Week 14 Reactions and Navigating the Playoffs
If you’re reading this, it most likely means you’ve experienced a successful fantasy football season and are equipped with the skills to adapt to the ever-changing landscape. Unheralded players are regularly thrust into relevant roles while stars who carried your team all year are prime candidates for a reduced load if their team has already locked up playoff positioning, especially in weeks 16 and 17. Every year there’s a waiver wire gem, and often times more than one, that can carry your team to the championship. Last season it was the stack of Breshad Perriman and Jameis Winston, in 2018 Jets teammates Elijah McGuire and Robby Anderson won the season for many GMs and other notable late season runs in recent memory have stemmed from Tim Hightower and Bryce Brown.
Week 14 illustrated this trend perfectly. Three of the top four quarterbacks were started in fewerthan 10% of leagues, four of the top five running backs in fewer than 80% and five of the twelve best receivers in fewer than a third. It’s one thing to add these players, but starting them is an entirely different venture. In one of my leagues where I needed a win this week to make the playoffs, I started Cam Akers and Brandon Aiyuk over Giovani Bernard and Robert Woods. Its choices like this that can decide your fantasy fate.
Young QBs Make Waves
It shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone that Aaron Rodgers leads the position with 30.9 points, but following the veteran is the trio of Tua Tagovailoa, Drew Lock and Mitchell Trubisky. Tagovailoa nearly led a 20-point comeback against Kansas City and concluded his day with 340 total yards, 3 scores and 27 points. The rookie was able to take advantage of a favorable game script despite a stiff Chiefs’ secondary which portends favorably for his rest of season outlook. Keep him on the bench against New England next week, but a week 16 date with Las Vegas is a potential streamer. Drew Lock completed 78% of his passes for 280 yards, 4 touchdowns and 25.6 points and a match with a soft Buffalo secondary is on tap next week which keeps Lock in play in deeper leagues. Mitchell Trubisky led a Chicago rout of Houston with 25 points on 290 total yards and 3 passing touchdowns in delivering a much needed win but only has mediocre matchups over the final three games.
The final young, intriguing option is Philadelphia rookie Jalen Hurts, who revitalized a team that was in free fall with a surprising victory over New Orleans. He only threw for 167 yards and 1 TD but ran for another 106 on 18 carries in scoring 19.3 points and gets to face Arizona next week in what should be a high scoring affair. Similarly, Hurts’ counterpart Sunday, Taysom Hill, faces Kansas City next week and should receive ample opportunity to produce as long as Drew Brees remains out. After 18.9 points Sunday, Hill is averaging 21.1 FPPG in four starts this year.
Forgotten Backs Reemerge
Derrick Henry rebounded for his third game of at least 35 points this year, the same as the number of games he’s scored under 9, and I’ve chronicled his sporadic production of late. Following Henry is a group of runners who received significant attention earlier this year but had lost their luster in recent weeks, none more so than Jonathan Taylor who exploded for 30.5 points on 150 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. After totaling 20.2 points in weeks 8-10, the Wisconsin product is averaging 22.8 FPPG over the last three weeks and could be a league winner, especially if he was acquired via trade. Fellow rookie Cam Akers tore up New England Thursday for 21.4 points on 31 touches and no scores. He’s received 50/58 running back carries over the last two weeks and is a must start moving forward after being a nonfactor essentially all season.
Although not quite as extreme, the other successful running backs this week had been slumping of late. Miles Sanders, who went in the first round of some leagues, was started in only 66% of ESPN leagues thanks to an average of 6.1 FPPG over the last three weeks and a matchup against New Orleans number one ranked run defense. Of course, this meant he broke off an 82-yard touchdown in totaling 18 touches for 136 yards, 2 touchdowns and 29.6 points. Look for Sanders to be a key contributor in the home stretch. Mike Davis erupted when Christian McCaffrey was first injured before failing to reach double digits from weeks 7-10, but scored 26.3 Sunday and is averaging 17.7 FPPG over the last 3 weeks. He needs to be in all lineups with a matchup against Green Bay’s soft front on the docket next. David Montgomery averaged 12.3 FPPG in weeks 1-9, missed the next two weeks with injury and bye and is at 25.6 FPPG over the last three weeks, which have come against the bottom three run defenses in the league. He’s the definition of a matchup play and, as luck would have it, has three more favorable games ahead to conclude the season.
Reliable Receivers Followed by Surging Plays
Seven of the top eight receivers on the week are weekly locks in Stefon Diggs, Allen Robinson, Calvin Ridley, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, A.J. Brown and DeAndre Hopkins, with T.Y. Hilton right in the middle of the bunch. Hilton has been perhaps the most enigmatic player in fantasy this year, as he’s posted a season high point total each of the last three weeks in averaging 22.9 FPPG over this stretch compared to 6.9 FPPG prior. Be wary of a date with Pittsburgh in week 16 but Hilton should be started the other two weeks.
The next four receivers were started in a combined 36.7% of leagues and all except for Aiyuk are available in more than two thirds of leagues. KJ Hamler hauled in 2 of 3 targets for 86 yards and 2 scores in reaching 22.6 points on the day, but the rookie isn’t seeing enough targets to be a consistent option. Aiyuk was thrown at a whopping 16 times for a 10/119/0 line and 21.9 points. Injury ravaged San Francisco is funneling targets to their best play makers and that’s clearly Aiyuk, who’s averaging 20.5 FPPG in his last five games. With three quality matchups left this year, Aiyuk should be in nearly all lineups. Nelson Agholor posted his sixth game of at least 13 points this season with 21 on 5/100/1 but faces a formidable Chargers secondary next week so better options are available. Marquez Valdes-Scantling scored 20.5 on 6 receptions for 85 yards and a score but failed to record a catch each of the past two weeks and isn’t a reliable option despite exhibiting solid potential.
A slew of quality receivers struggled on the day, especially in the Minnesota Tampa Bay game. Kirk Cousins and Tom Brady combined for just 421 passing yards, which led to total of 9.9, 9.9, 8.6, 6.9 and 4.5 for Justin Jefferson, Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Adam Thielen and Chris Godwin. Jefferson and Thielen are must-starts and the Buc’s trio get three tantalizing matchups to close the season so don’t be too concerned. Terry McLaurin has totaled 7.8 points over his last two games and isn’t startable next week if Dwayne Haskins is at quarterback even though Seattle is at the bottom of the league against receivers. No Pittsburgh pass-catcher topped 55 yards, which meant Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool struggled as a result of failing to reach the end zone. The team is trending downward so be cautious of the pair and Juju Smith-Schuster after next week’s game in Cincinnati. Corey Davis led all receivers in scoring last week but only scored 4.4 this week although it was mostly due to game script and Henry’s dominance so he remains a solid weekly option. DeVante Parker didn’t record a catch on 2 targets before exiting Sunday’s game early and should be out of lineups against New England next week.
