At the beginning of the season, I wrote about the importance of balancing volume and efficiency in fantasy through the advanced stats usage rate and true shooting percentage. Earlier this month efficiency received an in-season update and its volume’s turn now, with all the players mentioned below currently sporting a career high USG%. While a high USG% doesn’t directly make a player better for fantasy purposes (Russell Westbrook), it means the potential for a breakout campaign exists which six of the players discussed are enjoying. For the other four, the increased opportunity could lead to better stats as the season progresses, especially in the second half when roles change after the trade deadline.
Nikola Jokic C Den | 29 USG%
No disrespect to Stephen Curry who’s having an outstanding season of his own, but Jokic has been the fantasy MVP of the 2021 season. His 29 USG% ranks 23rd in the league and is 1.6 points higher than his previous career high back in 2019 and has led to career highs in PPG, RPG, APG, SPG and FT% along with MPG which isn’t to be overlooked. Jokic led the league in fouls last year which used to limit his minutes, but 35.8 MPG are 3.2 higher than any previous season and when that’s combined with USG% and a .658 TS% that ranks 10th in the league the result is the number one fantasy player by nearly three PR points.
Jerami Grant SF, PF Det | 26.5 USG%
Many pegged Grant as a breakout candidate after he opted to sign with a Detroit team in need of playmakers over an identical deal to return to Denver and it appears he was correct in betting on himself. Most impressive has been 23.5 PPG, nearly 10 points higher than his previous career high, and an .881 FT% (career .694%) that ranks 21st in the league. All other stats remain at or near previous averages except for a .435 FG% which is easily worth the tradeoff of increased opportunity and FT%. The result has been third round value for a player drafted in the sixth round or later in most leagues.
Jaylen Brown SG, SF Bos | 31 USG%
Brown came out of the gates hot and has been able to sustain that performance even after Kemba Walker’s return as the latter hasn’t looked like his former self. The former lottery pick’s steady progression exploded this year as he’s posting career highs in all standard categories except rebounds in addition to USG% and TS%. A sub-optimal FT% caps out Brown as a top 25 type player, he’s currently 31st on the PR, unless he can improve efficiency or become elite in threes or steals where he’s at least in the 90th percentile of each.
Jordan Clarkson SG Uta | 28.4 USG%
Clarkson may not be an All-Star like Charles Barkley suggested but he’s the leading candidate for Sixth Man of the Year with good reason as he’s averaging career highs in every shooting metric and USG%. A stat that sums up his year nicely: Clarkson, Curry, Damian Lillard and Paul George are the only players who have at least 28 USG% and are shooting better than .900% on free throws. Given the across-the-board highs and Utah’s hot start, Clarkson is likely to see some regression but for a player who went undrafted in many leagues he probably isn’t being valued near his 43rd PR rank by the majority of GMs and is still a bargain as a result.
Malik Beasley SG, SF Min | 25.2 USG%
Beasley erupted after a mid-season trade to Minnesota last year and that emergence has continued into 2021, highlighted by stellar shooting from deep. He along with Curry, Terry Rozier, Zach Lavine, Joe Harris, Gary Trent Jr. and Tim Hardaway Jr. are the seven players shooting at least .390% from three with at least three makes per game. Points and threes comprise more than two thirds of his PR score, but he’s at least decent in every other category which is far from true for many of the other knockdown shooters in the league. The one blemish is his legal troubles stemming from multiple offseason misdemeanors although a suspension appears unlikely at this point after a February 9th hearing went as well as possible.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander SG, PG OKC | 27.3 USG%
Gilgeous-Alexander broke out last year in former coach Billy Donovan’s three point guard lineup that also featured Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder, but all three of the others are now elsewhere and the young combo guard’s role has shifted from a complementary defense-first player to primary creator for a young team. As such, his scoring, threes, assists and even FG% have increased while his trademark defensive stats and FT% have decreased. The net result has actually been a slight downgrade from last season, especially given his fourth-round price on draft day, although the new role means increased potential if the defensive stats do return. Given OKC’s record that probably won’t happen this season but lookout for Gilgeous-Alexander as a two-way star in the coming seasons.
Jimmy Butler SF, SG Mia | 26.6 USG%
Butler’s career high USG% comes as a surprise given his propensity for ball-handling and assists as his career has progressed, although his sample size is still small due to a month-long bout with COVID. The fact that he’s still 81st on the PR (based on totals, not averages) speaks volumes to his integral role as Miami’s leader. Although his shooting from the field is sub-par and he’s essentially a non-factor from three (0.2 3PG), his 7.8 RPG and 7.6 APG are career highs and his 1.9 SPG are tied for the league lead with Larry Nance, Jrue Holiday and OG Anunoby. The possibility that he can still be acquired for a discount exists due to the aforementioned absence, as a glimpse at the raw numbers proves Butler is a top 25 type player.
Dillon Brooks SG, SF Mem | 27.1 USG%
Brooks’ sub .400 FG% is difficult to stomach, but if you can look past that he has the makings of a dynamic scoring wing especially if he can optimize his shot selection. The main culprit is a .447 2P% that ranks 121st out of 131 qualified players while his .319 3P% is still below average but not nearly as bad. The young Grizzlies employ a team basketball approach so the opportunity to expand his role this year is not imminent although the front office will be forced to make decisions on all their young players which could come as soon as this year’s trade deadline. He’s only on 41.9% of ESPN rosters and is worth a speculative add once he returns from injury for teams in need of scoring and upside.
Ja Morant PG Mem | 29.1 USG%
Similar to Butler, Morant makes the list because early injuries have reduced his counting stats and disguise his value. It’s only his second season, but Morant’s borderline elite USG% this early is telling for his career potential although he’s yet to develop a reliable fourth stat aside from the traditional point guard categories of points, assists and FT%. Morant probably profiles as more of an NBA star rather than fantasy star, evidenced by his inflated fourth round ADP this season, but an increase in 3PM or steals is all Morant needs to make the leap as the opportunity is there.
Hamidou Diallo SG OKC | 23.5 USG%
Diallo’s USG% ranks a surprising 56th in the league and is notably higher than ball-handlers DeMar DeRozan, Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry. The shooting rates and only 24.3 MPG are lagging but per 36 numbers of 18.5 PPG, 8 RPG and 2.1 STPG are enticing. There’s no promise that more opportunity exists this season, but the rebuilding Thunder are probably out of the playoff race which could mean more minutes in the season’s second half.
