I wrote a column last week about the value of drafting a catcher early in a two-catcher league, and since then I’ve received a number of emails (apparently, you are reading). Many of the emails pretty much called me stupid. Not counting those emails from my family, the rest of the emails took issue to my claims, explaining that I couldn’t just compare two players without taking into account where those players would be drafted.
Fair enough. In fact, even more than fair. I think that these emailers make my point even better than I did in the original column. Let’s look at catchers and the respective round you’d be taking them. To do this, I will use the NFBC ADP for 15-team leagues over the past month.
JT Realmuto is presently going 47th overall, which makes him an early fourth round pick. Gary Sanchez is presently going 53rd overall, putting him around the mid-fourth. Again, I’ll use catchers and middle infielders to demonstrate the point. The same comparison works for catchers/corner infielders and catchers/outfielders as well.
Carlos Correa is presently going 49th overall, putting him pretty much equal in the drafters’ minds to Realmuto. Robinson Chirinos is the 15th ranked catcher by ADP, picked on average in the 19th round at pick 280 overall. DJ LeMahieu is presently going in the 19th round 274th, putting him pretty much on par with Chirinos.
So, with your fourth round pick you could take Correa, and follow that up in the 19th with Chirinos, or you could use your fourth round pick on catcher Realmuto, and follow that up in the 19th round with LeMahieu. Which team would be better off?
Well, you are reading this so you likely already ought to know the answer. Here’s how it shapes out using Steamer’s projections:
Runs HR RBI SB Avg
Realmuto/LeMahieu: 123 30 124 12 .269
Chirinos/Correa: 108 34 113 5 .243
Those extra four home runs certainly don’t make up for 15 runs, 11 RBI, 7 stolen bases, or the 0.026 difference in batting average that the Realmuto/LeMahieu tandem provides.
Now, let’s look at Sanchez, who as mentioned is going 53rd overall. The closest middle infielder drafted near Sanchez is Ozzie Albies, going 55th. This time, let’s pass on the average catcher to go with Albies, and instead let’s assume that you are partially punting the catcher category, and you go with the 23rd ranked catcher, Austin Barnes. Barnes is presently going at pick 325 overall, near the middle of the 22nd round.
The closest middle infielder in the draft to Barnes is Adam Frazier, drafted 319th overall.
So, with your late fourth round pick, you could take Ozzie Albies and pair him with Austin Barnes in the 22nd round, or you could opt for Gary Sanchez in the fourth, and take your middle infielder, Adam Frazier in the 22nd round. Which pair would be a better option? Well, if you look at Steamer, or virtually any other projection service not prepared by a member of Ozzie Albies’ family, the answer, again, is taking the better catcher early. Here’s how it shakes out:
Runs HR RBI SB Avg
Sanchez/Frazier: 139 38 129 13 .261
Albies/Barnes: 105 25 101 20 .262
Albies and Barnes will get you 13 more stolen bases, but you will lag by 28 RBI, 13 home runs, and 34 runs. Clearly, the Sanchez team is better.
Khris Davis is presently drafted 48th, one spot after Realmuto. Davis will undoubtedly out perform Realmuto. Xander Bogarts is being drafted just before Sanchez. Bogarts will outperform Sanchez. Those are pretty much givens. But, they don’t tell the whole picture.
You can’t just compare Realmuto or Sanchez numbers with those drafted around them. You have to look at the replacement catcher you are going to be stuck with. Concurrently, if you take Realmuto or Sanchez, you are invariably passing on a really good player in the fourth round. So, you have to consider the value of the replacement that you will get at that position when you otherwise would have taken a catcher.
That is the key to scarcity.
No matter how you look at it, this year Realmuto and Sanchez are dominant, and the bottom two-thirds of the catchers are so poor, that coupling Realmuto or Sanchez with a replacement is far better than taking the arguably better player in the fourth, and coupling that player with a weak catcher.
You can choose any projection service. You can choose to compare catchers and any other position. You can look at it for replacement value, or you can look at it at similar draft positions. No matter how you look at it, taking Realmuto or Sanchez is a smart choice.
Bring those emails on.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
