It’s been over two months since the 2020 MLB season was set to begin back on March 26 and, especially with the recent announcement that the NBA will resume play at the end of next month, the onus is on baseball to salvage what remains of a lost season. The latest update brings word that the players want an 82-game season while the league is hoping for a 48-game slate. This means a 50 to 70 percent reduction in games played which will no doubt affect how players should be evaluated heading into the season.
Playing time is the stat that benefits the most from a shortened schedule. While playing semi-regularly during a normal 162 game schedule can permit sustained production, the odds of this occurring over a reduced schedule is far less likely. Aside from the stars, players on teams that employ platoons such as the Rays and Dodgers should see a decrease in value stemming from less playing time, with the adjustment being more pronounced as overall skill decreases. Other positional groups where this has the potential to occur include the Reds, Cubs, Cardinals and Braves outfields, as each team has more than three qualified players at the position. The universal DH does help mitigate this, however rosters expanded beyond the original 26 will get more unfamiliar names in the lineup. Guys like Kyle Schwarber, Nick Markakis, Shogo Akiyama, Tommy Edman, Corey Seager and virtually all Rays players are at risk of losing at bats.
Age and injury are also heightened factors for 2020 as competitive teams look to keep their best players healthy for the stretch run and playoffs. Older players and those who have a history of injury are candidates for reduced playing team as a result of teams looking to keep them fresh throughout the season. Veterans such as Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion and Charlie Blackmon could find themselves on the bench more frequently than they’re accustomed. Others like Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa and Gary Sanchez are likely to see less time on the diamond due to injury risk and deep rosters.
Injured list stints will give fantasy GMs even more headaches this season than in years past. Typically, I’m inclined to hang on to contributing players through their stay on the IL but this season games missed will hurt at least twice as much. If MLB plays a 2-month schedule and your first-round pick is set to miss one month, the best option may be to cut bait. Multiple unknown factors will also need to be taken into account but let this highlight how 2020 logic will be an entirely new animal. I would recommend incorporating an IL slot (or 2) to combat these challenging potential scenarios if your league does not do so already.
There is a statistics principle called the Central Limit Theorem, or CLT, that directly applies to the upcoming season. Essentially, the CLT states that as observations increase results are more likely to be as expected. The perfect example is the 2019 Washington Nationals who, after starting the season 19-31, went on to win the World Series. Everyone expected the Nationals to be competitive but that looked far from reality after 50 games. As the team played more, it became apparent that they actually were a solid group, contrary to their record at the end of May.
For a typical season, the CLT highlights the importance of exercising patience by waiting for positive regression in players who start cold. However, for 2020 the opposite is true. This season won’t have nearly as many games played so it’s paramount that we react to early season trends. Regression most often occurs during the second half of the season once players make adjustments during the All-Star break, if not sooner. 2020 won’t have an All-Star break or second half, which means you should buy into early season success even if you don’t think it will be maintained.
To demonstrate, I researched unheralded players from the past 10 seasons who had incredible first half runs only to tank during the second half. Seven of the 10 are starting pitchers and many of the names are unfamiliar; let that be a reminder about taking a chance on the waiver wire.
We’ll start with a trio of Pirates. In 2011 Kevin Correia made the All-Star team after going 11-7 with a 4.01 ERA in the first half before concluding with a 1-4 record and 7.23 ERA. The following year James McDonald started out 9-3 with a 2.37 ERA and .973 WHIP only to post a paltry 3-5, 7.52, 1.787 line after. The very next season Jeff Locke began 8-2 with a 2.15 ERA and 1.12 WHIP before finishing at 2-5, 6.12, 1.866 line.
In 2012 Bryan LaHair (Even I don’t remember him!) made the All-Star team as a reserve with a first half triple slash of .286/.364/.519, only to see his second half OPS decline by over .300 points. Jimmy Paredes jumped out to a .299/.332/.475 line in 2015 before limping to .216/.252/.265 after. The only other hitter I was able to dig up was Aledmys Diaz in 2016 who saw his OPS decline from .915 to .782 but was still serviceable. That I was only able to find three hitters demonstrates how when they do breakout it tends to last all year, whereas pitchers can decline after a strong first few months.
Josh Tomlin and Steven Wright both had solid beginnings to 2016, going 9-2 with a 3.51 ERA and 10-5, 2.68 respectively. Both tailed off after the midsummer classic, posting 4-7, 5.59 and 3-1, 5.06 lines. In 2017 Jason Vargas pitched the best baseball of his career in the first half with a 12-3 record to go with a 2.62 ERA before sliding to 6-8, 6.38 thereafter. Finally, Ross Stripling posted an 8-2 record and 2.08 ERA working as a spot starter and long reliever for the Dodgers in 2018. In the second half he went 0-4 with a 6.41 ERA.
Recently, my colleague Thomas Seltzer wrote articles highlighting the importance of acquiring players via the waiver wire and in season trades. I double down on that sentiment, especially in 2020 for the reasons outlined above. When considering waiver options this year, try to block out factors outside of 2020 production. A player’s age and historical production don’t matter; the only factor this year is whether he can contribute to your team for a week or two. Obscure names are bound to surface, as they do every season, don’t let the name alone prevent you from adding them to your team. Anyone is capable of stringing together a few solid weeks, which is all that is needed in 2020.
