We’ve entered the middle third of the NBA season which is classified as a lull by many due to the sheen of early surprises wearing off and the month-long delay to All Star Weekend and the trade deadline. While many see this as a time to catch a breather, it’s best used as an opportunity to get ahead of the competition.
The likes of Zach Lavine and Myles Turner have leapt to fantasy stardom while late-round picks such as Richaun Holmes and Chris Boucher are top 50 players. Let other GMs remain focused on them and what’s happened in the past while you make proactive, under the radar moves to improve your team. This means identifying players who have the potential to break out in the final third of the season – when trade deadline movement creates new roles and empty stats surface on tanking teams. It’s definitely a guessing game but using educated inferences to buy low now is easily worth the risk of potentially acquiring a player who will make a difference in the fantasy playoffs. Below I have identified ten players, only two of them on most rosters, who could see their roles drastically increase as the season progresses.
Jarrett Allen C Cle | 88.7%
Since being traded from Brooklyn last month, Allen’s production has dipped slightly in most categories and substantially in rebounds (2.9 fewer RPG with Cleveland) due to the Cavs crowded frontcourt. Rumors are Andre Drummond is on the way out, however the team has stated they won’t buy him out which complicates matters due to teams needing to approach his 28.7 million salary in outgoing contracts despite his expiring deal. Allen becomes a top 25 player if Drummond leaves Cleveland. He’s already top 50 thanks to efficient shooting from the field and the line along with elite blocks, but the potential for more clearly exists. A move for Allen now is worth the gamble that Drummond is traded.
Robert Covington PF, SF Por | 73.9%
In the time since I last wrote about Covington two and a half weeks ago, his PR score has nearly doubled to 3.11 as a result of markedly better shooting. In five February games, the 3 and D power forward is averaging 10.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 2.6 STPG and 2.2 3PG on .355 3P%. Covington isn’t what he once was even just last season with Houston, but these numbers show that the early season struggles were merely a slump as he’s 78th on the PR over the last fifteen days. Trading for Covington now while his season stats are still subpar is a smart buy.
Lou Williams SG LAC | 54.7%
The NBA’s premier bench scorer just two years ago, Williams’ stats have taken a dive this season. His 20.8 MPG are eighth on the team and 11 PPG just doesn’t cut it for someone whose main attribute is their scoring; even per 36 numbers for free throws, assists and scoring are way down. Williams makes the list because of trade rumors surrounding both him and teammate Patrick Beverley, as a change of scenery for the shooting guard could provide a spark or a Beverley trade would unlock more minutes. The Clippers are currently third in the Western Conference at 18-8 so a trade is far from imminent but any ground lost to the rival Lakers over the next month increases the likelihood of a roster shake up.
Hassan Whiteside C Sac | 33%
A return to Sacramento hasn’t paid dividends for Whiteside, whose playing his fewest MPG at 14.1 since joining Miami’s rotation in 2015 and is a far cry from last season’s top ten PR finish with Portland that included a league leading 2.9 BPG. He’s been thoroughly outplayed by Richaun Holmes so minutes and opportunity can only come via trade which is at least a possibility due to his expiring contract. Borderline Eastern Conference contenders such as Washington and Charlotte could be in the market for a cheap big and a relocation would be a boon for Whiteside’s dormant fantasy value. The issue is the return as Sacramento would most likely ask for more than a single second round pick that those teams would be hesitant to forfeit. A statement from Whiteside may be necessary to force a trade and resurrect his value.
Josh Jackson SF, SG Det | 29%
It’s easy to forget that Jackson was the fourth overall pick in the 2017 draft and the post-hype sleeper prospect has showed out thus far with averages of at least one three, steal and block per game. Last season’s 22 game cup of coffee with Memphis should’ve been an indication that the Kansas product still has productivity to offer with per 36 numbers of 18 points, 6 rebounds, 2 threes, 1.5 steals and 1 block. Those rates have remained this year with an additional 6 MPG, and more playing time is in store after Derrick Rose’s shipment to New York. The efficiency still lags as Jackson’s .522 TS% ranks 165th out of 198 qualified players, but the additional minutes and hustle stats warrants more attention.
Daniel Theis C, PF Bos | 24.5%
Theis is second in the NBA with a .694 TS% and his .469 3P% on 2.1 attempts per game would be eighth if he had enough attempts to qualify. Elite shooting and per 36 numbers of 14.6 points, 7.7 boards, 0.8 steals and 1.4 blocks make him an attractive option except for the reality that he’s playing under 24 MPG. Tristan Thompson, Grant Williams, Semi Ojeleye and Robert Williams are all seeing decent run at the four and five which severely limits Theis’ substantial upside and history unfortunately shows that coach Brad Stevens will stick to this rotation throughout the regular season. Despite the limited minutes, Thies is still 97 on the PR and deserves to be on rosters in more leagues.
Royce O’Neale SF, PF Uta | 20.7%
While playing time is limiting Theis’ impact, it’s actually helping O’Neale as he’s a surprising 52nd in the league at 32.3 MPG. The run has allowed his across the board production to surface as he’s the lowest ranked player to not have a single negative PR category at 82nd. Other than the versatility, his production is driven by threes and rebounds as O’Neale’s .455 3P% (.388% career) is ninth in the league and 6.6 RPG is eighth among non-bigs. No category is outstanding but the net impact is a huge positive.
Josh Hart SG, SF NO | 15.2%
Hart makes the list because he’s the premier rebounding wing in the league as his 1.9 PR score (7.8 RPG) in the category makes up more than two thirds of his total value and because of the speculation surrounding Lonzo Ball’s future. If the former second overall pick is dealt, that opens up more minutes for Hart whose actually been holding his own lately at 74th on the PR over the last two weeks. 20 points, 17 rebounds, 3 threes, and 3 stocks in 40 minutes against Houston on Tuesday demonstrates his fantasy potential as a wing. Teammate Nickeil Alexander-Walker also stands to gain significant value from a Ball trade.
Jae’Sean Tate SF Hou | 11.5%
Tate plays an undersized small forward at 6’4 but that doesn’t prevent him from oozing 1+1+1 upside. Christian Wood’s injury has unlocked minutes for the rookie who went undrafted in 2018, and Tate has responded with averages of 10 points, 6 rebounds and 1.6 stocks on elite shooting over the last two weeks. Tate is useful in all formats for as long as Wood is injured and has the potential to keep that value if Victor Oladipo is dealt.
De’Anthony Melton PG Mem | 4.6%
Melton has only played twelve games this year and is buried on the PR as a result, but his averages of 10 PPG, 1.6 3PG and 1.9 STPG in only 21.5 MPG are an aberration for a point guard available in nearly all leagues. Extrapolated to 36 MPG, that’s 16/5/5 with 2.7 threes and 3.2 stocks. Melton will never play that many minutes regularly, but the line is incredibly rich for those in deeper formats.
