It’s not fun to pay a high price for saves in deeper fantasy leagues. Today’s real-life managers are yanking these guys from the role faster than ever, and even the corresponding set-up man is not guaranteed to inherit or keep the job if our high-priced guy falters.
As I see it, we have two problems in chasing saves these days: It’s becoming harder to scoop up cheap closers on bad teams (and their 30-plus saves and solid ratios). But it’s also tougher to predict who might be next in line or even to handcuff our most important assets when so many relievers are worth rostering just for the ratios in deeper leagues.
So, where does that leave the discerning buyer? I’m still trying to dip a toe in the waters of the unquestioned ace, so I’m still not ready to pay an exorbitant price for the top-tier closers. But I don’t want to mess with Shane Greene and Blake Parker again, either.
There appears to be a slight middle ground — I’m seeing a one-round window into the back-end of the Closer 1A crop. Here’s where the game’s top 10 relievers are going off the board in NFBC drafts between Jan. 1 and today.
NFBC ADP / (Steamer Save Projection)
48: Edwin Diaz (33)
63: Blake Treinen (23)
70: Craig Kimbrel (N/A)
77: Kenley Jansen (38)
82: Aroldis Chapman (31)
90: Brad Hand (34)
90: Roberto Osuna (33)
91: Felipe Vazquez (31)
104: Rasiel Iglesias (33)
105: Josh Hader (14)
Let’s eliminate Diaz for his high cost, Jansen for his health issues last season and Chapman for a little bit of both. Hader isn’t the type of “30 Saves in the Bank” guy we’re looking for here. Treinen’s role is safer than Steamer suggests, but he’s still ranked so high that someone will snatch him up before we’re ready. Kimbrel is in the same boat.
That leaves four really interesting options for starting off our saves quest with excellent, proven closers who have guaranteed roles on solid teams: Brad Hand, Roberto Osuna and Felipe Vazquez in the seventh round of 12-teamers, and Rasiel Iglesias in the eighth. Each of these guys brings elite ratios to the table over multiple seasons.
There is a stark dropoff when we look at the next tier of 10 — each pitcher either lacks experience, top-end production, has had recent health issues or is part of a budding committee.
Yahoo ADP / (Steamer Save Projection)
109: Sean Doolittle (22)
119: Jose Leclerc (21)
120: Wade Davis (29)
124: Kirby Yates (28)
133: Ken Giles (27)
150: Corey Knebel (18)
175: Jose Alvarado (35)
203: S. Dominguez (12)
208: Will Smith (18)
210: Arodys Vizcaino (27)
Alvarado is a great pick at his ADP — he was brilliant down the stretch and looks to have the closer job locked down. Same with Leclerc and Yates, although none of the three has more than a half-season’s worth of closing duty under their belts. Davis and Giles are sketchy. Knebel and Dominguez have committee friends. And no one would bet the over on either the Smith or Vizcaino save totals right now.
NFBC ADP / (Steamer Save Projection)
219: Archie Bradley (11)
221: Cody Allen (33)
226: Jordan Hicks (15)
238: David Robertson (21)
249: Mychal Givens (29)
256: Alex Colome (2)
257: Brandon Morrow (36)
264: A.J. Minter (5)
270: Andrew Miller (23)
273: Trevor May (2)
Allen, Givens and Colome seem like the best bets here, given experience and team context. Morrow is projected for the second-most saves in baseball, but he’s not even expected to be healthy for the start of the season. Pairing him with Pedro Strop could be a cheap way to get in on most of the saves for a projected playoff team.
Should we draft both Hicks and Miller when Alex Reyes is going 50 picks earlier? Pair Robertson with an earlier Dominguez selection? Minter with Vizcaino? The Twins signed Blake Parker, whom Steamer has down for 31 saves, so Trevor May’s ADP is on its way down.
Last year I hit on Blake Treinen but missed on Greene and Parker, leaving me scrounging for the likes of Alvarado and using precious FAAB on multiple Houston relievers. There’s a lot of potential reward in such endeavors, but damn if it wouldn’t have been nice to see Raisel Iglesias racking up saves while I worked the wire.
Honestly, I’m not convinced I’ll change. But I do see a path toward bundling a back-end top 10 closer with two of the more bettable stoppers along the way.
Time will tell if I’m able to follow it.
Follow Danny @_dannycross_.
