Who should I add? Who should I drop? Both are questions fantasy baseball mangers are struggling to answer when evaluating their teams three weeks into the fantasy baseball season. Some argue it’s too early to take a chance on a Jordan Lyles (six innings, three hits, 10 strikeout performance vs Cubs), where others are wrestling with the idea of dropping a slow starting Julio Urias (13.2 IP, 5.27 ERA).
I tend to take the approach of extreme caution when making a roster decision based only on three weeks of a fantasy baseball season. In this week’s column, I’ll discuss players you should consider holding onto and players you should exercise extreme caution when looking to add.
Franmil Reyes (OF, SD) – Hold
Reyes came out of spring training seemingly with the starting job in right field. Since then, he’s had a tough go of it at the plate, hitting a miserable .184 in 38 at-bats. If that wasn’t bad enough, Reyes has lost a bit of playing time to the streaky Hunter Renfroe (.262, 4 HRs, in 42 at-bats). Owners of Reyes are taking a deep look at the crowded San Diego outfield and the slow start for Reyes and cutting ties with the big outfielder in the hopes of landing an impact bat off waivers. I own Reyes in my 12 Team H2H Points league, and he isn’t going anywhere. I am not thrilled with start to the season, but I am encouraged with his BB/K rate (5 BBs to 7 Ks), the fact that he has hit three homers in his last six games, and has a trip to hitter friendly Coors Field to start week. Reyes owners should be wise to keep Reyes in their lineup. I am, and I can’t wait for him to start smashing.
Julio Urias (SP, LAD) – Hold
Urias owners have been put in a difficult situation already this season. He started brilliantly against the San Francisco Giants, twirling five innings of three-hit ball with seven Ks and no walks. Since then, Urias has hit a rough patch giving up eight ER in just over eight innings (8.2) with five walks ad six Ks. The Dodgers have shown to be unpredictable with their handing of the starting staff the last two seasons, and with Ryu and Rich Hill knocking on the door Urias owners are right in thinking a bullpen stint is quickly looming. My feelings are different — Urias is still just 22 years old and has ace-level upside. His stuff isn’t where it needs to be now, but I am comfortable having Urias figure it out in the bullpen for awhile. Hill and Ryu will inevitably hit the IL again, and Urias will be fully ready to step in and shoulder the load. I’m excited for that to happen and can’t wait to benefit from his production.
Jordan Lyles (SP, PIT) – Don’t add
Fantasy owners are rushing to the waiver wire to add the big Pirate right hander. He carved up the Chicago Cubs with 10 strikeouts in six innings and he looked masterful doing it. I, on the other hand, won’t be rushing to grab Lyles off the wire. I think Lyles is more like the pitcher who threw five IP with three BBs and two Ks against the Reds in his first start of the season. Lyles has only started more than 10 times once, and that was when he was in Colorado back in 2015. I’m a big fan of adding someone who has done it before, and Lyles hasn’t proven that. I’ll pass on this flash in the pan, and target other SPs later in the year.
Max Fried (SP, LAA) – Don’t add
Fried is similar to Lyles in the sense that he dominated a Chicago Cubs lineup, but that wasn’t the start that caught everyone’s attention. Fried went into the most hitter friendly ballpark in MLB — Coors Field — took the momentum from the Cubs win, and confused the Rockies hitters for 0 ER, four strikeouts over six innings, earning a quality start and win. I like what I have seen from Fried, but Atlanta has so many arms, and two big ones are coming back from the IL (Mike Foltynewicz and Kevin Gausman). Fried has a very small margin for error for this year, and a subpar outing could mean a trip back to the minors. Managers can ride Fried for now, but I don’t see the ride lasting long. I have my eyes set on Mike Soroka, so I’ll wait for it to be his turn to fill out the Braves starting five.
Daniel Vogelbach (1B, SEA) – Don’t add
Big Dan is how Daniel Vogelbach is known around the league, and “Big” he has been to start the 2019 MLB campaign. He has six homers in 33 at-bats. Vogelbach received an opportunity to play early in the season because of injuries, and he has found himself producing in the middle of the Mariners lineup. The opportunities have come for Vogelbach before, but he has never shown this much promise. Owners can’t wait to get their hands on the slugger, but I’m cautious. I still have 2018 in the back of my mind when it comes to Vogelbach. He played in 33 games that year and hit a next to nothing .207. With the injury history of Vogelbach, and his .207 average only being a year removed, I’ll pass and have hopes to land an impact bat later.
