borderline contender hoping to sneak into the playoffs would be a huge boon to his value, but otherwise Drummond is a category killer which complicates balanced roster construction.
Nerlens Noel C, NYK | 2.6 STPG
Noel’s 142 PR ranking limits him as solely a deeper league option, but is impressive considering he’s averaging 15.9 MPG and 2.9 PPG. Tom Thibodeau has him in a 35/65 timeshare with Mitchell Robinson, but predictably Noel sees more run in games that aren’t close. The Knicks are currently 8-9 and the eight seed in the eastern conference however team metrics confirm the widely held belief that they are overachieving and will most likely return to the cellar moving forward. If and when that happens, Noel should receive more playing time and become at least a streaming option in all leagues.
Brook Lopez C, Mil | 2.3 STPG
Myles Turner has usurped Lopez as the premier Center who can block shots and hit threes, but he’s still a top-tier stretch five even if he isn’t as dynamic as his first two years in Milwaukee. The combination of top ten blocks and a decent for a Center 0.6 SPG achieves a much greater net output than is presumed, evidenced by his 83 PR ranking compared to being 111 in roster percentage on ESPN. Milwaukee needs Lopez’ floor spacing to open driving lanes for Giannis Antetokounmpo so don’t expect his role to change anytime soon.
P.J. Washington PF,C, Cha | 2.3 STPG
Washington showed flashes of 1+1+1 potential (averages of at least 1 three, steal and block per game) during a strong rookie campaign and, while that still exists, a dip in threes paired with an increase in blocks has him as more of stocks guy so far this season. The early surge in blocks stems from some run as the backup center in small-ball lineups which might change with Cody Zeller’s return, but the sophomore has shown the potential for above average block numbers exists. Pair that with a career 0.9 SPG and we have the makings of an underrated asset, especially if his current 1.1 3PG sees a boost.
Victor Oladipo SG, Hou | 2.3 STPG
Both Oladipo and teammate John Wall (not enough games played) ooze with post-hype stock upside and Houston’s tendency of playing small only heightens those prospects. Steals are just as valuable as blocks and Oladipo is top ten in those, while his 0.4 BPG could rise as he’s reached 0.8 in two separate seasons and has 0.7 BPG with Houston in an admittedly small three game sample. More will be known once he gains his footing with his new team but once that happens the buy-low window will have closed.
Marcus Smart SG,PG, Bos | 2.0 STPG
Smart’s reputation as a defensive dynamo and poor shooter rings true again this year, which places him at the precipice of being roster worthy in standard leagues. Once Boston is at full health and he focuses more on defense, his blocks should increase (0 total in his last six games) at the very least while his subpar shooting rates will be minimized on fewer attempts. If your team can stomach Smart’s shooting, he’s worth the investment.
Robert Covington PF,SF, Por | 2.0 STPG
Last season Covington averaged a career high 2.9 STPG and an absurd 3.8 STPG in 22 games with Houston so this season’s mark is a big disappointment. In fact, the season to date has been so awful that his 1.96 PR score in steals is actually more than his total PR score of 1.65. The culprit has been a career worst .441 TS% which ranks 202nd out of 207 qualified players which makes him an obvious buy low candidate. It may be difficult to negotiate a trade as Covington’s top 75 preseason ADP (he went 47 in my home league) means his current team will probably be hesitant to swap him for pennies on the dollar, so be sure not to lowball an offer if you believe in the wing’s resurgence.
Kelly Oubre Jr. PF,SF, GS | 2.0 STPG
I could copy and paste everything I said about Covington here as it’s also true for Oubre and Covington actually outranks him by three spots on the player rater thanks to shooting that is somehow worse. A .436 TS% is third worst in the league and is the product of a career low .202 3P% (.321 career) which has to increase. Oubre won’t come as cheap as the numbers suggest, but there’s no way he can get any worse so if you can afford the risk I would take it.
