I am back after a short hiatus, so I wanted to come back with some helpful tips for fantasy baseball managers. I am going to give you three players you may not think of as the type players who can lead you to the “promised land” this season, but you should consider as foundational pieces to your roster. These players have exceeded all expectations, come out of nowhere, and surprised us with how well they have done this season. These players are expected to continue to do well, and whom you should keep if you have them already, or try to acquire if they are not on your roster. Players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Kyle Tucker will not show up on this list because nobody is surprised to see them do so well. Players like Carlos Rodon also will not show up on this list because it is unlikely he continues to be this good all season. The following players are strictly players whom have far exceeded expectations, and whom you should plan on riding until the end.
Strike 1
One player who is having a career year is Philadelphia Phillies Starting Pitcher Zack Wheeler. He currently sits at a 2.29 ERA, a .90 WHIP, an 11 K/9 rate, and a 1.79 BB/9 rate, all of which would be career bests if the season ended now. The number that likely stands out most to people is the 11 K/9 rate, which is far above any strikeout per nine inning rate that he has had previously. Prior to this season, his 2014 9 K/9 rate was his highest.
Wheeler has been a good pitcher in the past, but it is surprising to see him do so well this year. Some may think that he is a product of the spin rate movement, but those people would, for the most part, be incorrect. He has barely increased any of his pitches’ RPM, ranging anywhere from losing 22 RPM (on his slider, which grades as his second best pitch), to adding only 73 RPM (to his changeup, which he uses only 4% of the time).
Instead, Wheeler seems to have tweaked his delivery to add a speed to his pitches – his fastball, sinker, slider, change, and curveball speeds are all up – and has modified his pitch selection. These tangible things legitimize his spike in strikeout rate. This season, he has thrown his slider 10% more often than last season, while cutting down on the usage rate of his sinker, changeup, and curveball. The effect of these changes is that his pitches have been incredibly difficult to hit. The highest batting average against any of his pitches is .230 against his sinker (.226 expected batting average against), and .226 against his fastball (.225 xBA against).
Finally, most people will turn to the BABIP and HR/FB rate for pitchers to look for elements of good and bad luck, but Wheeler’s stats are in a normal range. His .272 BABIP is only 20 points lower than normal, and his 10.3% HR/FB rate is .4% lower than his career rate, and is around the league average.
Wheeler is an ace this season and should be trusted as one that can lead your team to a championship win.
Strike 2
Another player that has seemingly come out of nowhere and been very good is Texas Rangers Outfielder Adolis Garcia. He is currently batting .275 with 30 runs, 16 home runs, 46 RBI, and 7 stolen bases. Garcia has been a pleasant surprise on a team full of under the radar talent, partially because the Rangers are not very good.
Garcia’s 16 home runs are tied for fifth best in baseball – Rafael Devers is a notable name who also has 16 homers so far. His 46 RBI are tied for sixth best in baseball – he is tied with Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh, and Fernando Tatis Jr.
Most projections systems like Steamer, THE BAT, and ZiPS think Garcia will hit between .220-.230 the rest of the way, but his current BABIP/batting average combo suggest otherwise. A .324 BABIP is very reasonable, and while it is unlikely he keeps up his .275 batting average over the rest of the season, a .250 batting average is not out of the question.
What fantasy managers should like most about Adolis Garcia is his hard contact. He has a 15.5% barrel rate, which is tenth best in baseball. That is a better barrel rate than Vlad Jr., Yordan Alvarez, and Juan Soto. He also possesses a 49% hard-hit rate and a 43% hard contact rate. The hard contact helps make the 28% HR/FB rate more realistic, and helps make the case for his home run pace to continue.
If anything, Garcia’s lack of discipline will hurt his batting average, but there is no doubt that as long as he is healthy, he will continue to hit for power, and will even swipe a few bags as well. It is time to hop on the Garcia Train.
Strike 3
It is hard to talk about incredible surprises this season and not mention San Francisco Giants Starting Pitcher Kevin Gausman. He is having a ridiculous year after being an average to below average pitcher since his call up in 2013.
In an episode of my podcast Fastball Fantasy Baseball from December 2020, I mentioned Kevin Gausman as the true ace of the Giants’ pitching staff going into this season. I noted that he increased his spin rate on every pitch leading to an increase in K/9 rate, and modified his pitch selection. In the same episode, I also pointed out that Gausman’s improvement could lead to an improvement for Anthony DeSclafani, simply based on how the Giants’ pitching staff helped Gausman so much, but now I am just tooting my own horn.
Kevin Gausman currently has a 1.43 ERA, a .78 WHIP, and a 1.98 BB/9 rate, all of which would be career bests for him. He also has a 10.7 K/9 rate, which would be his second best rate of his career behind last season’s 11.9 K/9 rate.
While Zack Wheeler’s ERA seems more sustainable, Gausman’s seems less so. His .213 BABIP and 7.9% HR/FB rate are well below average, but advanced ERA metrics like xERA/FIP/xFIP/SIERA all put his projected ERA around 2.40-3, which still makes him a very good pitcher.
Where Gausman has excelled this season is limiting hard contact. He is allowing a 6.7% barrel rate against his pitches, which is one of the lowest rates of his career. By continuing to modify his pitch selection, he has been able to keep batters guessing, and they have not been able to get good wood on the ball.
Since 2014, he has gradually decreased the usage of his fastball, and since joining the Giants, has significantly increased the usage of his slider. One major reason for his success is the increased usage of his splitter, which grades as his best pitch, just ahead of his fastball. His splitter has a .115 batting average against (.150 xBA against), and a 47% whiff rate – meaning nearly half the time that he throws it, batters swing and miss.
Nobody had Gausman in their top 10 pitchers this season, but it might be time to start rethinking things. Even if the ERA does come up to a mid-2 or low-3 ERA, there is still an argument to be made for Gausman as a top 10 pitcher this season. He should be a ride-or-die for you this year, and if you don’t have him, you should break the bank to acquire him.
