In yet another week of high scoring action, every game featured at least four touchdowns and 34 total points. Quarterbacks were the main benefactors of this offensive surge and, curiously enough, it was actually a dry week for running backs. This development means there is plenty of juicy information to analyze and use to your advantage.
QBs Sling It All Over the Field
Through all but one game this week, 16 quarterbacks have scored at least 20 points, all of them surpassing their projection with the exception of Russell Wilson. The high volume of QB1 performances is unprecedented and proves why streaming quarterbacks is a viable strategy as six are available in more than two thirds of ESPN leagues.
Those players are Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, Nick Foles, Jake Luton, Kirk Cousins and Tua Tagovailoa, a mix of unproven, young guys and inconsistent veterans. Bridgewater and Tagovailoa are the most promising of the group as they offer the best balance of upside and consistency moving forward. In a difficult matchup against a Chiefs defense that was holding opposing QBs to under 13 FPPG over the last 5 weeks, Bridgewater completed 36/49 passes for 310 yards, 2 touchdowns, an additional rushing score and 28.3 points. The first-year Panther had been slumping of late, but yesterday’s performance marked the fifth time he’s reached 19 points in nine games. Following a rough debut, Tagovailoa rebounded with a gritty showing of 248 yards, 2 TDs, 35 rushing yards and 21.4 points. Most importantly, it appears his hold on the starting job is secure as his QBR jumped 62 points to 87.6 and Miami is now 3-0 in games the rookie has played.
The top three scorers of the week, and the only quarterbacks to reach 30 points, are Kyler Murray, Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes. All should be locked into lineups regardless of the matchup and Murray is making the case for top QB in fantasy thanks to a heavy rushing load and his position best 29.2 FPPG.
The Buccaneers struggled mightily as a team and Tom Brady’s 2.36 points on 209 passing yards and 3 interceptions show that he’s no longer a consistent option which makes him solely a matchup-based play. Other quarterbacks turned in poor performances, but none were started in enough leagues to warrant discussion.
Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffrey and Everyone Else
Cook and McCaffrey were leagues ahead this week with totals of 39.2 and 37.1, nearly 20 points better than the third best scorer. These two along with Alvin Kamara are the clear-cut top three backs thanks to their guaranteed touches and extremely high floor. Their lowest weekly total in eighteen combined games is 15.9, a score that would typically please most GMs.
Following the elites are the unexpected J.D. McKissic, Kalen Ballage and James Robinson. Washington actually has a decent backfield tandem of Antonio Gibson and McKissic, who basically split snaps 50/50, and despite not yet finding the end zone, the latter has been a consistent flex option since week 3. In that span, McKissic is averaging 11.2 FPPG on a healthy 5.5 receptions per game and Sunday’s 17.2 fantasy points on 9/65/0 is a season high in all three categories. Ballage made his Chargers debut Sunday and led the backfield with 17 touches for 84 total yards, a rushing touchdown and 16.4 fantasy points. Justin Jackson’s injury and LA’s commitment to Joshua Kelley as the second string back no matter who’s starting opened the door for the former Jet to make a name for himself. The NFL production hasn’t been there but the physical gifts are tantalizing (6’2, 230, sub 4.5 40 -yard dash) and Ballage did have an eight touchdown game at Arizona State. Robinson is proving to be this year’s top waiver add as the rookie is now averaging 18.7 FPPG, good for sixth best at the position, and has scored double digit fantasy points in every game this season.
There were several backs who created headaches for GMs by failing to produce, including some big names who had been consistent until now, most notably Derrick Henry. Chicago held the bruiser to only 68 yards on 21 carries and Henry now has the same number of games scoring fewer than 10 as he does over 20. He’s still an RB1 given the guaranteed touches and big-play potential but expectations should be checked slightly. The other player to score in single digits while being started in at least 90% of leagues was James Connor, who totaled 20 yards on 11 touches. Dallas had been torched by opposing rushers over the last few weeks and Connor had been one of the most consistent backs with at least 14 points in every game since week 1, so this week’s dud was out of the blue. On the plus side, Connor’s 9 carries were 3 more than Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland combined, and Pittsburgh struggled in a game they were expected to dominate, meaning this is most likely a fluke performance.
Other players who were started in at least half of ESPN leagues and scored in single digits include Ezekiel Elliott, Jonathan Taylor, David Montgomery, Melvin Gordon, Ronald Jones and JaMycal Hasty. David Johnson and Justin Jackson also fit the criteria but left early due to injury. As for the other six, there is cause for concern in each case. Elliott has now scored in single digits in three straight games, is averaging 8.8 FPPG in four full games without Dak Prescott and is best viewed as a flex option. In two games since the bye, Taylor has 21 touches for 65 yards, 1 touchdown and 14.5 fantasy points. Jordan Wilkins has more carries in each game and this has the makings of a committee with both backs and Nyheim Hines. In Denver and Tampa’s case, team struggles doomed all four fantasy relevant running backs, although better games should be ahead, but being part of a committee limits the upside of each player. It seemed like Hasty could be in for a prominent role with a favorable matchup against Green Bay but Kyle Shannahan’s running back carousel spun back in Jerick McKinnon’s favor and Hasty appears to be the worst of San Francisco’s running backs when all are healthy.
The Most Obscure Leading Receiver Ever
Three receivers scored 33 points this week: Devante Adams, Tyreek Hill and Richie James. Typically a return specialist, James stepped up with San Francisco missing their top four pass catchers and used a favorable game script to produce the game of his life. This might be the first time that the leading receiver on the week was started in 0% of leagues. Adams is averaging 33.6 FPPG and should be regarded as the best receiver in fantasy when healthy. Hill has been the most consistent receiver in fantasy with at least 15 points in every game except one.
Of the receivers to score at least 20 points, the name to keep an eye on is Jerry Jeudy, who saw double digit targets for the second straight game. Sunday’s 7/125/1 line led to a career best 25.5 points and is indicative of progression. In addition to Jeudy, Christian Kirk and Curtis Samuel are averaging more than 20 FPPG over the last three weeks. Both surges are fueled by touchdowns but both have seen increased targets leading to a more prominent role.
Five receivers were started in more than 50% of leagues yet produced single digit outputs, none more disappointing than DeAndre Hopkins. Nuk only saw 3 targets and his 3 catches for 30 yards represent a season low 6 points. This performance was surprising given Sunday’s game was a high-scoring affair and Hopkin’s should still be regarded as one of the best options at the position. After three straight weeks of at least 14 points, DJ Moore has totaled only 11.3 over the last two games and should be viewed as a flex option moving forward. Adam Thielen scored below 6 for the second straight week as Dalvin Cook remained in the spotlight and Minnesota has won both games which doesn’t bode well for Thielen’s prospects. Tyler Lockett’s roller coaster season continued with a 4/40/0 line Sunday and he has scored in single digits four of the last five games, the one exception being his 53-point explosion in week 7. If you have Lockett you’re starting him, but performances like Sundays make the idea less palatable. Chris Godwin returned from a one game absence to submit 41 yards on 3 receptions as part of Tampa’s dumpster fire performance and it may be difficult for him to produce consistently with so many mouths to feed.
