I’m still fine-tuning my use of wOBA as a predictor of fantasy success, as evidenced by last year’s cornucopia of misses based on the 2017 full-season wOBA leaderboard. But some of the players who I viewed as potential draft day deals based on 2018 ADP vs 2017 wOBA turned things around in the second half, and others came with varying degrees of question marks — injury histories, small sample sizes, unsustainable BABIPs, etc. We acknowledged some uncertainty going in.
And, in further defense of the exercise, these generally weren’t high-end players capable of tanking our entire seasons with a wasted pick — we were looking for deals and upside. But damn did they underperform as a collection.
A midseason spot check on wOBA leaders over the previous 30 days proved more fruitful. The dudes who were hot in July were largely healthy, happy and raking into August. Seems like the offseason added variance to the first group, which makes sense.
So, let’s try this again, this time honing in the 2018 second-half wOBA leaderboard. By using post-All Start Break numbers we cut the sample size down to just over two months of baseball, which lets us see where young studs like Ronald Acuna and Juan Soto fit into the mix (answer: quite respectably). And we can see past any early-season injuries and some slow starts this way, too.
Alas, the offseason will again throw a wrench into the predictability of the exercise. But the spring will give us a better idea of how some of last season’s big finishers look heading into 2019, potentially at a discount.
(Ranks are second-half wOBA versus NFBC ADP over the past four weeks.)
Justin Turner (wOBA rank: 2; ADP: 111)
The first two names on this list incidentally appeared on my first wOBA piece — both Turner and Tommy Pham ranked in the game’s top 11 in 2017 wOBA. By midseason 2018, they had made the collection look like a bigger bust than it was, but they each turned things around dramatically in the season’s second half.
Durability will always be an issue with Turner, but there’s still obvious upside here — the 34-year-old could fall even further in this year’s drafts, as his .312/62/14/52/2 line is masking a scorching second half: .356/.447/.1.066 with nine bombs, 33 RBI and 41 runs over 55 games. Turner’s .449 wOBA was second only to MVP Christian Yelich after the All-Star Break.
Tommy Pham: (wOBA rank: 4; ADP: 64)
Pham entered last season aggrieved by a contract offer he found insulting, then struggled early and was shipped to the Rays at the deadline. After posting a .248/.331/.730 slash in St. Louis, the breakout appears to have continued in Tampa, where Pham went .343/.448/1.070 with seven homers, 22 RBI, 35 runs and five steals in 39 games.
Pham had already heated up for the Cardinals, as his 50-game second-half wOBA ranked fourth in all of baseball. The 30-year-old ruffled some feathers again this offseason by criticizing the Rays’ home fan base, so at least some drama will follow Pham into 2019. The draft-day price is a little high for my taste, but there’s real potential to improve upon last year’s .275/102/21/63/15 line as part of an improved Tampa lineup.
Brandon Nimmo: (wOBA rank: 10; ADP: 174)
Nimmo is the perfect example of wOBA better predicting real-life production than fantasy production. The young outfielder’s gap-to-gap proficiency bumps his wOBA above players who hit for similar average with fewer extra base hits, but unless more of his doubles start clearing the fence he can only help us so much in 5×5 roto. Same for the low stolen base totals relative to the excellent on-base skills.
Still, at pick 174 and with tons of playing time available, Nimmo is an under-appreciated fantasy asset who could quietly contribute across five categories — double-dig homers and steals won’t hurt us, even if 20/20 might be out of the question. Pay attention to where Mets manager Mickey Callaway slots Nimmo into the lineup: The former first-round pick tallied 45 runs over 65 games batting leadoff last year — a full-season pace of 112.
Joey Gallo: (wOBA rank: 15; ADP: 106)
What to make of baseball’s new Adam Dunn? Gallo was heavily recommended last year after harnessing his monster power in 2017. And the big outfielder did come through with 40 bombs after launching 41 in his first full season.
But it’s tough to imagine Gallo replicating the .239 batting average he put up over 2017’s second half. In 2018, his monthly averages look like this: .222, .204, .143, .159, .294 and .194. One of these things is not like the other, as they say.
With two straight seasons of vastly similar production — .209/85/41/80 vs. .206/82/40/92 — we might already know who Gallo is. And with a weak supporting cast in Texas it’s hard to imagine Gallo pushing 100 runs or RBI. A ninth-round price tag might work for those going heavy on pitching early and cobbling together offense, but I’m going in another direction if my power is already in good shape — say, Justin Turner
Michael Conforto: (wOBA rank: 22; ADP: 107)
Conforto started slow coming off a serious shoulder injury that ended his 2017 season, but it looks like he got healthy as 2018 rolled on. After hitting just .216 over the season’s first 85 games, the 25-year-old went .273/.356/.895 over his final 68 games with 17 homers, 43 RBI and 52 runs. He checked in at No. 22 in wOBA over this stretch — it’s easy to imagine Conforto putting this up over a full season.
Randal Grichuk: (wOBA rank: 23; ADP: 256)
Like Conforto, the Grichuk started off slow, hitting the All-Star Break with a .206 average and only 11 home runs and 28 RBI. But the 26-year-old turned things around in a big way, hitting .280 over his final 60 games with 14 bombs, 33 RBI and 32 runs. His current 21st-round price is guaranteed to rise before late March, but the overall line will mask some of his upside.
Stephen Piscotty: (wOBA rank: 29; ADP: 149)
Grichuk’s former Cardinal teammate bounced back in a bigger way than it seems last year, coming off a lost season during which his mother fell gravely ill. Piscotty showed the hit tool and consistency that helped him put up a .273 average with 22 home runs and 85 RBI in his first full season in 2016.
Last year, Piscotty built upon a solid .264/.326/.782 first half with an impressive .272/.337/.873 slash down the stretch, earning the league’s 29th best second-half wOBA. Piscotty hit 15 of his 27 home runs over his final 63 games and finished the year with a respectable 88 RBI and 78 runs. He’s in line for consistent playing time in a solid offense — a great pick as drafts enter the double-digit rounds.
Follow Danny @_dannycross_.
