Shohei Ohtani’s move across town in Los Angeles is a win-win for the two-way MLB superstar and the Dodgers. Your initial reaction to the 10-year, $700 million was probably that the Dodgers overpaid. After all, Ohtani will not pitch in 2024, and he may never pitch again at the same level as he did in 2023. But from a business perspective, the Dodgers get a win.
Shohei Ohtani will receive just $20 million of his $700 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers over the next 10 years, with $680 million payable from 2034-43 in an unusual structure that gives the team greater payroll flexibility to be competitive in future seasons. In other words, $68 million is deferred with no interest, payable in equal installments from 2034-43.
By receiving the vast majority of the money when he probably will not be living in the United States, Ohtani also figures to get a tax benefit under this arrangement. California’s top tax rate for residents is 13.3 percent. The two-time AL MVP has endorsement deals that significantly add to his earnings beyond his baseball salary, so he can probably limp by with just the $20 million.
The Dodgers will also cash in with millions of baseball fans wanting to buy Ohtani gear. Keep in mind that this guy is a bigger-than-life hero in Japan, the country’s most famous athlete who has stoked national pride by reaching the pinnacle of a game beloved worldwide. One fan noted that Ohtani’s salary is more than the entire player payroll for at least one Japanese professional team.
As is generally the case for the biggest free agents, the implications of this signing are greater for real life than for fantasy baseball. Superstars are superstars, and their superpower skills would typically translate anywhere. However, I do view it as a slight upgrade. The Dodgers lineup is better than the Angels, and Dodger Stadium is also a slight upgrade over Angel Stadium.
Ohtani may be the biggest domino that has fallen so far in the offseason, but there are others with real life and fantasy implications. Managers already thinking about the 2024 fantasy drafts are watching each move. In this column, I will offer some thoughts on the significant moves that have transpired so far. I’m also going to add insights on whether these moves are upgrades.
JUAN SOTO TRADED TO THE YANKEES
Another superstar, Soto is going to be elite wherever he plays, but this was an upgrade. A career .284 hitter with an OPS of .946, he’s hit only .231 as a Padre, with .783 OPS. Soto hit 35 home runs in 2023, but 23 of those dingers were on the road where he batted .307, with a 1.026 OPS. You can expect Soto to have better fantasy stats in Yankee Stadium based on these splits.
TYLER GLASNOW TRADED TO DODGERS
Upon his return from Tommy John surgery, Glasnow threw 120 innings and struck out 162 batters in 2023. His 33.4 K% is in the 97th percentile, and his fastball velocity sat in the 96-mph range. A healthy Glasnow is elite, but that’s rare. The 120 innings were the most he’s ever pitched in a season. He joins the Dodgers rotation with massive upside and massive injury risk.
AARON NOLA RE-SIGNS WITH THE PHILLIES
Phillies fans breathed a sigh of relief when Nola agreed to stay in Philadelphia on a seven-year, $172 million deal. Don’t be fooled by his year-by-year ERA numbers (4.63 in 2021, 3.25 in 2022, 4.46 in 2023). All of the advanced metrics point to a solid top-of-the rotation pitcher. The fantasy manager chasing strikeouts can count on Nola to finish in the top 10 in that category.
SONNY GRAY SIGNS WITH THE CARDINALS
No team was more desperate to sign at least one good starting pitcher than the Cardinals, who had their worst season in more than 30 years in 2023. Mission accomplished with Gray, who was able to limit home runs and finish with a 2.79 ERA last year with Minnesota. Since 2019, only eight pitchers who have thrown at least 500 innings have a better park-adjusted ERA than Gray.
CRAIG KIMBREL SIGNS WITH THE ORIOLES
Kimbrel signed a one-year deal with a club option for the 2025 season, and Baltimore GM Mike Elias has already said that Kimbrel will serve as the Orioles closer in 2024 with Felix Bautista recovering from Tommy John surgery. This was a no-confidence vote for Yennier Cano, who was shaky when he stepped into that role. Kimbrel shared the closer role in Philadelphia last year.
EDUARDO RODRIGUEZ SIGNS WITH THE DIAMONDBACKS
Hungry for another deep run in the playoffs, Arizona signed Rodriguez to a four-year, $80 million contract after a resurgent 2023 that followed seasoned marred by illness and an absence resulting from personal problems. His first half was outstanding (2.64 ERA, 20.6% K-BB%) and his second half (3.89 ERA, 11.2% K-BB%) was mediocre. But this is an upgrade for E-Rod.
ALEX VERDUGO TRADED TO THE YANKEES
A rare trade between the Red Sox and Yankees brought a consistent left-handed hitter to Yankee Stadium, where he’ll join what is promising to be an improved lineup. A career .281 hitter with a little pop, there’s reason to expect closer to 20 homers and close to 100 runs scored if he stays healthy. Expect Verdugo to be drafted as one of the top 40 outfielders in 2024 fantasy drafts.
JACKSON CHOURIO GETS AN 8-YEAR DEAL
Chourio, 19, gets an eight-year, $82 million deal with the Brewers and is now a shoo-in to make the team out of spring training. The youngster’s power and speed give him superstar potential. This is a big leap for a young player who hasn’t ascended to the majors yet. But this is a player with a high ceiling who could return value if you can draft him outside the top 200 next spring.
JEIMER CANDELARIO SIGNS WITH THE REDS
This move should boost Candelario’s stock, as Statcast estimates he would have had 30 home runs if he played every game at Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati last year. In reality, he won’t play every game in Cincinnati, but a possible 25-homer outcome is enough to attract the attention of fantasy managers. As a career .243 hitter lacking power, he shouldn’t be overdrafted.
TYLER O’NEILL TRADED TO THE RED SOX
Two years ago, O’Neill was a top-50 pick in fantasy drafts because of his combination of speed and power. After all, he was coming off a solid 2021 season, when he hit .286 with 34 homers, 15 steals and a .912 OPS. Injuries have derailed him, as he’s continually on the IL with shoulder, hamstring, back and foot injuries. If he stays healthy, he could return value as a late-round flier.
EUGENIO SUAREZ TRADED TO THE DIAMONDBACKS
Four years ago, Suarez hit 49 home runs for the Reds, but his trade to Seattle in 2022 did him no favors. T-Mobile Park was the single worst venue for right-handed hitters last year, according to Statcast. But Chase Field is not much better, and a strikeout rate over 30% points to a low batting average that can sink your fantasy team. He’s better off to be a bench piece than a starter.
FLAHERTY SIGNS WITH TIGERS
Flaherty had what appeared to be a breakout year in 2019. He pitched to a 2.75 ERA in 33 starts across 196.3 innings, racking up 231 strikeouts. He was a top 50 pick in 2020 fantasy drafts, but he is no more than an afterthought now. Hampered by injuries and wildness, he moves to a good pitcher’s park. However, he’ll be on the waiver wire when most fantasy drafts are complete.
JARRED KELENIC TRADED TO THE BRAVES
Regarded as one of the top prospects in baseball a couple years, Kelenic was close to being out of the league a year ago because he couldn’t hit major league hitting. But there were signs of improvement in 2023 in Seattle. Joining the Braves lineup could be a real boon to Kelenic, but he’s likely going to be a platoon bat. At best, he’s a late-round flier in five-outfielder leagues.
JUNG HOO LEE SIGNS WITH THE GIANTS
Lee ranks a distant second to Yoshinobu Yamamoto as an East Asia star on fantasy radar. The Korean player is a career .340 hitter with almost twice as many walks as strikeouts. If you’re thinking that he’s like Luis Arraez, you’re not far off. However, if Lee can actually hit .300 at the top of the San Francisco lineup, he could be useful in fantasy – especially in points leagues.
HUNTER RENFROE SIGNS WITH THE ROYALS
The Royals, who have been active in the final two months of 2023, signed Renfroe to a two-year deal. Renfroe, 31, slashed .233/.297/.416 with 20 home runs over 140 games between the Los Angeles Angels and Cincinnati Reds in 2023. If he stays healthy, the slugging outfielder can be counted on for 25-30 home runs, although he has a lifetime batting average of only .239.
SETH LUGO SIGNS WITH THE ROYALS
It was disappointing to see Lugo sign with Kansas City because the team context is not good. However, you’re likely to see Lugo stick in the Royals rotation. Wins will be hard to come by, but Lugo has a deep arsenal of pitches with good control and an above-average ground-ball rate. There’s reason to hope that his ratios will be good which makes him viable in a deeper league.
LUIS SEVERINO SIGNS WITH METS
Once regarded as a top pitcher in the American League, Severino threw a combined 18 innings from 2019 through 2021. He was able to deliver a 3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 9.9 K/9 across 102 innings in 2022. But 2023 was a disaster, with a 6.65 ERA, 1.646 WHIP and only 79 strikeouts across 89.1 innings. The Mets are betting on a comeback, and there certainly is some upside.
KENTA MAEDA SIGNS WITH THE TIGERS
Maeda’s high ERA and low innings total make him an afterthought in fantasy drafts, but keep in mind that his 10.9 K/9 in 2023 ranked 12th among pitchers with at least 100 innings. Maeda’s 12.8% swinging-strike rate ranked 23rd. Moving to a venue that Statcast rates last for home runs in the last three years should help, too. At 36 years old, you must wonder if he can stay healthy.
LANCE LYNN SIGNS WITH THE CARDINALS
Lynn is returning to St. Louis, where he started his career, but his troubling 2023 season does not bode well for the future. A move to the Dodgers at the trade deadline didn’t do much to improve his fortunes. If Lynn couldn’t be salvaged in Los Angeles, there is little hope the Cardinals will have any success. He’s a late- round flier at best.
REYNALDO LOPEZ SIGNS WITH THE BRAVES
Normally, the signing of a middle reliever wouldn’t merit a mention in this column except that Atlanta plans to stretch Lopez out as a starter this spring. If that happens, it’s a big development for a pitcher who hasn’t been a full-time starter since 2020. Lopez, 29 years old, struggled in his years as a starter before finding success in relief, but Atlanta apparently must see some untapped potential.
WILL SMITH SIGNS WITH THE ROYALS
For fantasy purposes, this was a good landing spot for Smith since the Royals are one of the few teams without a favorite to close. With his pedigree, it’s likely that Smith will at least start the season in that role. However, keep in mind that Smith is now just a shell of his former self. If you’re a fantasy manager chasing saves, Smith could return value if he falls far enough in drafts.
ROYALS SIGN MICHAEL WACHA
Speaking of the Royals, the Wacha signed a two-year deal on Friday and Kansas City gets a bounce back hurler who pitched to a 3.22 ERA and 1.16 WHIP across 134.3 innings in 2023. Wacha won’t give fantasy managers many strikeouts, but his ratios have been good for most of his career, and he could prove to be a sneaky late-round pick for savvy managers in fantasy drafts.
TYLER MAHLE SIGNS WITH THE RANGERS
Coming off Tommy John surgery, Mahle signed a two-year deal with the Rangers but probably won’t be available to pitch until after the All-Star break. The $22 million deal was puzzling based on Mahle’s history. The seven-year veteran has a career 4.30 ERA in 122 starts. He joins another pair of oft-injured pitchers, Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer in Texas.
These dominoes have already fallen, and there are more to come. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, Josh Hader, Jordan Montgomery, J.D. Martinez, Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Teoscar Hernández, Rhys Hoskins, Lucas Giolito, Whit Merrifield, Marcus Stroman, Harrison Bader and others are still unsigned at the present time.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
