We’re only three weeks into this young season, so it is too early to come to any firm conclusions. That being said, we can make some observations. The top NFFC Quarterbacks this year ranked by most points per game through the first three contests (with corresponding ADP) are as follows:
1) Ryan Fitzpatrick – 43.90(undrafted)
2) Patrick Mahomes – 42.47(12th round)
3) Drew Brees – 38.83(8th round)
4) Matt Ryan 34.22(12th round)
5) Ben Roethlisberger – 33.13(11th round)
6) Philip Rivers – 31.27(12th round)
7) Cam Newton – 30.63(8th round)
8) Kirk Cousins – 29.85(10th round)
9) Jared Goff – 27.52(12th round)
10) Andy Dalton – 27.27(19th round)
Conspicuously absent from the top ten: Aaron Rodgers (3rd round), Deshaun Watson (6th round), Russell Wilson (8th round), and Tom Brady (7th round).
I find it remarkable that only two of the top 10 QB’s were drafted in single digit rounds. However, I’m not surprised, as this type of volatility is the norm. It’s not like baseball where the bulk of one’s statistical production is weighted heavily towards individual performance, in football the signal caller is merely one cog in a machine.
Yes, perhaps the most important individual cog, and yet without a good offensive line, without a skilled offensive coordinator, without the proper weapons for the offensive scheme the most talented QB will not be a fantasy asset. Conversely all of the aforementioned can raise a mediocre quarterback up to fantasy star status. This isn’t to say that Rodgers and Brady won’t finish in the top five at the end of the season, but if they don’t, such volatility is not uncommon year to year at this position.
This all just reiterates the point that the highest percentage play to win your individual league championship is not to draft this position too early. There’s plenty available late, and even on the wire. Tampa Bay’s NFL leading fantasy QB went undrafted, while Andy Dalton went extremely late or undrafted. Another key component to the top of the leaderboard is points allowed by the corresponding team’s defense.
The top three: Buccaneers, Saints, and Chiefs, plus the Chargers (6th) are all top four in points allowed on the season. Football teams don’t push the aerial envelope unless they have to. Those that have big leads tend to sit on them, taking the air out of the ball with the running game. Obviously, it’s not a game script that leads to a high number of pass attempts. As is typically the case, I mixed up strategies on many of my teams for variance and to test how things actually work out in practice. The later I drafted a quarterback, the higher in the standings that team tends to be.
Some things I’m going to keep an eye on this weekend:
1) Rishard Matthews is no longer a Titan. His departure leaves WR2 position in Tennessee unsettled. The number of snaps and target distribution between Taywan Taylor and Taje Sharpe could have fantasy implications down the road during a bye week crunch, even if Tennessee’s offense is impotent at the moment.
2) In the coming weeks, pay attention to running back usage in New England. Sony Michel lines up to be the bell cow, but with a checkered injury history in college it would be wise to track how Kenjon Barner performs. He’s another dollar stash and hold option for those desperate to improve their ground game.
3) Josh Allen. Could there a viable fantasy backup QB in Buffalo? Time will tell.
4) Both Matt Breida and Alfred Morris are dinged up with knee issues and are both listed as questionable. It will be interesting to see if Raheem Mostert sees the field against the Chargers as a result. In 14 team leagues the number three in San Francisco might be an asset down the road if either Breida or Morris can’t stay healthy.
Follow Greg @liquidhippo.
