Always wanting to be the dutiful husband, I’ve watched my wife put together a 1000 piece jigsaw puzzle over a period of a week. It’s a painful process. She’ll start by dumping all the pieces into the box, organizing them by color and then starting the actual construction work. First comes the border, and then the easier sections of the puzzle come together. After that, there’s a lot of hard work before she places the final piece.
But what does a jigsaw puzzle have to do with fantasy baseball? It occurred to me one night as I watched my wife pursue her hobby that putting a jigsaw puzzle together was a lot like a draft. Let’s consider a 30-round NFBC draft, with 14 position players, nine pitchers and seven bench spots to fill on each team. Further consider that you have six infield, five outfield, two catchers and a utility position to fill in your starting lineup.
In addition to the position players, you also have the pitchers. What kind of mix between starting pitchers and relief pitchers will you employ in your starting lineup? The most popular build is six SPs and three RPs. Some managers will carry as many as five additional pitchers on their bench. While starting pitchers are necessary to compile wins and strikeouts, the primary purpose of relief pitchers is to secure saves. With both, you are trying to protect your ratios.
Relief pitchers are a dime a dozen, unless they are closers. An elite closer is valuable on a major league team, and he’s a scarce commodity in a fantasy draft. But who qualifies as elite? There were only a dozen relief pitchers who compiled more than 30 saves in 2023. There were only 10 in 2022 and nine in 2021. Of the 12 that had 30-plus saves last year, one (Felix Bautista) is out and another (Ryan Pressly) was demoted to setup man with Josh Hader signing with the Astros.
There are different ways to fit relief pitchers into the draft puzzle. Michael Richards, The Great Fantasy Baseball overall champion in 2022, feels a sense of urgency because of the scarcity of elite closers. He wants to roster two in the first six rounds and avoid the FAAB drain. Tanner Bell, the 2021 TGFBI overall champion, prefers to speculate on late-round closers and use some of his FAAB dollars to continue speculating during the season. To each his own.
I have determined that 24 of the 30 teams have a closer heading into the 2024 season, although some of these closers have more job security. It seems as though the perceived job security, strikeout potential and team context are the biggest factors in determining ADP. Devin Williams, Edwin Diaz and Josh Hader, all going in the third round of most NFBC drafts, are considered very secure. Alex Lange and Jose Alvarado, going nine rounds later, are not secure.
There are 17 relief pitchers with an ADP of less than 100 at NFBC. These 17 pitchers are being drafted in the first seven rounds, and you will want to roster at least one of them. With that said, my analysis shows that some of these represent better values than others. In the descriptions below, I will tell you which ones I like at their current values and which ones I’m fading. Let me repeat. I don’t recommend drafting them in this order, which represents ADP.
DEVIN WILLIAMS, MILWAUKEE (ADP 37)
Williams saved 36 games in 2023, striking out 87 batters in 58 2/3 innings. Only Bautista and Doval had more strikeouts. Williams had a 1.53 ERA of 1.53 and 0.92 WHIP. He has been the closer in Milwaukee since Hader was traded to San Diego in 2022. In addition to the cost, the downside to Williams is the Brewers are expected to be no better than a mediocre team in 2024 after trading Corbin Burnes away and doing little to improve during the offseason.
EDWIN DIAZ, NEW YORK METS (ADP 41)
Based on his current ADP, the market is pretending like 2023 never happened. A patellar tendon tear ended Diaz’s season before it started in 2023. But there is a difference worth noting between last year and this year. In 2023, the Mets were coming off a 101-win season and expected to be a World Series contender. This team got a lot worse in the past year. Diaz, who is expected to be fully healthy, had 32 saves and 118 strikeouts across 62 innings in 2022.
JOSH HADER, HOUSTON (ADP 47)
Houston signed Hader to a five-year, $95 million deal last month – the largest the team has given to a free agent under owner Jim Crane. The fact that Hader landed in Houston surprised me because the Astros still has Ryan Pressly, who had saved 30 plus games the past two seasons. Hader bounced back from a shaky 2022 to have a solid 2023 season, dropping his ERA from 5.22 to 1.28. He struck out 85 batters in 56 1/3 innings and collected 33 saves.
EMMANUEL CLASE, CLEVELAND (ADP 50)
I’m fading Clase at his ADP – in spite of the fact that he led all closers with 44 saves in 2023. My hesitation on Clase is twofold. First, he doesn’t miss enough bats, with only a 7.93 K/9 rate. It’s true that he doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact, and his groundball percentage (56.6%) is elite. Another concern is an ERA increase from 1.36 in 2022 to 3.22. If you’re going to use an early-round draft pick on a closer, there are better options later in the draft.
JHOAN DURAN, MINNESOTA (ADP 52)
It took awhile for Twins manager Rocco Baldelli to figure out that Duran should be the closer, but the 26-year-old flamethrower finally got the job last year. Duran, who has a 101.8 mph fastball, led the league with 473 pitches clocked at more than 100 mph. But his curveball is his top swing-and-miss pitch. Duran struck out 84 batters across 62 1/3 innings in 2023, while garnering 27 saves. There’s no reason to think he can’t top 30 saves in 2024.
CAMILO DOVAL, SAN FRANCISCO (ADP 56)
Camilo Doval finished 2023 tied for second in saves with 39 – in spite of some shaky moments in September. He still finished with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP across 62 1/3 innings, with 87 strikeouts. The 26-year-old Dominican offers an elite mix of pitches, with his slider and cutter his primary swing-and-miss pitches. Doval’s strikeout rate was 31.0, and he is also in the 88th percentile in groundball percentage at 52.5. He’s worth a fourth-round pick.
RAISEL IGLESIAS, ATLANTA (ADP 60)
Why would the Braves closer be only the seventh closer off the board in most drafts? The answer is that the 34-year-old veteran is not aging like a fine wine. The start of his 2023 season was delayed until May 6 as he recovered from shoulder inflammation. After that, he did convert 33 of his 37 save chances, with a 3.07 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. However, it’s worth noting that there was more solid contact. Iglesias’s age and injury risk makes him a fade for me at his ADP.
DAVID BEDNAR, PITTSBURGH (ADP 62)
David Bednar finished 2023 tied for the National League lead in saves with 39. He had a stellar 2.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, while striking out 80 batters in 67 1/3 innings which puts him in the elite tier of relievers – in spite of playing for the Pirates, a perennial loser. The addition of Aroldis Chapman gives one pause in using a fourth or fifth round pick on Bednar, but it’s hard to believe he won’t keep the closer job. Take advantage of the small ADP discount.
JORDAN ROMANO, TORONTO (ADP 67)
Romano left the All-Star game in July and later landed on the IL with a back injury. Add a shaky September to that, and these are my concerns heading into 2024. Romano did earn 36 saves in each of the last two, and he finished with a respectable 2.90 ERA in 2023. But a BB% jump to 9.7 was also concerning. The walks pushed Romano’s WHIP to 1.22 – two-tenths higher than his 2022 number. There are enough negatives here to cause me to fade Romano at this price.
ALEXIS DIAZ, CINCINNATI (ADP 75)
Diaz finished second in the National League with 37 saves in 2023, and he was electric in the first half of the season. He didn’t blow a save until June 30, but he faded badly down the stretch. Arm fatigue probably contributed to his 8.38 ERA in September. Diaz still finished with a decent 3.07 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He also struck out 86 batters in 67 1/3 innings. He does lack the overpowering velocity of other elite closers, with a fastball topping out at 95 mph.
PAUL SEWALD, ARIZONA (ADP 79)
I daydream about finding Sewald still on the board when it’s my turn to pick in the 6th round in a 15-team league. The trade to Arizona at the deadline last summer left me wondering what Seattle was thinking when they received virtually nothing in return. Sewald racked up 34 saves between the two clubs, with an ERA of 3.12, a 1.15 WHIP and a strikeout percentage of 32.1. There’s no better value for an elite relief pitcher, so draft with confidence.
ANDRES MUNOZ, SEATTLE (ADP 82)
Munoz is another fade for me at his current ADP for a couple of reasons. First, since his July 2019 MLB debut, he has missed 44 percent of his team’s games while on the IL. Second, there’s another guy in the Seattle bullpen named Matt Brash who’s even better than Munoz. If that’s not enough to make you tap the brakes on Munoz, consider that he also endured a decrease in strikeout percentage and huge increase in walk percentage.
PETE FAIRBANKS, TAMPA BAY (ADP 91)
Notorious for mixing and matching in the ninth inning, the Rays finally locked in on Fairbanks as their closer in 2023. And why not since his fastball touches 100 mph, and his wipeout slider makes Fairbanks elite. The team context is excellent, and I’m scratching my head about why he’s just the 13th relief pitcher off the board in NFBC drafts in 2024. It’s probably a concerning injury history that includes five trips to the IL in the past three seasons.
EVAN PHILLIPS, LOS ANGELES DODGERS (ADP 92)
Adding Phillips to my TGFBI team last year with a $27 FAAB outlay was a fortuitous move as he paced the Dodgers with 24 saves in 27 chances after taking over the job early in the summer. It was his second straight dominant season working in high-leverage situations. The Dodgers turned their focus to signing superstars at every other position, sending a message of support to Phillips, who finished with a 2.35 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. Draft with confidence.
RYAN HELSLEY, ST. LOUIS (ADP 94)
Helsley has a profile similar to other closers being drafted in this range. He can throw a fastball close to 100 mph, misses a lot of bats, walks too many batters and comes with injury concerns. His strikeout rate of 35.6 percent is elite, and he was on fire in eleven appearances in September. During that time, he had seven saves, an 0.77 ERA and a 44.2 percent strikeout rate. If Helsley can stay healthy in 2024, he could be a top-five closer taken at a big discount.
CRAIG KIMBREL, BALTIMORE (ADP 97)
Kimbrel was the prime beneficiary of the Felix Bautista injury after Baltimore signed him to a one-year, $13 million contract. What a landing spot for the veteran, who will be pitching for a World Series contender in a ballpark that depresses right-handed power. Kimbrel was able to maintain his standing among the active saves leaders by converting 23 saves for the Phillies last season and now has 417 saves for his career – second among active pitchers.
TANNER SCOTT, MIAMI (ADP 99)
Scott earned his old closer role back after Dave Robertson pitched his way out of the job within a month of being acquired from the Mets last summer. The 29-year-old veteran went on to save ten games for the Marlins, finding the strike zone with more regularity than in the past. Scott’s walk rate was one of the worst in 2021-2022, but his percentage in 2023 was better than league average. His fastball and slider are tough to hit, and he represents a good value in 2024.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about football and baseball for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter@ThomasLSeltzer1.
