I noticed an email in my inbox late Saturday morning detailing a DFS Free Roll for NFFC Members. I had my lineups already set, so I took five minutes to whip out a lineup and give it a shot. First Place out of 150 Entries was good for a cool 1k. I came in second. What was the recipe for success?
First, I focused on games with a high over/under total in posted lines from Las Vegas. Four games had a total of 48 points or higher: Kansas City at Los Angeles Charges(48), Tampa Bay at New Orleans(49), Cincinnati at Indianapolis(48.5), and Houston at New England.
I wasn’t convinced by preseason film that Deshaun Watson was fully recovered from a torn ACL and Will Fuller was out. New England always focuses on limiting the most dangerous weapon of their opponent. This had the makings of a potential lopsided victory in which Houston was unable to score, with Tom Brady and company taking the air out of the ball in the second half(pun intended). With DeAndre Hopkins likely to be held in check, and Julian Edelman sidelined, that left only one player holding my DFS interest: Rob Gronkowski, whose exorbitant price tag kept me away. I focused on the Kansas City/Los Angeles game, a projected shootout and a weak Chiefs secondary, an affordable quarterback(Philip Rivers) and two primary wideouts that typically receive the most targets(Kennan Allen and Tyreek Hill).
The Chargers have historically shut Travis Kelce down, so I said no to the second best Tight End in the league. If you are stacking the aerial attack of one offense(ie. QB and at least one WR), then it makes sense to grab the best receiver from the opposing teams as a correlated outcome. Saints and Buccaneers were certainly attractive options, but AJ Green and TY Hilton clearly lead the way in targets on their respective teams, and they were a better fit salary wise, as well as being another correlated pair. Mike Thomas was an obvious choice, but the price tag was higher. Mike Evans would in theory be a great related outcome option, but Marcus Lattimore’s history of neutralizing Tampa’s favorite target led me in another direction. James Conner was a free square, and Jesse James was an ultra cheap option at Tight End, picking on the Cleveland Browns, who notoriously did not defend against the TE position well last season. Lastly, Adrian Peterson stuck out as an excellent value. The former Viking’s preseason tape jumped off the screen. AD is a man on a mission, looking healthy and running aggressively, even violently, and filled out my roster with a value.
So, to recap:
1) Filter you players based on high over/under point totals.
2) Pick a game in which both teams are expected to air it out in a competitive shootout, preferably with weak cornerbacks, and select the most targeted receivers and one of the quarterbacks.
3) Choose value running backs on teams expected to win and receive a high number of touches.
4) Pick the best Tight End facing a team that has a history of yielding fantasy points to that position. I still use them occasionally, but points by opposing WR’s and RB’s often have a lot of noise and random game flow implications baked in, but the points by opposing Tight Ends stat is more predictive. Linebackers weak in coverage and/or funnel defenses lend themselves to opposing TE scoring.
5) Don’t factor in % ownership. Even in GPP’s, being contrarian, while it has its place, is way, way oversold. In this case with only 150 teams competing, it makes absolutely no sense.
Greg Ambrosius and Tom Kessenich have put together a weekly DFS contest with the winner getting a free entry into the 2019 NFFC Classic or the 2019 NFFC Primetime, worth $1600, plus a spot in the Week 17 Championship with a chance at a free $2500 NFFC Super League Entry. You only have to beat out 49 other teams to win it.
As is often the case, watching Joe Flacco Thursday Night was painful. Michael Crabtree owners have reason to be concerned.
Lastly, digging really, really deep, I’m keeping an eye on Deonte Thompson in the coming weeks. He’s not worth a roster spot yet, but the former Kansas City Chief has upside if he ever becomes part of the offense. Jakeem Grant of the Miami Dolphins, and Terelle Pryor are the two other wideouts to monitor. Will Dissly impressed at Mile High stadium in week one, sits atop the Seattle Seahawks depth chart and remains on the wire in most NFFC leagues. I’m going to watch him this week to see if he’ll be involved in the offense again, or if what we saw a week a go was just a flash in the pan. Remember, Doug Baldwin is out, and none of Seattle’s other aerial weapons stand out, so it will be interesting to see how Russell Wilson metes out targets to again.
Follow Greg @liquidhippo!
