I targeted a number of starters over the second and third tiers this year, and the early results have been pretty, pretty good. In some drafts I did grab one true ace; in others I started with an unproven arm with big upside like Aaron Nola or Luis Castillo. Either way, I tried to make up for my lack of aces with upside and value plays in the mid rounds.
Of course, the season is young and some hitters are braving winter conditions against 95 mph heaters, and as well as these picks are playing, stuff is going to happen.
For those of us relying heavily on starters in the 100-200 ADP range, some quick starts have alleviated a bit of our post-draft pitching anxiety. If you’re not in on these arms now, why not monitor the trade market? One poor start — or an injury on an opponent’s roster — could be the opening you need to reinforce your own starting rotation with a player who didn’t cost a trade-mate much at the draft table.
The following starting pitchers took at least the first steps toward justifying their post-95 NFBC ADPs.
Masahiro Tanaka (ADP: 97.02)
The perennially under-drafted Yankees starter burned some owners last year with a 5.47 ERA over 18 first-half starts. But the enigmatic hurler — who successfully rehabbed a slightly torn elbow ligament back in 2014 — finished the season strong with 12 vintage second-half starts: 3.77 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 and 6.5 K/BB ratio. Through two starts the righty boasts a 2.92 ERA, 0.73 WHIP and 15:0 K/BB over 12.2 IP.
David Price (103.01)
The Red Sox lefty proved himself to be healthy last year, as his 74.2-inning sample mirrored his vintage Rays self. There was risk this draft season, but not enough to push a potentially dominant lefty on a great team into the double-digit picks. Price is unscored-upon over 14 innings so far.
Jose Berrios (103.44)
The young righty’s 14 wins and a 3.89 ERA as a 22-year-old had many drafters hoping for next-level Berrios in 2018. The former no. 1 overall pick flashed that promise in his first start, shutting out the Orioles on three hits, striking out six with one walk April 1.
Alex Wood (114.56)
It’s easy to forget about injury history when you’re watching your eighth-round pick mow down the Giants in his debut outing. Wood one-hit the Dodgers’ nemesis March 30 en route to a .13 WHIP on the day. After giving up three runs in six innings to the Diamondbacks April 4, Wood still has yet to walk a batter this year. His WHIP sits at .50.
Zack Godley (117.14)
Can’t complain about a popular breakout pick beating Clayton Kershaw his first time out. The three Ks in seven innings are an aberration, as the 27-year-old struck out 9.58/9 last year. The humidor should help Godley’s chances to match last year’s excellent 3.37 ERA.
Lance McCullers (134.57)
Houston’s young fireballer flashed his tantalizing potential with 10 Ks and one walk over 5.1 IP and a win against the Rangers March 31. The oft-injured righty dodged a bullet in taking a liner off the ankle that apparently missed bone. He’s good to go against the Padres Friday.
Johnny Cueto (153.07)
It’s tough to know what to make of Cueto’s blister-plagued and extremely disappointing 2017. Drafters who took a flier have been rewarded so far with 13 innings of 0.69 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, although only five Ks to go with it. Cueto has consistently outperformed his FIP projections over the years. When he’s on his game, don’t ask questions — just enjoy it.
Kenta Maeda (193.18)
My favorite pick this draft season, the Dodgers’ 30-year-old righty went his typical five innings against the Giants March 31, though he busted out for 10 strikeouts against zero walks en route to the win. If Maeda throws anywhere near 200 innings — as he’s already done in Japan eight times — he’ll be one of this year’s SP league winners.
Charlie Morton (167.99)
The former journeyman turned World Series Game 7 finisher posted baseball’s 13th best K/9 rate (10.0) among starters who threw 140 or more innings in 2017. There’s both strikeout and win upside in Houston and xFIPs lower than his ERAs the past three seasons.
Jameson Taillon (180.99)
The former no. 2 overall pick returned to the mound last summer just five weeks after undergoing surgery for testicular cancer. His nine Ks in 5.1 innings against Minnesota April 2 flashed the upside that was so evident during his 2016 rookie season.
Dylan Bundy (192.65)
Entering his fourth big league season, it’s hard to believe Bundy is just 25. Through two starts this year, the Orioles righty looks like the guy who finished 2017 on a dominant eight-start run (51.1 IP, 5-1, 3.68 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 10.17 K/9). The AL East is a bummer, but we can dodge a Yankees start now and then.
Follow Danny @_dannycross_.
