Thursday night’s highly entertaining clash between the New Orleans Saints and Dallas Cowboys is a good reminder of just how much luck goes into winning a fantasy title.
The Cowboys came into the game with one of the league’s toughest defenses, but that hasn’t been a recipe for success this season against the insane offenses of teams like New Orleans, Kansas City and the Los Angeles Rams. Yet Dallas controlled the game start to finish, limiting the league’s top-scoring offense to 10 points and future hall-of-famer Drew Brees & Co. to just 192 yards of total offense.
Anyone leaning on Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram or Michael Thomas for a critical Week 13 win is heading into the weekend with problems. Amari Cooper’s fumble put a damper on an otherwise decent showing for his owners in PPR leagues. And if Dak Prescott doesn’t miss a wide-open Michael Gallup late in the fourth quarter for a second TD, all would be well for the streamers among us. (Of course, Ezekiel Elliot’s six receptions for 60 yards and a score produced exactly what his owners needed on top of a decent rushing performance.)
It’s such a bummer when fantasy stars let us down when it counts. Kamara gets us to the playoffs only to have a freak newcomer like Austin Ekeler eliminate us without so much as a semifinal appearance. And Week 13 is critical for so many fantasy owners trying to squeak into the playoffs — in one of my 14-teamers, five teams have clinched a playoff spot, with six still mathematically alive for the other three. It’s win or go home for nearly half the league.
Which brings us to the fantasy schedule itself, where matchups and surprise blowups win the day.
Next week, the Chiefs host the Ravens, who are holding opponents to a league-best 18 points per game. The matchup has a similar feel to the Saints-Cowboys tilt: Can Baltimore’s defense slow the Chiefs enough for its run-first offense to grind out the clock? Or will the Chiefs put up their customary 30 points, with the Ravens’ new-look offense playing catch up?
As entertaining as the Saints-Cowboys game was — it took a number of great defensive plays in critical moments to keep New Orleans in check — we’re really here for the pinball numbers come playoff time.
The NFL’s other breakout offense of 2018, the Los Angeles Rams, faces a similar situation next week — a visit to Chicago and the league’s No. 3 scoring defense. It could be cold, wet, rainy, snowy or all of the above when the Rams get their first taste of Khalil Mack and friends. What a way to end an otherwise awesome fantasy season — with a dud for Rams skill players in Chicago while some jerk runs up the score using Buccaneers at home against the Saints in a game the team will lose.
Of course, these outcomes are not destined. In fact, it’s more likely — based on the entirety of 2018 NFL offense data — that all three of these fantasy juggernauts will be just fine no matter who they play.
But Thursday night was a warning to us all: The NFL is unpredictable, and regular season stardom doesn’t guarantee championships.
Follow Danny @_dannycross_
