It’s early in the mock draft season, and the NFBC ADP from early January is likely to change dramatically prior to the Main Event in late March, but it does still bear some interest.
J.T. Realmuto is the hottest catcher on the MLB trading block today, with at least six teams considering mortgaging their respective futures to get this 27-year-old stud. For “real” baseball purposes, I’m OK with that. Realmuto measures well in many of the areas that “real” GMs care about.
Fantasy GMs have much less to consider. We look at out five categories and little else. We must project those categories for the upcoming season, so age is certainly a factor, but unless you are in a dynasty league, age isn’t the most important factor. We also have to consider playing time, talent around the lineup and park effects.
Let’s look at Realmuto and his recent trends:
Year Runs HR RBI SB Avg
2016 60 11 48 12 .303
2017 68 17 65 8 .278
2018 74 21 74 3 .277
3-year average 67 16 62 8 .286
Steamer Projection 60 17 62 5 .267
Steamer, historically conservative, gives Realmutu a 2019 season pretty darn close to his three-year average. Steamer isn’t high on his batting average, and it is clear that Realmuto is stealing less, but all that being said, the projection calls for much of the same for Realmuto.
Now, let’s look at the often-criticized Yasmani Grandal, who just signed a one-year contract with Milwaukee for $18.25 million after turning down the Dodger’s qualifying offer of $17.9 million. Yasmani has his warts, but for fantasy purposes, he’s pretty darn OK.
Let’s look at Grandal and his recent trends:
Year Runs HR RBI SB Avg
2016 49 27 72 1 .228
2017 50 22 58 0 .247
2018 65 24 68 2 .241
3-year average 55 24 66 1 .239
Steamer Projection 56 21 61 2 .237
As expected, despite the home park move, the conservative Steamer gives Grandal projections very close to his three-year averages. The 30-year-old Grandal isn’t expected to suffer a huge decline in 2019.
For comparison’s sake, taking an average of Steamer and the three-year respective averages of Realmuto and Grandal gives us this “projection.” (Yes, I know that this isn’t really a projection, but it does demonstrate that the expected value of these two players isn’t too far apart.)
Runs HR RBI SB Avg
Realmuto 64 17 62 6 .272
Grandal 56 22 64 1 .238
They wash in RBI, and Realmuto’s extra runs are more than neutralized by Grandal’s additional power. Realmuto’s stolen bases give him an advantage, but as you can see from the past three years, those numbers are in decline, and while Steamer looks for stabilization, I just don’t see it. Therefore, the only measurable advantage that Realmuto has over Grandal is batting average.
Realmuto has averaged 506 at bats over the past three years, whereas Grandal has averaged 422. Based upon a typical NFBC roster of 14 starting players, and assuming a .270 team batting average without Realmuto/Grandal, the Realmuto’s team’s batting average would be .27001, and the Grandal’s team’s batting average would be .26813. It’s a difference, but not necessarily dramatic.
Based upon 15-team NFBC ADP to date, Realmuto, still a Marlin, is being drafted on average at pick #58, near the end of the fourth round. Grandal, a poor man’s Realmuto, is being drafted on average at ick #154, the beginning of the 11tth round.
Things will change, but the thought of Realmuto going back and stealing double digit bases, coupled with a shot at hitting .300 will inflate Realmuto’s value, while Grandal’s value will remain deflated. This very well could make Grandal an excellent buying opportunity come draft day.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
