Checking in on wOBA Risers

Back in February, I used wOBA — weighted on-base percentage — to look for hitters whose 2017 stats weren’t lining up with their 2018 draft-day costs. The thought was that wOBA, which Fangraphs considers to be a superior all-around measure of offensive output than things like batting average or OPS, would demonstrate repeatable performance. Everyone on that list ranked among the game’s best offensive players over the entire season and seemed to be coming off the board at a discount.

Well… that exercise did not uncover a single player helping fantasy teams this year. It’s actually remarkable how efficiently it zeroed in on some of the bigger busts in 2018: Justin Turner, Tommy Pham, Marwin Gonzalez, Avisail Garcia, Justin Smoak, Zack Cozart, Ryan Zimmerman and Domingo Santana. Damn!

Of course, there were caveats with each player and various concerns about their production lasting another full season. The point was that the cost seemed right. 

This disclosure aside, I’m ready to go back to the wOBA well looking for guys who over the past 30 days have stepped things up. This production is recent, after all (we’re not asking them to take six months off then get back to it). 

Each of the following players is owned in fewer than 50% of Yahoo leagues (ownership in parenthesis):

Jesse Winker (27%): If Winker’s power continues to evolve, the 24-year-old former first-rounder could exceed all expectations — and this is a guy who proved to be a professional hitter at a young age. Winker has hit a ridiculous .405 over the past 30 days with four home runs, 23 RBI and an 18.7% walk rate, good enough for the third best wOBA in the majors over that span. He’ll get a day or two off per week unless the Reds trade another outfielder, but when he’s in the lineup he’s either batting ahead of All Stars Joey Votto, Eugenio Suarez and Scooter Gennett or behind them. The Cincinnati offense is underrated — runs and RBI should follow.

Stephen Piscotty (39%): I touched on Piscotty a couple weeks ago, which feels pretty good since the A’s outfielder has blasted five home runs, driven in 10 and even stolen a bag over nine games since. Piscotty checks in at No. 13 on the wOBA leaderboard over the past month with eight home runs, 19 RBI, 18 runs and a .309/.385/.649 slash. Let’s not forget this is a guy who two seasons ago put up 22 home runs, 85 RBI and 86 runs with a .273 average and .800 OPS in St. Louis. 

Jake Bauers (16%): The 22-year-old entered the season as a top 100 prospect, and he’s done nothing to worry Rays fans since his call up on June 7. In 36 games the 1B/DH has put up five homers and 18 RBI while ascending to the third spot in the order. Over the past month he’s at .255/.381/.520 with nearly as many walks as strikeouts.

Kole Calhoun (12%): Calhoun was brutally terrible over the season’s first two months but checks in just three spots behind Bauers on the wOBA leaderboard over the past month, hitting .274 with a .926 OPS, eight bombs, 15 RBI and 18 runs over that span. He’s really only a consideration for deep leagues, but the lefty can be streaky — last season he mixed two months of OPS pushing .900 with two under .600.

Rougned Odor (49%): Odor missed most of April with a hamstring injury, which might have slowed what many expected to be a bounce-back year. The second baseman’s 2017 was strange: He maintained the 30-plus home run power from 2016, but his overall line dropped from .271/.296/.502 to .204/.252/.397. Over the past month he’s looked like the former version (.282/.367/.518) and tallied five home runs, 10 RBI, 17 runs and four steals.

Scott Schebler (18%): Schebler is an intriguing player — the lefty swinger easily has 30 home run pop (he hit exactly 30 last year in just 473 at bats) and has been filling in at center field for the Reds, even slotting in atop the lineup some days. Over the past month he’s walked at a 12.7% clip with a .269/.356/.487 slash and four homers, 12 RBI, 12 runs and a bag over 90 plate appearances. He’s wrapping up a nonthreatening DL stint right now, but could see increased playing time if the Reds move Adam Duvall or Billy Hamilton at the deadline. 

Follow Danny @_dannycross_.