Sometimes I wonder. Sometimes I wonder a lot. If I go to the mall, I look at what some people are wearing and wonder if they actually chose said clothes, or perhaps there was a power outage at home and they couldn’t see that what they were wearing was hideous.
I wonder about other things, too. I wonder what some fantasy owners are thinking when they make trade offers? I suppose that some owners figure that the worst thing that can happen if they make a bad offer is that the other team will reject. That’s not entirely true. I believe that it is human nature to be pissed off if someone insults you. If I go to the mall and someone tells me that my outfit is hideous, I’m going to be angry, even if they are right. When someone offers me an incredibly bad offer, I’m angry.
Ideally, trades ought to be win-win. Each team gets better as a result of a trade. Before making an offer, I look to see what the other team needs and check if I have a surplus in that category or position. If I do, I can fashion an offer that might actually help my potential trading partner, all the while helping me as much or more. Those trades make sense.
Then there are bathroom deals. I bathroom deal is one where you sit on the toilet and pontificate to yourself. “Hmm, Matt Chapman is hitting almost .400, plus he has 40 home run potential. If I couple him with Joe Mauer and his .364 batting average, I can pick up both Gary Sanchez (.063) and Jose Ramirez (.061). Shoot, Chapman and Mauer are so good, the other team should throw in Alex Bregman and his three runs batted in as well. No, I don’t want to be greedy, I’ll just make the Chapman and Mauer offer for Sanchez and Ramirez.”
Hopefully, by the time you exit the loo, you realize that this trade has a zero percent chance of being accepted, and you don’t make the offer for fear of losing credibility. A loss of credibility can hurt you in future dealings as the other team–and likely the rest of the league–will see you as someone who is trying to fleece. That type of reputation does you no good in future deals.
This past week, I received such a bathroom offer. What surprised me wasn’t how bad the offer was, but that the offer was made in an “experts” league, with 11 of the 12 players in the league being fantasy writers you probably have read in the past. In that league, team #1 offered me Johnny Cueto ($9 at auction) and Elvis Andrus ($16). In return, all I was asked to give up was Madison Bumgarner ($33 before injury) and Trea Turner ($51).
Cueto is indeed off to a hot start, but no one can expect that he will be as top 25 pitcher by year’s end. Andrus is hitting .385 at the time of the writing, but has but one home run, and a total of eight runs/RBI combined. He’s ok, but his ceiling has been established, and it’s not vaulted.
Certainly, a team ought to try to trade players at the top of their game, but only an idiot would assume that Cueto will have a sub 1.00 ERA for the remainder of the season, or that Andrus will continue to hit north of .350.
Bumgarner was pronounced out for six to eight weeks back on March 27. I’ve already weathered the first ten days or 10% to 25% of that disability. I wouldn’t trade MadBum for Cueto even up. For what it’s worth, after his injury, Bumgarner’s ADP in the NFBC Main event dropped to 55. Cueto was drafted, on average, at pick number 144. Remember, that is post-injury.
I don’t need to waste any time explaining that Turner is more valuable than Andrus, but for those who don’t necessarily agree, let’s turn to the NFBC. In the past 125 drafts, Turner was the third pick on average. He was taken as early as first, and as late as seventh. Andrus? His ADP for those 125 drafts was 58. The earliest he was ever taken was 44th.
Clearly, this was a trade that would not have been accepted by anyone who has ever played fantasy baseball. Yet, it was made.
I won’t completely rule out trading with this owner. That would be foolish. However, if/when I get another offer from this particular owner, my first inclination will be to say no. That’s not a positive for that owner. The bottom line is clear. “Nothing ventured, nothing gained” doesn’t necessarily ring true in fantasy sports. If you’ve got an offer that is so bad that it can’t possibly be accepted, keep it to yourself.
