This past week the NBA released the second-half schedule for the 2021 season. It was the first time the league released its annual calendar in two parts, and most GMs will take the announcement with a grain of salt. In reality, the end of season schedule can decide some leagues and analyzing the updated Schedule Grid available on ESPN.com provides valuable insight on transactions that have the potential to pay large dividends in the fantasy playoffs.
Referencing the schedule grid is typically part of my draft prep for the simple reason that a backloaded schedule means more games and statistics during the fantasy playoffs. Looking so far ahead is far from a certainty and shouldn’t be treated as a huge factor, but when faced with two similar players on draft night I’ll select the one whose team plays more during the fantasy playoffs. This exercise also applies to trade decisions as an even deal on paper could actually be much more lucrative for the party receiving the player with a backloaded schedule.
The NBA endeavored to create a more balanced schedule than in years past for this unique season so the final month of the year is not nearly as sporadic as it has been. The number of postponed games also serves as a bit of a confounding variable as the schedule is always subject to change and potentially not all postponed games will be played. Regardless, we as GMs will take any opportunity to gain an edge.
What the Schedule Says
Every team is currently slated to play between 14 and 17 games during the last four weeks of the season – the fantasy playoffs. 13 teams play at least 16 games and only 4 play 14 or less. The data is summarized in the table below.
Games During Fantasy Playoffs
80% of the league plays either 15 or 16 games, a pronounced increase from years past, and 15 games appears to be a fair benchmark. More than anything, the table shows that selling shares of Timberwolves, Knicks, Raptors and especially Clippers players should prove profitable. Even a straight up one-for-one with a star player on one of these teams for a star on another could work. For instance, Paul George for Khris Middleton, Julius Randle for Domantas Sabonis, Fred VanVleet for Zach LaVine or Karl-Anthony Towns for Joel Embiid. On the surface these simple swaps appear even, however the net value of at least two additional games during the fantasy playoffs swings the trade in one clear direction.
Normally I’d advise going after Memphis and San Antonio players, however, both these organizations employ team heavy approaches that minimize the potential impact of any one player. The Grizzlies have 11 players averaging at least 20 MPG (plus the return of Jaren Jackson) while San Antonio has 9 meeting this threshold. A speculative add of any borderline roster-worthy player is worth it but acquiring either team’s best players won’t move the needle as much as it would for other teams.
In the first round of the fantasy playoffs, 18 teams play eight games and 10 play seven while only the Clippers and Knicks play six. If you’re going to be in a first round match that requires maximum effort, consider trading players on these teams for any whose team plays eight games.
During the championship round, Indiana, Memphis and San Antonio play nine games, eighteen teams play eight and nine play seven. I’ve already discussed Memphis and San Antonio, but Indiana players are in a far better scenario. The Pacers rely heavily on a few key players who have the potential to make a difference when it matters most, especially as the team attempts to make a playoff push. Sabonis, Myles Turner and Malcolm Brogdon (along with possibly TJ Warren and Caris LeVert) get an upgrade.
Rest
The two other factors that affect games played and minutes down the stretch are injuries, which are impossible to predict, and rest. As regular season games start to matter less, good teams sit their key veterans while bad teams begin to give younger players additional run (more on this later). Looking at the standings now nearly halfway through the season, the teams that are leading their conferences and are therefore more likely to rest veteran players are Philadelphia, Brooklyn and Milwaukee in the east and possibly Utah and both Los Angeles teams in the more competitive western conference. Count on Lebron James, Kawhi Leonard, Kevin Durant and Giannis Antetokounmpo among others to sit out contests near the season’s end. It’s worth it to at least consider moving one of them now for someone on a team jostling for playoff positioning.
Glancing at the bottom of the standings, 538 pegs Orlando, Sacramento, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Detroit, Houston and Minnesota as longshots for the playoffs at 6% playoff probability at best. Most of these rosters are on the younger side already but expect each of these teams’ veterans to see less minutes in the season’s second half. This is already apparent in the cases of Andre Drummond, Blake Griffin and Demarcus Cousins and others like Al Horford, Kevin Love, John Wall, Victor Oladipo and Eric Gordon could follow.
Opportunity
The inverse of certain players seeing fewer minutes is others seeing more and becoming fantasy relevant options as we saw last season with Christian Wood and Malik Beasley. The March 25th trade deadline is still three and a half weeks away and most opportunity shifts will stem from moves closer to then, but remaining up to date with the latest rumors and identifying those players who have the potential to explode come April and May is of paramount importance so you can beat your peers to the waiver wire. Both Wood and Beasley were free agents in most leagues so acquiring them only required being quickest to waivers once the trades happened. Be ready when the time comes, especially for trades involving any of the seven bottom teams mentioned earlier.
The best way to identify players who may breakout in the second half is to look at those on bad teams who are putting up decent numbers at around 20 MPG. A role increase will result in more minutes which is all the player would need to produce meaningful numbers. The best way to check this is to look at per 36 numbers for any player who you think could be on his way to more minutes. Identifying players at this point is pure speculation, but candidates include Jarred Vanderbilt, Kevin Porter, Isaiah Stewart, Dylan Windler and Theo Maledon.
