I’m constantly looking over the draft, trying to figure out what I did right, and equally if not more importantly, what I did wrong. Each year, there are a handful of players drafted in the 20th round or later (15 team draft) who have stellar seasons and help make a huge difference for their owners. As we are at about the 100 game mark for most MLB teams, I figured now was as good a time as any to look at those players and see if their ascent was completely unexpected, or perhaps learn that each showed something previously, but the drafting public just didn’t see it.
Brandon Crawford had a composite ADP of 366 (28th shortstop). I actually passed on Crawford, opting for Tim Beckham in the 17th round (Crawford went in the 22nd in my draft). All Crawford has done is hit .288 with 10 home runs, 42 runs scored and 40 RBI. While not a superstar, Crawford has certainly contributed. More importantly, he had contributed in the past. Crawford hit 21 home runs in 2015 and has averaged 15 round trippers per year for the four years before this season. He had driven in 84, 84 and 77 runs respectively over the past three seasons. He hit as high as .275 in 2016 and had played an average of 149 games the past four years. While he struggled in the first half of 2017 (hitting just .225), he turned it on in the second half, batting .283. The signs were all there, yet Main Event drafters picked 27 shortstops, including Jose Reyes, Chris Owings, Zack Cozart and the aforementioned Tim Beckham prior to Crawford.
Sticking with shortstops, Asdrubal Cabrera was drafted 339th (25th shortstop) in the NFBC Main Event. Cabrera, who qualifies at short, second and third base, is hitting .280 with 17 home runs, 53 RBI and has scored 46 runs. He’s pretty darn good this year, and we could have, if not should have, seen it coming. Cabrera hit .280 in 2016 and 2017, so his .280 average this year is certainly no surprise. While Cabrera hit just 14 home runs last year, he hit 23 in 2016 and has double digits in home runs each of his last eight seasons, including 25 in 2011. He’s not sexy and he seems to have been around forever, yet the 32-year old Cabrera has been a contributor for years, and was certainly worthy of something better than a 23rd round pick.
What is it with shortstops? Eduardo Escobar gets no respect. He now qualifies at shortstop and third base (and although he only qualified at 3B at the start of the season, it was expected that with the Jorge Polanco suspension, Escobar would gain shortstop eligibility very early in the season) and has hit .272 with 14 home runs. He’s on pace to hit 21 home runs this year, a nice number for a shortstop available after the 25th round (I got him in FAAB in week 1). The 21 home run pace is not only helpful, but also identical to the 21 home runs Escobar hit last season. Escobar is on pace for 84 RBI (he had 73 last year) and 67 runs scored (62 last year). Basically, but for a slight increase in batting average, Escobar is about to repeat last year’s numbers. We all should have seen this one coming. It was right before our eyes.
Not everything is predicable. Tyler Skaggs has a composite ADP of 378. I drafted him with the 531st pick in the NFBC Main Event. Thus far, Skaggs has thrown 104 innings, and has seven wins, 106 strikeouts, an ERA of 2.68 and a WHIP of 1.22. So, certainly Skaggs’ previous MLB numbers at least hinted at this kind of dominance, right? Well, not really. Skaggs had never had an ERA under 4.17 (and that was in just 49 2/3 innings). Indeed, Skaggs has never thrown more than 113 innings in an MLB season. He had never struck out more than 86 in a season, and other than the 49 2/3 innings season, he never had a K/9 above 9. Skaggs’ second half last season didn’t show marked improvement, as he had a post all-star ERA of 4.85 with hitters batting .282 against him. Simply put, there really weren’t any signs indicating that Skaggs was going to break out.
There aren’t many contributors picked after the 20th round. For the most part, these draft picks are cut and replaced by free agents who in turn are cut and replaced by other free agents or players originally drafter after the 20th round. This makes it even more important to find a veritable diamond in the rough in the last rounds of the draft. It’s not easy. For every Brandon Crawford or Asdrubal Cabrera, there are a handful of guys like Orlando Arcia (15th shortstop), Ahmed Rosario (18th), Addison Russell (22nd) and Freddie Galvis (30th). The difference between hitting on a late round pick and spending your FAAB trying to find one while competing with 14 other owners trying to do the same can be the difference between cashing and having time to prepare early for football.
The signs are there. We just have to see them.
Best of luck,
Buster
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