The foundation of every fantasy basketball team is molded on draft night. There’s an abundance of talent available early which almost makes your first few selections appear trivial, however selecting the players that allow for optimal roster construction is vital. The reasoning behind this is categorical scarcity, the reality that certain categories are more challenging to fill while others are always accessible. In a standard 8 category league, there are three tiers.
Plentiful
Points, rebounds and threes are commonly found on the waiver wire and therefore do not need to be heavily prioritized. What this means is it’s easy to find a plug and play guy on the waiver wire who can aid in any of these metrics.
Rare
The three categories that can be difficult to fill are assists, steals and blocks. In the modern, position-less NBA, players are thought of as ball handlers, wings or bigs, with each group specializing in one of the three stats. This makes players who contribute in even just two, let alone some who chip in all three, extremely valuable, a realization that supremely boosts ones’ chances of contending
Overlooked
For whatever reason, the percentage categories FG% and FT% are often ignored by GMs and even slightly taking them into account can give you a sizeable edge. An easy way to track the percentages is to note whether you expect a player to be above average, average or below average in each stat. For a more involved method, there’s an advanced stat called true shooting percentage (TS%) that accounts for efficiency from the field, line, and three-point range all in one.
Volume and Efficiency
The final guidelines to consider before drafting are volume, how involved a player is each game, and efficiency, how much does he contribute to winning when compared to that volume. Typically, players don’t excel in both so finding the right blend is paramount to success. In the draft, volume starts high and on average decreases with each round whereas efficiency fluctuates as the draft progresses because it isn’t prioritized. Identify efficient players who aren’t being as valued as such to gain a huge advantage.
The best way to explain these principles is a recap of my home league draft from last season. Although there were no playoffs, I finished in first place with a 134-55-11 (.698%) and a 23 game lead over the second place team. Below you’ll find pick-by-pick analysis and general commentary on critical thinking during the draft process.
James Harden, Round 1 Pick 3
Harden was my number one player last season as well so making this pick was a breeze. The best method for worry free first round is to enter the draft with a top X players for X pick you have in the round one. Last season, my top three was Harden, Karl-Anthony Towns and Stephen Curry and I knew I would be able to draft one of them. Doing this eliminates panic and rash decisions.
Bradley Beal, Round 2 Pick 14
With John Wall set to miss the entire year, I had been targeting Beal because he’s essentially a Harden clone at 80% capacity. There are no holes in his game that includes high volume and excellent efficiency. Playing alongside Russell Westbrook this season, don’t expect a repeat performance, especially in the assist department, but a current ADP of 20.8 is still a tad low considering he should receive more open looks.
Pascal Siakam and Tobias Harris, Rounds 3 and 4 | Picks 19 and 30
Because I went guard early, I needed to balance my roster with some bigs and decided on this pair because of their solid all-around game. In a sense, I missed the mark as they finished 34 and 32 on the player rater, but the only negative category between them was Siakam’s -0.05 FG%. Adding balanced production, rather than stockpiling in a few specific categories, is key in maintaining flexibility as the draft progresses.
De’Aaron Fox, Round 5 Pick 35
This was my gamble at a breakout candidate, as it’s important to pepper in some upside among the steady producers. Injuries resulted in 23 missed games early and a regression to 70.5% from the line canceled out Fox’ contribution in steals. I like Fox this year at an ADP of 47.8, but pick 35 was too high considering his free throw ineptitude.
Jonas Valanciunas, Khris Middleton, Bam Adebayo, Rounds 6-8 | Picks 46, 51, 62
These three picks are how I was able to build such a big lead as the trio finished 31, 21 and 12 on the player rater, and they prove that, while drafts can’t be won early, they can be in the middle rounds. Valanciunas is perennially underrated because he doesn’t post huge blocks as a Center (career 1 BPG) but his competence from the line (career 78%) more than makes up for that and his current ADP of 69.8 is far too low. A subpar 2019 playoffs killed Middleton’s ADP last year, but he responded with a near 50-40-90 season and is the prototypical ideal wing in fantasy basketball. With Hassan Whiteside shipped to Portland, Adebayo was in store for increased minutes which made him a popular breakout target that proved to be a league winner for some. He’ll be gone by the third round this year, but a young player in a similar position is Houston’s Christian Wood (ADP 74).
Eric Bledsoe, Joe Ingles, Aaron Gordon, Ja Morant, Brook Lopez, Rounds 9-13 | Picks 67, 78, 83, 94, 99
Bledsoe is the definition of a solid point guard and with only Fox on my team I needed another. After being dealt to New Orleans, Bledsoe lost value but a comparable player hovering around this ADP is former teammate Malcolm Brogdon (64). Ingles is a glue player who does a lot of things well, however pick 78 was an overdraft due to his lack of upside. Gordon was my next breakout pick that fell flat as teammate Jonathan Isaac took the leap instead. The potential is still there for Gordon, who’s still just 25, especially with Isaac’s injury opening up minutes at Gordon’s more natural four spot and his ADP this year is nearly identical. While Morant was a good pick, I just missed on the preferred Shai Gilgeous-Alexander which would’ve been exceptional. The rookie of the year produces conventional point guard stats, but little else which makes his current ADP of 26.6 too steep. This year’s Morant comp is Dejounte Murray (ADP 99.3), who can contribute in nearly every category. Lopez is neglected because he doesn’t score or rebound like you’d expect from a center, but out of position threes and more than 2 BPG make him a solid value and even if he regresses from his finish at 40 on the player rater, an ADP of 111.2 is still too low.
Serge Ibaka, Dewayne Dedmon, Nicolas Batum, Rounds 14-16 | Picks 110, 115, 126
It’s best to shoot for breakout or upside players in the last few rounds, however that doesn’t mean the players have to be young. Ibaka is the classic case of overreacting to an initial overreaction, which occurred when he was traded to Orlando in 2016. Since joining Toronto, his consistently above average production has been overlooked which makes him a value pick in the triple digits. Dedmon flopped, but a breakout 2019 saw him average more than one three, steal and block apiece per game, truly a rare feat for a journeyman center. A player in a similar spot this season is Washington’s Thomas Bryant, who has heightened prospects thanks to his pick and roll partners. Batum was a panic selection as I was set to pick TJ Warren before the team ahead of me sniped him, proof that it can happen to anyone. Fortunately, the final few rounds are low risk and easily replaceable, evidenced by my swap of Batum for Marcus Smart early.
Final Tips
It can be a pain, but proper draft prep goes a long way. The most basic stats to know is your league format as players’ value fluctuates depending on how the scoring is tabulated. For example, my home league this season is standard 8-category plus turnover, double doubles and three-point percentage, additions that drastically impact where players rank. During your draft, have expert rankings for your format open for reference, and keeping a player rater open is also a good idea. Enter the draft with confidence and a plan. My philosophy is to draft as many all-around contributors as possible with an even mix of safety and upside picks, but there are others that can be just as successful. More than anything, remember to keep perspective. Basketball is a children’s game that we’re fortunate enough to get so much enjoyment from so don’t take it too seriously. May your draft be fruitful, and best of luck to you this season.
