Most fantasy baseball head-to-head leagues are either in or approaching their playoffs. Regardless of a team’s position in the fantasy playoffs, the goal should always be to win the matchup, and many leagues have penalties for losing (and if they do not, they should!) to encourage teams to continue to compete. What happens, though, when players that have been on a team’s fantasy roster go cold all of a sudden during the fantasy playoffs? What do fantasy managers do with injured players who have no timetable to return, or players expected to be out for the final few weeks of the season, while there are players on waivers who are doing well? Fantasy managers may have to make difficult decisions at this time, and hopefully this will help identify a few players worth cutting and a few worth rostering down the stretch. One note is that any players in redraft leagues that are underperforming should be on the chopping block. Those decisions may be more difficult in keeper or dynasty leagues.
Strike 1
One very hot waiver wire add throughout the season, but especially in the last few weeks is Chicago Cubs corner infielder and outfielder Patrick Wisdom. He is the most added player in ESPN leagues over the last week, and during that period has gone from 29% rostered to 53% rostered. In the last 15 days, Wisdom has 10 runs, 7 home runs, 13 RBI, and a .262 batting average.
His current batting average of .256 is buoyed by a very high .342 BABIP without the benefit of a high line drive rate. Wisdom also possesses a strikeout rate hovering around 40%, which combined with a high BABIP suggest regression to his batting average is imminent.
While Wisdom has been showing elite hard contact, his 49% fly ball rate and 35% HR/FB rate draw suspicion to the legitimacy of his power surge. What helps his case for continuing to hit for power, though, are a 17% barrel rate, 53% hard-hit rate, and a 47% hard contact rate. Those metrics profile somewhere in between what Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge are doing this season. Considering all, it is unlikely he continues to hit home runs at his current pace, but there are only a few more weeks in the season and he could potentially still hit for decent power numbers during that time. He may reap the benefits of a small sample size, and so could fantasy managers.
The question then is, “Who do I drop?” One cut candidate should be Anthony Rizzo, who has been outperformed by Yankees teammate Luke Voit over the last 15 days. While Rizzo has improved over the last week, he is facing competition for playing time (and over both the last week and the last 15 days, Wisdom has outpaced both in all roto categories).
Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger is another player that fantasy managers should consider dropping for Patrick Wisdom. Bellinger has grossly underperformed this season and is still rostered in 93% of ESPN leagues.
Strike 2
Another player that fantasy managers should be looking to add for the last few weeks of the season is Kansas City middle infielder Nicky Lopez who is rostered in 35% of ESPN leagues. In the last 15 days, Lopez has five steals and a .418 batting average. He has 18 steals this season in 427 plate appearances, good for the 11th most steals in baseball (he also has the fewest PAs of anyone inside the top 15 in steals). Steals are where his greatest value resides.
Lopez is not a hard hitter in any sense of the word; in fact, he has some of the worst hard contact metrics in baseball. Despite that, he gets on base about 36% of the time and when he gets on base, he is one of the best base stealers in the game. In 18 attempts, he has not been caught.
He is also a great pick up for fantasy managers in points leagues because he walks 9% of the time and strikes out only 13% of the time.
One player that managers should consider dropping for Lopez is Colorado infielder Ryan McMahon who is rostered in 92% of ESPN leagues. Despite playing in Colorado, McMahon only has two home runs in the last two weeks and is batting .178 during that time frame. Lopez is outpacing McMahon in runs, steals, and batting average during that time and has one fewer home run and RBI.
Fellow second basemen Adam Frazier and David Fletcher have had some hot streaks throughout the season, but have gone cold in the last two weeks. Nicky Lopez has outperformed both recently, and is worth adding at their expense. Both players are rostered in over 78% of ESPN leagues, and Lopez is widely available.
Strike 3
Over the last two weeks, Cubs outfielder Ian Happ and Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera have both looked good. Both have a batting average over .350 for the last 15 days, and both hit four home runs during that period. Another interesting outfielder to add is Bradley Zimmer in Cleveland, who has a .250 batting average over the last 15 days, but also has two home runs and four steals. Baltimore outfielder Anthony Santander is batting .256 with four home runs in the last two weeks, while Angels outfielder Brandon Marsh is batting over .400. Houston outfielder Jake Myers and Colorado outfielder and second baseman Garrett Hampson are both batting over .300 and are producing well in the last two weeks. All of the players above are rostered in 40% of ESPN leagues are fewer; some are even rostered as low as a 2% rate.
Who is on the outfield chopping block? Houston outfielder Michael Brantley is rostered in 98% of ESPN leagues, yet is only batting .188 in the last 15 days. Brantley is usually rostered in order to help fantasy managers with batting average, which he is not currently doing. This is something fantasy managers should take into account for the last few weeks of the season. Players like Brantley have name value, but if they are not producing and someone else is, then they should make the switch.
Other outfielders have struggled over the last two weeks including Trent Grisham, Randal Grichuk, and Mark Canha, rostered in ESPN leagues at 92%, 81%, and 77% respectively. In non-keeper or dynasty leagues, fantasy managers should be considering dropping them for hotter hitters.
One player that managers should consider dropping is Angels outfielder Mike Trout (yes, it is controversial), who has no timetable for returning from his strained calf. Obviously, in a keeper or dynasty league this is a much tougher decision to make. Both Dodgers outfielder Mookie Betts and Red Sox outfielder JD Martinez are struggling over the last 15 days, and managers should consider ignoring the name value and focus on the production when considering to drop them in non-keeper or dynasty leagues. Neither one has more than a home run in the last 15 days, and both are batting .208 or below.
Fantasy managers often struggle with dropping or adding players, but when it comes to the fantasy playoffs, they have to do whatever it takes to win, and that includes making tough decisions and dropping players they never thought they would.
