This is a two-part column, kind of like the before and after of my NFBC Main Event draft. This piece, as you’ll see, is the “before” version.
I am penning the first part on the Friday prior to the draft in the “What Might Happen” section, and I will write the second part, “Regrettably, What Actually Happened,” or, if things go well, “What Actually Happened!!!” section upon my return from Las Vegas, posted later this week. You will see what I wanted to do and how the draft affected my strategy, hopefully for the best. Keep in mind that as a draft is dynamic — my initial desired players are surely to give way to other players who are passed up by the drafters. One shift early in the draft could very well change every pick thereafter.
For what it is worth, last year I went into the Main Event expecting to take Max Scherzer with the 11thpick. I would have done so, but Clayton Kershaw had fallen to me at 11, and I couldn’t pass up on Kershaw for Scherzer. Oops. As my second round pick was Jose Ramirez, and my third round pick was Christian Yelich, the diversion from Scherzer to Kershaw likely cost me somewhere in the neighborhood of tens of thousands of dollars. I cashed, but my gosh, I would have done significantly better had I followed my initial instincts.
What Might Happen
The NFBC random draft allocator hates me. It has always hated me. The older version of the draft allocator hated me as well. I’m an original member of the NFBC and this will be my 16th year drafting. I’ve never drafted in the top five. Never.
The way the NFBC assigns draft picks is inherently fair. Rather than getting the pick that corresponds to when your name is selected, you submit your preferences 1-15 in order, and the random generator “spits out” a name. That person gets his/her first choice, and it goes on from there. So, if you wanted to draft fifteenth, and your name was selected third, there’s a great chance you will get your wish. Otherwise, you’d be drafting third. The system, as mentioned is really fair. It would be even better if the generated didn’t hate me and give me my 13th or worse choice every single solitary year.
This year, my name got spat out 14th (out of 15 names). I ended up with my 13th desired draft spot (out of 15), which was 13th in the draft. I had wanted to draft fifth or sixth, then take Trey Turner and follow that up with the best remaining pitcher of Gerrit Cole, Aaron Nola, Corey Kluber or Trevor Bauer, giving me a solid foundation offensively and defensively. Did I mention that I’m picking 13th? So much for that plan.
Picking 13th has its advantages, though, starting with the fact that only two people pick between my odd (13th in the round) and even (3rd in the round) picks. By some basic research and attention at the draft, I might be able to predict who the next four players after my odd-round pick draft pick might be — and, better yet, who they might not be.
Ray Flowers (picking 15th) is on record saying that Bryce Harper is not a whole heck of a lot better in fantasy than Justin Upton, or something of that nature. If I wanted Harper (I don’t), then I would take him in the even rounds, as Flowers has two of the four picks after my odd-round selection. Flowers is reportedly high on Jose Altuve, so if I wanted him (I don’t), then Altuve would necessarily be an odd round choice for me. In this instance, I’d have to take Altuve with my first round pick, as if he falls to Flowers at 15/16, Flowers will undoubtedly grab him.
I also understand that Flowers is not big on catchers early, or pitchers in the first two rounds. As I am targeting Gary Sanchez, I can reasonably wait until the fourth round (pick 48), rather than taking him in the third round (pick 43). Flowers’ reported early disdain for starting pitchers may sway me to hold off on a starting pitcher and go with a hitter in the first, and then follow that pick up with a starting pitcher, as Ray in unlikely to take a starter at 15 or 16. Flowers is apparently high on both Byron Buxton and Jorge Soler. I like both as well. If I choose to draft either at or around their anticipated draft slot, I will draft them in odd rounds, before Flowers has a chance. Then again, my basic research of Flowers might be completely wrong, and the other gentlemen, Jacob Halusker (14th pick), drafting right after me, could throw a wrench in all my plans. Nonetheless, it’s my plan and I’m sticking to it, at least for now.
Picking 13th in the first round, I am expecting that Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Scherzer, Jose Ramirez, Turner, J.D. Martinez, Ronald Acuna, Christian Yelich, Nolan Arenado, Jacob DeGrom and Aaron Judge will most certainly be taken. So that takes those 11 players off the board before I pick. I’d like Chris Sale at 13, but I don’t expect him to fall to me. Sale completes the anticipated dozen, giving me the next pick. I do expect that both Trevor Story and Justin Verlander will be available at 13. This gave me two different ways to go.
There are 24 picks between my second round pick and my third round pick. If the draft goes anywhere near as expected, the best starting pitchers available at my third round pick (#43) will be James Paxton, Jameson Taillon and Stephen Strasburg. There’s a chance that Walker Buehler might be available, but I am not counting on it. I’d prefer not to have a staff anchored by any of these guys, as due to innings restrictions and or past history, the all look better as number twos, rather than anchors.
I believe that Story will be an MVP candidate this year. If I take Story in the first round (#13), the best two pitchers potentially remaining at my second round pick (#18) are Verlander and Cole. I like both, but certainly Verlander more. Unfortunately, I don’t expect that Verlander will survive to pick 18. So, realistically, I would be looking at a Story/Cole start. Not too bad.
But what if Cole is taken before pick #18? There isn’t another pitcher worthy of the 18th pick, meaning that I’d have to go with a hitter (the leftover of, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Javier Baez). This unlikely scenario would have me start with Story and either Bregman or Baez (Ray Flowers, picking 15thapparently has a man-crush on Altuve). There’s nothing wrong with starting with Story and either Bregman or Baez, but that would leave me without an ace, trying to make up in quantity over quality in pitching.
Alternatively, I could nab Verlander at pick 13. If I do, in a worst case scenario Story, Altuve, Bregman and Baez are taken by my second pick, and I’d be left to choose between the injured (but rapidly healing) Francisco Lindor and the aforementioned Gerrit Cole. Like most drafters in most years, I’d prefer not to take a starting pitcher in the first round, and I certainly don’t want to double up on starting pitching in the first two rounds. I’ve had Josh Donaldson and his calf, and Jose Bautista and his bone bruise, and both were pretty much season-ending injuries. I know that Lindor is a decade younger than those guys were when they got hurt, but the thought of taking an already injured player in the first two rounds isn’t terribly appealing to me. It’s been said that you can’t win the league in the first two rounds, but you can certainly lose it. I concur.
As I write, I am leaning toward taking Story in the first round and then taking the leftover of Verlander and Cole assuming that at least one falls to pick #18. With Altuve, Bregman, Baez, Lindor available, and with Flowers owning two of the four picks, I think that it’s unlikely that both Cole and Verlander go in the next four picks. I think that Story would have gone if I passed him, so I’m about 90% certain that I’ll go hitter, then pitcher.
This brings me to the third round, the 43rd pick. Looking at ADP for guidance, and guidance only, there’s a very remote chance that my target, Starling Marte will fall to me. Buehler may make it down, but that is unlikely as well. That leaves me with someone among the following: Anthony Rizzo, Cody Bellinger, Anthony Rendon, J.T. Realmuto, and Jack Flaherty. If I end up with Verlander/Cole, then I shouldn’t take another pitcher who doesn’t stand out from the rest. Part of me wants to jump at Realmuto here, giving me an early heads up on the competition at catcher (see my previous two columns here and here for an analysis as to why taking a top catcher early actually makes sense). I’m tempted, but don’t know if I will pull the trigger because my fourth round pick is, barring something unforeseen, Gary Sanchez.
I anticipate that the closer run is going to start midway through the fifth round, and I will ride that run depending upon when it starts and get one of the top 10 closers either in the fifth round (#73) or the sixth round (#78). If all goes as expected, I will end up with Kenley Jansen, Brad Hand, Aroldis Chapman, Roberto Osuna or Felipe Vazquez. I’d prefer not to join the run, but with 24 picks between my sixth and seventh round selections, I’m forced to be reactionary as opposed to anything else. Hence, I shall reluctantly join the run. With my remaining top six pick, I’m hoping to get Lorenzo Cain, Jean Segura, David Dahl, Jonathan Villar or Eddie Rosario.
I’m looking at my target, Rougned Odor, in the seventh (pick #103, Main Event ADP 103), followed by a starting pitcher in the eighth (#108) (depending upon who is out there), and then Byron Buxton in the 9th (pick #133, Main Event ADP 141). I believe that Ray Flowers is a Buxton fan, and as he picks two picks after my ninth round pick, I can’t afford to hold off until the 10th round (#138). It will be tight on both Odor and Buxton.
If things go well, I will have the following start after nine rounds:
1. Trevor Story (SS)
2. Justin Verlander (P) or Gerrit Cole (P)
3. Cody Bellinger (1B-OF)
4. Gary Sanchez (C)
5. Jonathan Villar (2B)
6. Closer
7. Rougned Odor (MI)
8. Luis Castillo (P)
9. Byron Buxton (OF)
That’s the plan. Come Saturday, I will know how it works out. Later this week I will post the team and a brief analysis of what went right, and of course what didn’t.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
