This. It was a rough week in Fantasy Football. My Primetime NFFC team went to battle without its first round pick (Leonard Fournette), second round pick (Le’Veon Bell), fourth round pick (Josh Gordon) and just before game time, lost its kicker (Greg Zuerlein). No, I didn’t win this week. I knew going into the draft that Fournette hasn’t always been the healthiest, that Bell was unsigned, and that Gordon, well, Gordon is unreliable. I just didn’t expect it all to hit the wall at the same time. Toss in the Zuerlein injury during warm-ups and, well, it was a disaster. Surprisingly, I actually scored higher than three other teams in the league, so it wasn’t a total loss. If only I had drawn one of those three teams….
Fortunately, picking up a suitable replacement for Zuerlein, while not to the standards of Greg the Leg, won’t be difficult. Fournette should play this week and Gordon is likely to play shortly, if not this week. Bell will sign one day, so there is still hope. It’s only one week, or so I keep telling myself.
That. I listen to a lot of Fantasy Sports Radio. There are some incredibly knowledgeable people on that station and they provide a wealth of knowledge. However, every so often I find the advice given to be downright wrong. Let’s look at one instance.
Caller: “I have Drew Brees in my lineup and my opponent has Michael Thomas. My concern is that every time that Brees throws to Thomas, my opponent gets more points than I do (one point for every ten yards for receiving, one point for every twenty-five points for passing). So, if Brees throws a fifty yard pass to Thomas, my opponent gets five points and I only get two. Should I start Brees, or would I be better off starting Jimmy Garoppolo?”
Radio Personality: “Caller, that’s a great question. You don’t want to have your quarterback throwing to your opponent’s receivers, as you lose points every time they catch the ball. You should go with Jimmy G.”
I’m certain that you’ve heard the above-referenced conversation before, just with different names. I’m reasonably certain that you agree with the Radio Personality, as who wants to give up more points to your opponent when your quarterback connects on a pass?
The problem is that the advice is 100% wrong. Fantasy Football is a game of points. The team that scores the most points wins. It’s as simple as that. If your opponent scores 140 points, and you score 141, you win. As I wrote, it’s simple. Thus, the only question you should have when setting your lineup is, “What players will give me the most points.” If that player in the above example is Brees, then you start Brees. If that player is Jimmy G, then you start Garoppolo.
I know, you are thinking, “But Thomas is getting more points than Brees on every pass Brees throws to Thomas. Therefore, every pass Brees throws to Thomas actually hurts me.” And, you are completely correct.
So what?
If Brees scores 33 points, and Jimmy G scores 24 points, the team that starts Brees has a 9 point edge on the team that starts Garoppolo. Would you rather have 33 points or 24 points? Yes, that was a rhetorical question.
But, what about Thomas? Well, what about him? Your opponent is going to start Thomas no matter what. If Thomas catches eight balls for 120 yards and scores one touchdown, he is going to earn your opponent 26 points in most full point PPRs.
If you sit Brees because you don’t want Thomas to score more points on every reception that your quarterback scores, Thomas will score 26 points for your opponent. If you start Brees, Thomas is still going to earn 26 points for your opponent. Clearly, Thomas is going to earn those points for your opponent whether or not you started Brees.
So, the only question is, do you want 33 points from your quarterback (Brees), or 24 points from your quarterback (Garoppolo), because your opponent is still getting 26 from Thomas? Again, a rhetorical question.
As hard as it is to fathom, when setting your lineup, it doesn’t matter who your opponent is starting, or who is on your opponent’s team. Your goal is to maximize your scoring opportunity and score the most points possible. It really is as simple as that.
The Other Thing. It was a rough week for kickers as Zuerlein hurt himself in warm-ups, Daniel Carlson imploded for the Vikings and Zane Gonzalez missing more than he made, again. This is just a reminder that kickers are fungible. Spending an early pick (something other than the three rounds in a 20-team draft) is just asking for trouble. The same is true for free agent bidding. Dan Bailey just signed with the Vikings. He’s a proven kicker now in a dome. Feel free to bid up to 1% of your budget. If you don’t get Bailey, the next kicker is likely just as good. And so on, and so on.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
