We’ve now reached mid-June and service time considerations are no longer as impactful in delaying the call-ups of otherwise big-league ready prospects. Further, injury concerns and lack of depth on MLB rosters expedite the paths of younger players. As such, it’s time we take a deeper look into some fantasy useful names that are not already on rosters. This does not mean it’s time to look at Jarred Kelenic and Wander Franco, those are names you already (should!) know and are already stashed on rosters somewhere, so deep diving into their profiles isn’t particularly actionable. These are lesser-known guys with elite skills doing something that can help your fantasy team. Let’s get after it!
Shane Baz
This is almost certainly a name you know, but you might not know exactly what Baz has been up to this season. In short, it seems as though he’s done the impossible. Prior to his recent promotion to Triple-A, Baz logged 32 innings in Double-A wherein he struck out 49 of the 120 hitters he faced, and walked only two. For those of us that prefer our heroic feats documented as percentages, that’s good for a 40.8% K rate and a 1.7% BB rate. Coupled with the surface results being just as impressive (.179 BAA and .248 ERA through that same period), Baz certainly earned his promotion. He didn’t look overmatched in Triple-A either, striking out five in four innings and only allowing a single run.
The question with Baz is less to do with his own skill set, and more to do with how protective the Rays are with their top prospects. For almost any other team, Wander Franco, the consensus top prospect in each of the last two seasons, would already be in the Show with an everyday role. Alas, the Rays and their combination of prospect management and service time manipulation will keep Baz down as long as he doesn’t completely force the issue, but he certainly seems to be doing his part in that regard thus far this season. If Baz can stay healthy, there’s no reason he shouldn’t be on the major league roster later this season and will bring with him an elite volume of strikeouts as well as very strong ratios.
What’s more, since he is unlikely to be overextended due to the Rays focus on his development, he should be highly efficient in the innings he does pitch. So while likely not a league winner, Baz will certainly provide a boost while also being a high quality asset for dynasty leagues. In DFS, we’ll need to be weary of expectations on pitch count and how long of a leash he’ll have since the Rays don’t let anyone generally face the order a third time through, but if all of that also results in some salary savings, there can be opportunity there as well.
Cal Raleigh
Despite a name that suggests he is seemingly destined for owning a chain of car dealerships on the Tobacco Road, Raleigh has come into his own this year as an offensive force for the Mariners Triple-A affiliate in Tacoma. While having previously shown some power, with 22 homers across 82 games in High-A in 2019, he also struck out quite a bit in his first taste of Double-A, which lead many to believe he might have a slower development path, and that Tom Murphy et al would remain behind the dish for some time.
Raleigh is doing his part to shorten that timeline and is on an absolute tear through 30 games of Triple-A, boasting a ridiculous .355/.408/.669 slash and a .315 ISO. What’s more, he’s only struck out 12% of the time, a vast improvement over not only the 30% that was result of his struggles in Double-A, but over even his Low-A and High-A numbers as well. While the sample is still quite small, 142 plate appearances against Triple-A pitching is not to be dismissed completely, and it’s entirely possible that he is a different player with a different skill set than the one that struck out so much.
As for his potential as a big leaguer- this is a rebuilding Mariners team that has no entrenched option. Tom Murphy has some power but strikes out too much even by today’s standards. A 6’3, 215 lb., 24-year-old switch hitting catcher that hits for average and power, currently riding a 23-game hitting streak, well it might not be the worst option. The Mariners are in no real danger of competing for the division, with Murphy or Raleigh, so we may see him sooner than later. He won’t play every day, but catchers don’t play every day, so there’s less prospect playing time risk with catchers than other hitters, as the opportunity cost is so much less. And if he can win the majority of the playing time this season, he will not only be useful in redraft, but a tremendous asset in dynasty as a pillar of the Mariners rebuild, and on days he gets a decent lineup spot, a likely salary saver of a DFS option.
Jacob Robson
While you were almost certainly familiar with Baz, and if a fan of Mariners prospects and catching prospects had at least heard of Raleigh, you would be excused for having a puzzled look and an audible “who” in response to seeing Robson listed here. You won’t find him on any top 100 lists, and he didn’t make the cut of Fangraphs top 42 prospects in the Tigers system alone at the start of the 2021 season. And yet, here we are talking about him anyway, so he must be doing something interesting.
As it turns out, he is doing several interesting things, especially this season. He has always reached base via the walk a lot, and this year’s 15.4% BB rate in Triple-A is no different. He has generally struck out a good amount as well, although his Triple-A K% is down to 20.5% from the consistently 25%ish rate he put up across multiple stints in Double-A.
Where it gets *really* interesting though is when he neither walks nor strikes out. It’s essentially impossible to get him out if he puts the ball in play. No, really. In 82 Plate appearances in Double-A this season, his BABIP was .605, resulting in a .424 batting average. And while that is not something that will continue (and didn’t, he is back down to a still all-worldly .435 BABIP in Triple-A this year), it is worth pointing out that he has been a consistently high BABIP guy his entire minor league career. His lowest career BABIP in Double and Triple-A is .368:
- 2018 Double-A: .382 BABIP
- 2018 Triple-A: .406 BABIP
- 2019 Triple-A: .368 BABIP
- 2021 Double-A: .605 BABIP
- 2021 Triple-A: .435 BABIP
We don’t have Statcast data of course, but I would venture to guess he is likely hitting the ball extremely hard when he elects to hit it. Further, in 2021, his ISO has jumped from what is typically in the low-.100s across his minor league career at all levels to a whopping .288 at Double-A and .273 at Triple-A. Robson certainly seems to be figuring it out.
So, while he wasn’t on anyone’s radar (not even the Tigers themselves), Robson may end up a force to be reckoned with if he gets the call to the big leagues. Given the overall lack of talent on the Tigers major league roster, this could be sooner than later, and we would be well served to take advantage as soon as the opportunity presents itself, given Robson’s unreal track record of turning contact into production.
