Week 8 Overreactions: Confusing Quarterbacks, Obscure Running Backs and Streaky Receivers
Despite another week of high scoring action, fantasy output was suppressed across the board. A combination of injuries, byes, sloppy play and lesser players stepping up are the main culprit behind GMs headaches as I can’t be the only one who found themselves starting unfamiliar players. In the end, it created a truly wild week with plentiful interesting performances to dissect.
The Big Three and Everyone Else
Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson and Justin Herbert were the top quarterbacks in FPPG in action Sunday, and all three were among the six to score at least 20 points. Mahomes and Wilson are no strangers, but Herbert is proving to be a smart investment for Los Angeles. This week’s 21.2 was his second lowest total this season, a testament to Herbert’s consistency, and the rookie is looking like a low-tier QB1.
The other three signal callers to score 20 are veterans Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Phillip Rivers. Rodgers passed for 291 yards and threw 3 TDs to favorite target Davante Adams matching his season average of 22.5 points and appears to be back on track. Pitted against each other, Stafford and Rivers both passed for over 250 yards and 3 scores in reaching just over 22 points. Stafford has been one of the most consistent performers this year, scoring between 12 and 23 every single week, whereas Rivers has scored over 20 in back to back weeks after previously failing to eclipse 15.
On the other end of the spectrum, Carson Wentz, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson all had down weeks even though they were started in at least 60% of leagues. After scoring at least 17 in each of the last five weeks, Wentz was only able to muster 8.6 points in a favorable matchup against Dallas’ Swiss cheese defense. Allen had a season low 12.5 points on 154 yards passing with 23 yards and a touchdown on the ground and has scored fewer than 20 points each of the past four weeks. His true performance is somewhere between this and his scorching start that saw him average 29.8 FPPG. Jackson had his third game with under 15 points as this week’s 208 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns and 65 rushing yards only equated to 14.8 because of 4 turnovers. All of the MVP’s poor performances had come in blowouts prior to Sunday’s matchup against one of the league’s top defenses but still, more than 20 FPPG and QB12 is expected.
Reserve Backs Cash In
For the second straight week, backup running backs took advantage of increased touches to produce breakout outings as four of the top seven scorers were started in fewer than 10% of leagues. Deejay Dallas capitalized on injuries to Seattle’s top three backs to reach 22.8 points on 23 touches, 58 total yards and 2 scores. More than anything, this performance proves that Seattle’s starting running back needs to be in lineups every week. Indianapolis teammates Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins split air and ground work on their way to 21.2 and 20.3 points. Nearly all of Hines production came on 3 receptions for 54 yards and 2 touchdowns but he isn’t a consistent option as two breakout games account for 61% of his points. Wilkins, not Jonathan Taylor, was the driving force fueling the rushing game with 89 yards and a TD although he needs another strong week before he’s a consideration in lineups. Buffalo leaned heavily on their running game in Sunday’s close win as both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss had 14 carries for more than 80 yards but it was Moss who was able to score twice and reach 20.1 points. This has the makings of a committee with Moss getting the bulk of the goal line work so he should be added in all leagues.
The week’s top three performers were the more familiar Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara and Giovani Bernard. Cook returned from a one game absence to shred Green Bay’s defense for 226 total yards, 4 touchdowns and 48.6 points in the best running back performance of the year. Kamara continued his streak of at least 19.9 points in every game with 21 touches, 163 total yards and 25.3 points. Bernard’s 78 total yards and 2 scores helped him surpass 20 points for the second consecutive week as he’s filled in admirably for Joe Mixon.
A number of highly rated backs struggled this week in a surprising twist, none more so than Chiefs rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire who had only 9 touches for 21 yards. That’s single digit touches each of the past two weeks as KC has leaned on Mahomes and the addition of Le’Veon Bell has reduced Helaire’s playing time to the point that he’s more of an RB2. Fellow first rounder Ezekiel Elliott now has 24.4 points combined over the last three weeks after averaging 22.3 FPPG in the first five and sorely misses Dak Prescott. This is actually a great buy low opportunity as Zeke’s production should increase upon Andy Dalton’s return. As mentioned earlier, Taylor had the worst performance of his career with 5.1 points on 13 touches for 31 yards and has not exploded like many believed he would after Marlon Mack went down way back in week 1. He should be in lineups most weeks but is far from the lock many pegged him as. In what was probably his final performance as the lead back in Carolina, Mike Davis ran for an efficient 66 yards on 13 carries but didn’t add much else and only scored 8.7 on Thursday. He’ll still serve as one of the top backups in fantasy but 9.6 FPPG over the last three weeks is a far cry from the 25 he averaged in the prior three. Finally, Kareem Hunt submitted his second single digit performance of the last three weeks with 9.83 points on 16 touches for 73 total yards but remains an RB1 as long as Nick Chubb is sidelined.
The Ebb and Flow Surfaces at Receiver
For the second straight week a Seahawk scored at least 40 points, as DK Metcalf’s 40.1 came on 12/164/2 and was the precise rebound investors were looking for after last week’s 4.3 dud. Following Metcalf is Davante Adams, whose 12 targets resulted in 7 receptions, 53 yards, 3 TDs and 30.3 points. Adams’ biggest challenge is staying healthy, but when he’s on the field he’s one of the best at the position.
The leaderboard after these two consistent options illustrates the streaky nature of the position. Robert Woods comes in at third with 28.8 points despite only scoring 5.5 last week and a 14 FPPG average. Next is Corey Davis, a former top five draft pick, who has had a disappointing career but has double digit points in all five games played this season and scored 26.8 Sunday with an 8/128/1 line. Fifth is Tyreek Hill, who scored 25.8 on four catches for 98 yards and 2 touchdowns. Hill is known for his big play ability and boom or bust production but has scored a touchdown in seven of eight games this season.
Other than Davis, there were a number of widely available receivers who stepped up this week. Many GMs scooped up Brandon Aiyuk after last week’s 17.5-point performance and the rookie was able to best that with 23.1 on 8/91/1 Sunday. He needs to be added in every league. Mike Williams is averaging 16.7 FPPG over his last three games, albeit with totals of 29.7, 1.4 and 21, but is available in more than 50% of leagues and serves a risk/reward option. Rookie Darnell Mooney had the best game of his career with 5/69/1 for 17.9 points and has seen at least 5 targets in every game since week 2. Marvin Jones was dropped in many leagues after starting out cold but he’s now averaging 16 FPPG over the last two weeks and stands to see increased usage if Kenny Golladay misses time.
Amari Cooper, Adam Thielen, Tyler Lockett, DJ Moore and Robby Anderson were all started in at least 75% of leagues yet scored single digit points. Those with Cooper should’ve been wary of the quarterback situation and Anderson did get 9.8 so they get passes despite subpar performances. Thielen had only 5.7 points on 3 catches for 27 yards and now has failed to eclipse 51 yards receiving in four of seven games. Like Hill, Lockett is a boom or bust option who has single digit points in three of seven games but is averaging an insane 31.7 FPPG in the other four. Moore emerged as one of the most consistent options at receiver last season and has at least 49 yards in every game this year but is averaging just over 4 catches per game and has scored in only two of eight contests.
