Last week, CBS Sports convened a collection of the most intrepid fantasy analysts available to mock draft on a Tuesday in January. The premise: 12 team head-to-head league that uses one catcher, one of each infield position, three OF, one UT, five SP and two RP.
This is a relatively shallow format for typical mocking purposes. With only 12 teams and 16 starters overall, I went into the exercise prioritizing starting pitching. Of course, I then passed on top-flight starters with each of my first two picks, at 1.4 and 2.9, opting instead for Jose Ramirez and Paul Goldschmidt, respectively.
Is this a problem anyone else has in the draft room? Sizing up the likes of Luis Severino and Aaron Nola only to swerve at the last minute because the Cardinals always kick the crap out of your favorite team? (It’s tough not to love Goldy at his price this year.) Both hurlers were gone by my third pick — as were Walker Buehler and Clayton Kershaw — so I opted for Carlos Carrasco. A fine consolation, but someone who would have been a legit No. 2 for my squad considering the format.
Let’s rewind to my first pick, because I didn’t like it. (This is why mocks are good — get these unexpected questions like whom to choose with the freakin No. 4 pick out of the way during a practice round.)
There is no way Ramirez is worth a top-6 pick right now. Notices of his second-half decline have come from all angles on Twitter. Over 63 games post All-Star Break, the switch hitter struggled to a .218/.366/.793 line with 10 home runs, 35 RBI and 14 bags over 63 games. These are decent counting stats considering the dip from a first-half .302/.401/1.029 line, but why wouldn’t you choose his teammate Francisco Lindor with the No. 4 pick? Nolan Arenado? J.D. Martinez? Someone who didn’t falter down the stretch, like Christian Yelich?
I’m not sure where Ramirez fits in to my first round plans this year, really. Maybe I take him in the early second, but then I’m waiting even longer for my first starter than I did here.
Speaking of starters, Max Scherzer went first overall in this mock, with drafter Matt Williams selecting both Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom at the 1-2 turn. Williams then built his offense with Juan Soto and Joey Votto at the 3-4 turn.
The second round of 12-team leagues this year is loaded with talent. Each of the pitchers I mentioned earlier, plus the likes of Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna, Freddie Freeman, Manny Machado and Paul Goldschmidt — each potential MVPs or someone with the award already in his pocket — went off the board here. This type of offense makes an early pick of Scherzer or Sale a lot more palatable. You should do it if you have the chance to.
It will be hard to pass up Trea Turner in the third round this year, but the rest of the No. 1 starters are all going in this area. As much as I hesitate to take starting pitching early, I will have at least one SP by the end of three rounds, even if it means using SP picks in the fourth, too, where Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin fell (Stephen Strasburg went in the early fourth).
The following are some players I thought went for deals or solid value:
Round 6: Jose Abreu, Scooter Gennett, Yasiel Puig: established production, high floors, tons of playing time.
Round 7: Marcell Ozuna might be my most targeted player this year. The 28-year-old couldn’t replicate his monster 2017 in Miami, but he surged in the second half after struggling with a shoulder injury.
Round 8: When will I stop taking fliers on Justin Turner? Probably not this year. The Dodgers third-sacker was coming off an injury early in the year and proceeded to go .356/.447/1.066 with nine homers, 33 RBI and 41 runs over 55 second-half games. Turner has averaged only 124 games over his last five seasons, but if he enters the year healthy we should least get the top end of his ability for as long as it lasts.
Round 9: The perfect place to take some seemingly boring innings-eaters like J.A. Happ and Masahiro Tanaka. They won’t tank any of your ratios and should rack up wins behind the Yankees insane offense and bullpen.
Round 10: Brand Hand fell to the 10th in this mock, which is probably a good place to look for a closer with job security. Raisel Iglesias and Felipe Vazquez fit the bill here, too.
We’ll have to leave deeper-round picks for another day — our preseason ranks are going to change a lot between now and March. Until then, I’ll be training myself to pull the trigger on at least one, if not two, of the game’s top 12 starting pitchers in the first four rounds and then loading up on offense. We’ll see if I can actually do it come draft day.
Follow Danny @_dannycross_.
