There is just a week left until the MLB trade deadine, and the rumor mill is running full tilt. It’s not only the contending teams that are active and engaged. All 30 clubs’ general managers and presidents of baseball operations are having conversations with their counterparts across the league, trying to find ways to improve their teams – for the stretch run, or the future.
Sometimes, it’s not clear where to put teams. Atlanta, Philadelphia, Miami, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona and San Francisco are all contenders in the National League. Texas, Houston, Minnesota, Cleveland and the entire AL East are contenders in the American League. But there are others pretenders that may think they’re contenders.
What about Seattle, the Los Angeles Angels, San Diego and the Chicago Cubs? The latter is of great interest because the Cubs have a few of the top trade targets on the market – if they’re selling. But they are in third place, only three games below .500 at the end of the day on Sunday in the weak NL Central. Cubs General Manager Carter Hawkins may not be selling.
The trade deadline also stirs excitement in fantasy baseball, as thousands of team managers want to know how trades could affect them. A team upgrade for a starting pitcher will move the needle more than a position player, so I am going to focus on five top names on the market. However, first a word about relief pitchers, since this is something very important to me.
I struggle every year to get enough saves on my teams. The reason is I hate paying up for relief pitchers in the draft, or with FAAB dollars. Days after the draft in The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational, Mets closer Edwin Diaz suffered a season-ending injury in a senseless post-game celebration. Dave Robertson went for $145 in the first FAAB waiver run of the season.
I bid on Robertson, but my bid fell far short. Instead, I settled for Adam Ottavino. I could justify spending $11 of FAAB for Ottavino because he was considered to be a possible co-closer alongside Robertson. That didn’t pan out. Robertson has 15 saves and a stellar 2.08 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Ottavino has a less-than-stellar 3.66 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and only six saves.
I have hung on to Ottavino for four months, and it might just pay off. If Robertson gets moved at the deadline, Ottavino could be the de facto closer for the “other” New York team. No one will care about that except Ottavino’s fantasy managers. However, if Robertson winds up wearing Dodger blue, that will be a negative for me because I also have Evan Phillips rostered.
If you’ve missed my point, here it is. The trades that make the headlines next Tuesday probably won’t be the same trades fantasy managers are interested in. There will be a lot of interest in where Robertson lands. He would displace Phillips as the closer in Los Angeles. He might also take the job from Clay Holmes in New York. I personally hope he stays in the Big Apple.
The biggest name on the market is Shohei Ohtani. In case you haven’t heard this guy can not only pitch, but he can hit, too. In case you missed it, I sang the praises of Ohtani a couple of weeks ago. But whether Angels general manager Perry Minasian decides to move the two-way superstar doesn’t have a big impact on the fantasy world. Ohtani is great anywhere.
As the trade winds rise, there’s no better place to be than Chicago, with three of the top starting pitcher trade targets playing their home games in Chicago. If you’re a fantasy manager with one of these hurlers on your roster, you would love to see your player get a team upgrade in August. It’s likely that one or more of them will have a new team late on August 1st.
MARCUS STROMAN, CHICAGO CUBS
Marcus Stroman is a trade target for several contenders. The 32-year-old All Star has been one of the NL’s top starting pitchers this season, although he’s pretty bad in the past month. Stroman is 10-7, with a 3.09 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. He has 105 strikeouts in 2023. But he’s posted a 6.46 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, with a 22:12:K:BB across 23.2 innings over his past five starts.
It’s unlikely that Stroman’s recent struggles have caused his stock to tumble enough to dissuade suitors from pursuing him. The teams with the highest payrolls are the ones you’d expect to land him. But only if the team is a contender. The Mets have a worse record than the Cubs, so I don’t expect them to be in the mix. But the Dodgers, Yankees and Astros are interested.
DYLAN CEASE, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
If Stroman would benefit from a new address, Dylan Cease would benefit even more. The Windy City’s northside team has a much better lineup than the southside team, and they are definitely sellers on August 1st. The problem is that Cease is not having a subpar year. After a tremendous year in 2022, Cease has struggled. But he’s been better recently, and his stock is up.
Once again, the Astros are at the top of the list, and their interest in the White Sox hurlers simply will not cease (sorry, I couldn’t resist). However, the Dodgers and Yankees are also interested in Cease – if the asking price is reasonable. Rumor has it that Chicago’s asking price is high, and none of these teams may be willing to part with the young players necessary to seal the deal.
LUCAS GIOLITO, CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Lucas Giolito may be a better pitcher than Cease, but he’s not worth as much because the latter is under team control until 2025. Giolito will be a free agent at the end of the season. With the asking price lower, Giolito will probably be wearing a new uniform in August. Again, the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees top the list, but Philadelphia and Arizona are also in the mix.
Giolito could be nothing more than a two-month rental for his new team, and that’s why a team like the Diamondbacks could get him. But I could also see the Astros signing him if they don’t get Cease. But the Dodgers also have a huge need for pitching help this season. They need both starters and relievers, and Giolito could clearly fill the team’s need for a starter.
JORDAN MONTGOMERY, ST. LOUIS
Just like the White Sox, the Cardinals have been abysmal on the field this season and are expected to be sellers at the deadline. Currently tied for last in the NL Central, the Cardinals are sellers for the first time in more than 30 years. Jordan Montgomery, a free agent at the end of the season, would be a solid backend rotational piece for the any contending team.
Guess who are the top teams trying to land Montgomery. If you guessed the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees, you would be right. The Yankees would be a homecoming for Montgomery. The Dodgers are desperate for help in their rotation, and the Astros would also benefit. A few other teams have also slipped into the picture – Baltimore, Toronto and Minnesota.
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ, DETROIT
Unlike the Cardinals, the Tigers are no strangers to selling at the deadline. Unlike the Cardinals, they don’t have a lot of assets to move. But they have one – Eduardo Rodriguez. Rogriguez, who returned from a finger injury in early July after a six-week absence, has a 2.69 ERA and 0.97 WHIP for the season. After a rocky initial outing, he has been solid in July.
The reason why I think this deal will get done is because left-handed starters don’t hit the market very often. Okay, I’m not going to ask you to guess who’s on top of the list of teams interested in Rodriguez. Of course, it’s the Astros, Dodgers and Yankees. However, the Orioles and Rangers are also in the mix. Wherever he winds up, E-Rod gets a big team upgrade.
There’s really not a lot of actionable advice in this column except for possibly adding Rodriguez, if he’s available on your waiver wire. It’s unlikely that the other four are on waivers, although stranger things have happened. If you want to make a sneaky move, scoop up Ottavino this week and see if I’m right about him becoming the new closer for the Mets. It’s just a thought.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
