Revisiting Efficiency

In a preseason article, I discussed volume, efficiency and the importance of identifying players who excel in both. High volume players tend to stand out while efficiency often falls by the wayside. In reality, efficiency in the form of FG% and FT% constitutes a quarter of players’ value in standard eight category leagues yet GMs continually prioritize more glamorous stats like points, rebounds and threes. While the player rater accounts for this as an unbiased estimator, your league mates most likely do not which means players who shoot well are often criminally underrated.

You won’t find superstars such as Nikola Jokic and Stephen Curry (currently one and two on the player rater respectively) mentioned because their price is astronomical. Every player who makes an appearance will substantially boost the percentage categories without requiring forfeiture of a first round type player in return. Eighteen players currently have a combined player rater score of at least 3 in the FG% and FT% categories and the nine who are less-heralded are featured below. PR is the player’s current player rater rank and PR% is their combined total in FG% and FT%.

Zach LaVine SG Chi | PR: 4 | PR%: 3.87

Three weeks ago I pegged LaVine as likely to continue his scorching start thanks to positive regression in 3P%. In that time, it has improved from .321 to .416 which has vaulted the high-flyer into the upper echelon of ballers this season and his TS% of .654 is thirteenth in the entire league and one of three guards in the top twenty. LaVine’s current 2P%, 3P% and FT% would be career-highs and are likely to decrease but he should remain in at least the top 25 players for the remainder of the season and probably won’t cost as much to acquire as a typical fourth best player in fantasy would.

Khris Middleton SF, SG Mil | PR: 14 | PR%: 3.8

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s “sidekick” is perennially underrated due to the label yet is on pace for a rare 50-40-90 season that was narrowly missed last year (.497 FG%) and actually outranks his MVP teammate handily (14 to 29). Middleton is one of the most consistent shooters in the league and has improved his TS% each of the last five seasons which shows he’s still improving. Being one of the most well-rounded players in fantasy disguises his overall impact which makes Middleton attainable for less than the market rate.

Gordon Hayward SF Cha | PR: 17 | PR%: 3.05

Hayward’s injury-plagued tenure with Boston appears to be more of a fit than skill issue as the veteran is proving that he’s capable of being the first option on offense. If his three years in Boston are removed, this would actually be seen as a natural progression, which means Hayward sustaining this level of play is entirely in the range of possibilities. A move for the first-year Hornet would be a positive in every category, not just the percentages.

Bam Adebayo C, PF Mia | PR: 19 | PR%: 4.88

Adebayo reached fantasy stardom last season and a similarly high level of play this year isn’t as obvious due to a trade of hustle stats for FT%. His 1.6 STPG is a 25% decrease from last season’s mark, however an .864 FT% is an enormous improvement on last season’s .691% and is currently second among all fantasy relevant Centers after Karl-Anthony Towns. The trade-off means Adebayo’s equivalent performance is viewed as a small decline and he could be available for cheaper than face value.

DeMar DeRozan SG, SF SA | PR: 30 | PR%: 3.49

Last season, San Antonio decided LaMarcus Aldridge would move to the perimeter instead of DeRozan and the product has been much better efficiency for someone who was known as an inefficient isolation/midrange player for the majority of his career. A slash of .488/.371/.891 includes a career high 3P% and FT% with a FG% that’s the third highest of DeRozan’s career and well above a .458% average. His reputation as an empty points player lingers from his time in Toronto and creates the opportunity to acquire a mislabeled veteran at a discount.

Richaun Holmes C, PF Sac | PR: 31 | PR%: 3.99

Many including myself foresaw a timeshare at Center in Sacramento when the Kings signed Hassan Whiteside, however the latter is averaging only 14.3 MPG. Holmes has proven to be the far superior player and has expanded upon last season’s breakout campaign in nearly every category including a bump from an already elite .681 TS% to .696%. His .664 FG% is first in the league, .810 FT% is sixth among Centers and he’s on pace to join Kevin McHale as the only players to shoot 60% from the field and 80% from the line in a season. Despite being 31st on the player rater, Holmes is the 69th most rostered player in ESPN leagues. This shows the market disparity and might allow for a trade that surrenders far less than Holmes is worth.

Jarrett Allen C Cle | PR: 41 | PR%: 3.15

Allen was thriving playing alongside Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant in Brooklyn but a trade to Cleveland in the James Harden deal has depressed his value in the interim. In limited minutes, he and Andre Drummond are proving incapable of sharing the court which puts a hard cap on Allen’s current upside. Fortunately, it appears Drummond is on the way out which should allow for the young Center to expand his impact as we saw earlier this year. A league-leading .728 TS% supported by a career-high .779 FT% will decline when Allen gets more touches but should remain elite. Make a move for Allen now before Drummond and the Cavs part ways.

De’Andre Hunter SF, PF Atl | PR: 42 | PR%: 3.01

It’s only been eighteen games, but Hunter has bounced back from a poor rookie season to remind everyone why he was the fourth selection in the draft and shooting has been the largest component. A .521 TS% that ranked 168th out of 195 qualified players is now 22nd at .640% thanks in large part to an increase from .454% to .609% on twos. Hunter is slated to miss at least the next week due to right knee soreness so now is the perfect time to swing a deal for the former lottery pick, especially if your team is near the top of the standings.

Ivica Zubac C LAC | PR: 85 | PR%: 3.08

A Center averaging 7.7 PPG and 6 RPG in under 20 MPG doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but Zubac’ .732 TS% would be leading the league if he qualified. Attempting just over 4 shots per game, the player rater accounts for volume and Zubac still scores highly despite extremely limited opportunity. His 40.8% roster in ESPN leagues ranks 133rd and means that he may cost no more than a roster spot or at least come for next to nothing via trade. Pursue Zubac as an affordable Center option if your team is hurting in the percentages.

About Andrew DeStefano

22 || Bay Area Based || Baseball, Basketball, Football BS in Applied Statistics from UC Davis Working Toward a Career in Sports Analytics

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