I’ve noticed a trend in recent player analysis that fades efficient players. I hear it most every week and there are numerous examples, but one case in point is Alvin Kamara. During the preseason, many industry folk would talk about there’s no way the Saints gifted tailback could maintain a 6.1 yards per carry average. So the arrow supposedly pointed down on his 2018 projections. The talking heads were right, but essentially wrong.
Not surprisingly, Kamara’s YPC is down to 4.8….but the fantasy point production is up dramatically, nipping at the heels of Todd Gurley. It’s a mistake to assume that skewed numbers or statistical outliers are necessarily the result of luck, and all else being equal, the backs with the greatest skills tend to be more efficient. And guess what, players with more skills and greater efficiency, sometimes….indeed often, they get more opportunities. Eschewing players because of their unsustainable efficiency alone will sometimes cause you to miss out on the most talented players.
As always there are exceptions. Case in point, the three headed monsters beloved by Kyle Shanahan, Bill Belichick and Doug Pederson. With these situations, you never know what you’re going to get, even with great efficiency from a particular back. It’s often a result of a coaching philosophy that’s hard to break unless a runner imitates Todd Gurley and forces the issue. Raheem Mostert looked great this preseason. I watched the film. That didn’t stop the 49ers from initially burying him on the depth chart by signing an inferior Alfred Morris. Shanahan even admitted that Mostert’s recent move up to #2 might not stick going forward despite the glowing results against the Packers.
Last week we touched upon the upside of the Cleveland Browns skill players as we enter the sweet spot of their schedule. Damion Ratley was spotted hauling in six of eight targets by the lake. If you watched the match vs. the Chargers, you know the stat line could easily have been bigger than that. Todd Haley’s offense gets another boost with the Carlos Hyde trade and the promotion of Nick Chubb. The former Buckeye is no slouch, but the talented rookie has a higher ceiling and may end up pulling more defenders into the box, opening up things outside for the receivers. I was a little surprised that Ratley didn’t get more love on the wire with so many bye weeks in play. Maybe it was fear of Breshad Perriman displacing him now that the former Raven has another week of practice under his belt, or the perception that Antonio Calloway has a solid grasp on the #2. In any event, whoever emerges as the number two should be owned, so track how the injuries and targets shake out. If Ratley makes another splash against Tampa, be prepared to get out your wallet.
I currently have no shares of the Buffalo Bills offense. Nor do I suggest picking any of them up at this point. I do think it’s worth tracking the target distribution with Derek Anderson under center. Zay Jones is mildly interesting.
Theo Riddick is out today, meaning Ameer Abdullah should get a few touches. Not a pickup yet, but just someone to keep on your radar. Similarly, if active, DeAndre Washington’s usage, or lack thereof, is worth monitoring, along with Doug Martin’s effectiveness. The slow plodder formerly known as the ‘Muscle Hampster’ is the lead back for the moment, but that may change. Marshawn Lynch is out at least one month and there are whispers about the IR. The path to a meaningful role in the Raiders offense has gotten shorter.
Josh Reynolds will serve as a WR3 in a high powered Rams offense and may get a dose of cornerback Richard Sherman. It’s a great game to watch to see how well the second year wideout performs as LA get some tasty aerial matchups in the coming weeks, and it’s still not clear just how long Cooper Kupp will be on the sidelines.
Follow Greg @liquidhippo.
