When a major league team is doing well, that means that the players on that team are producing. Tampa has been the hottest team of the last week, winning nine of their last 10 games. The problem in situations like this is that the best players on the team are usually rostered in fantasy baseball leagues. In this article, you will find three Rays that are under-rostered or undervalued that you should be targeting in your fantasy baseball leagues. Next week, I will investigate one of the worst teams in baseball to show you that can find productive players on a major league team that is often ignored as a place to find fantasy baseball studs.
Strike 1
Since moving on from Willy Adames, Tampa Bay has been firing on all cylinders. They are finally getting production from Austin Meadows and Randy Arozarena, but that is to be expected. Meadows is rostered in 98% of ESPN leagues and has an ESPN ADP of pick 108. Similarly, Arozarena is rostered in 98% of ESPN leagues and was drafted as a top 75 overall player. Joey Wendle has had a scorching start to 2021, and although he has an ESPN ADP of 228, he’s been added so much that he is now rostered in 93% of ESPN leagues.
Outside of those three players, fantasy managers should target catcher Mike Zunino. With Zunino, fantasy managers should know what they are getting. Zunino has a career .201 batting average, and is currently batting .207. He has a 39.8% strikeout rate, and has the third most strikeouts out of all catchers in the majors.
Zunino also leads all catchers in home runs. His BABIP is a little under his career number, which may lead to a slight increase in batting average (maybe to .210 or so). He also has incredible hard contact numbers. He has a 27% barrel rate, which is better than Ronald Acuna and Aaron Judge. His 117 MPH max exit velocity is comparable to Vlad Guerrero Jr. Zunino also has a 41% hard contact rate. All of the hard contact legitimizes the power numbers.
Mike Zunino is a solid player at a premium position, and is only rostered in 20% of ESPN leagues. Yasmani Grandal is rostered in 76% of ESPN leagues, yet Zunino has double the home runs, a better batting average, and more RBI than Grandal. Mitch Garver, Sean Murphy, Omar Narvaez, Travis d’Arnaud (on the 60 day IL), and James McCann are all rostered in more leagues than Zunino, and I would rather have Zunino over all of them.
Strike 2
Another underrated and undervalued Tampa player is outfielder Manuel Margot. He has never quite lived up to the hype from his prospect days when he was viewed as a potential 20/20 player. Margot is just about at the 50% rostered threshold in ESPN leagues, but that number should be higher.
Margot is not going to wow anyone with his power, but he has legit 20-steal potential. In 2019, only 21 players stole 20 or more bases, and only 3 players did that in fewer plate appearances than Margot. Margot is currently on pace for the most plate appearances of his career. He could also end up with career highs in home runs, runs, and RBI this season.
Margot has made some obvious adjustments to his swing. His 5.5% barrel rate is not very high relative to power hitters like Juan Soto, but it is the highest barrel rate of Margot’s career. His 40% hard hit rate is also a career high. Margot has also cut down on his swinging strike rate, dropping it from 10% last season to 8% this season, while increasing his overall contact rate from 77% in 2020 to 82% this season.
Interestingly, this has led to Margot’s 30 RBI in early June. In 2019 he ended the season with 37 RBI in just under 300 more plate appearances than he has now. Part of the reason for the increase in RBI is that Margot has batted out of the four or five slot in the order in 20 games. He has batted second in the order 12 times, and third in the order five times. Throughout his career, he has typically hit in the last third of the order, which has limited his plate appearances. Tampa manager Kevin Cash obviously likes him batting early in the order this season, so Margot should continue to rack up plate appearances and counting stats.
At least for the moment I would rather roster Margot than Dominic Smith, Cavan Biggio, Jeff McNeil, and Raimel Tapia, all of whom are rostered at a higher rate than Margot.
He is a sneaky add on a good team, and he should continue to produce through the rest of the season.
Strike 3
One final Rays player that should be targeted in leagues is 2B/OF Brandon Lowe, who many see as having a disappointing year.
Lowe is a strange case this season, because he is accumulating the typical Roto stats, but his batting average is sitting below the Mendoza line.
The 30% strikeout rate is a problem. Anyone striking out 30% of the time is automatically putting limitations on their batting average, but Lowe’s batting average is also being limited by a low .234 BABIP. His first season was the only other season his BABIP has been under .300, and that season his batting average was .233. There are some commonalities between this season and his 2018 rookie year.
The launch angle and barrel rates in both years are lower than in 2019 and 2020, when he did much better statistically. In this season and 2018, his ground ball rate is over 40%, his fly ball rate is under 40%, and his HR/FB rate is under 20%. In Lowe’s best seasons, all those numbers were flipped. Lowe also has the worst hard contact rate of his career this season. All of these things could actually be suppressing his BABIP because his hits are not hard line drives that hitters have a hard time fielding.
The good thing for Lowe is that these problems are fixable. He needs to adjust his swing. He can change his launch angle, and tweak elements of his swing to add bat speed, which could result in harder contact.
Despite all of the negatives, Lowe has still been able to hit nine home runs, and is on pace for career bests in runs, RBI, and stolen bases.
While he is rostered in about 90% of ESPN leagues, there are surely managers who are fed up with the bad batting average and who are willing to move on from Lowe. He makes for an excellent buy low target, and the positional flexibility only adds to his allure.
