Baseball players, at least as professional athletes go, are fairly stable from year to year. Projections may spike or fall due to increases or decreases in opportunity, but talent levels and skill-sets themselves rarely change substantially from one season to the next. When they do change, it is generally incremental and highly measurable. That caveat aside, Freddie Freeman, as impressive a player as he is, will not start to steal bases at Adalberto Mondesi rates, no matter how much he works on his conditioning in the offseason. Joey Gallo will not start making contact as frequently as Tommy La Stella. Pitchers can be subject to more variance due to how many fewer games in which they contribute, but we will not see Kyle Gibson striking hitters out at the same rate we expect Trevor Bauer will, those outcomes are just too unlikely.
One aspect of change we sometimes overlook, or perhaps don’t incorporate enough of into our projections, is the total change in context that can yield more deviations than would otherwise be expected when a player changes teams. There are more factors to consider here than any other type of offseason transition. Will the player have more or less opportunity than in his previous location? How does his new ballpark compare to his old ballpark when factoring in the player’s skill set? How does the context of his new teammates and lineup spot projection affect the expectation of the player’s production?
This will be a two part series, with today’s piece going over some of the biggest names that changed places, and in the future we’ll take a look at some less-heralded but still very fantasy relevant players who changed locations this offseason. Let’s get started with…
Trevor Bauer
The argument could be made that Bauer was the most sought after prize of the off-season, and he could not have ended up in a better spot from a fantasy perspective. After flirtation with nearly half of MLB, Bauer narrowed his choices down to the Dodgers and Mets, and frankly either would have been acceptable. But the Dodgers are the more complete team, have been consistently better on defense, and will provide more run support for the reigning NL Cy Young winner.
It will be interesting to see if a return to his UCLA roots allows him to continue to be the 2020 version of himself, to the tune of striking out 36% of batters he faced (while walking only 6%), and holding opponents to only a .159 BA resulting in a ridiculous .79 WHIP. He also threw two complete game shutouts which was one more than anyone else in baseball, despite having one fewer start due to COVID game cancelations.
And that might be the most interesting bit of context to Bauer’s new locale- he may not have to do as much each night. The Reds 2020 bullpen and frankly the rest of their rotation left plenty to be desired, and the offense was 27th in runs scored. This meant Bauer was constantly locked into pitchers duels, needing every ounce of productivity he had. This won’t be the case in LA, and while he may pick up more win equity due to run support, he will likely not be asked to throw 106 pitches per game like he was in 2020. So, what you gain in efficiency you may give back slightly in overall volume.
Also worth mentioning, Bauer benefited from outlier BABIP (.215) and strand rate (90.9%), both of which are not just a number of standard deviations away from his career averages, but also likely unsustainable for anyone over a full 162 game schedule. So, expect some regression, because, yes, we don’t just expect him to automatically deliver another Cy Young season, but plenty of positives should be expected of Bauer in 2021.
George Springer
Like most Astros, we went into 2020 somewhat expecting Springer’s otherwise excellent bat to cool off a bit, and perhaps only put up better than career average numbers in HBP, due to the revelation of the sign stealing scandal and subsequent lack of home field hitting advantage. And while 2020 did prove to be a slightly down year for Springer, it was likely due more to short season flukes and poor BABIP luck than any fundamental change in his skill set or not knowing what pitch was coming.
Springer left the problem they now have in Houston for the Blue Jays, who in turn left Toronto for Dunedin, FL. Their new ballpark looks like it will be somewhat of a power hitter’s paradise, with short fences and plenty of heat to allow the ball to carry. This, along with a young core of impressive hitting talent, should put Springer in an even better situation than the one he left behind in Houston. The presumptive leadoff man in an order in which 8 of the 9 regulars have 20+ HR power, Springer should have every opportunity to outperform his current high 40s ADP, sandwiched between the likes of Marcell Ozuna and Aaron Judge.
Nolan Arenado
I don’t want to be the one to say it, but it looks like Nolan Arenado has the makings of being potentially just a guy from a fantasy perspective. Arenado bulls will point to DJ LeMahieu as the poster boy for post-Coors success, but leaving Coors for the Bronx is not at all considered a pitchers park, whereas Arenado’s new home in St Louis very much is. Then there is the supporting cast to consider- LeMahieu was asked to set the table for a modern day murderers’ row of Judge, Voit, Stanton, Torres et al. The Cardinals, despite having some talent, will not provide the same sort of pressure on opposing pitchers.
Even more concerning than park effects and the lackluster supporting cast is the fact that Arenado will be coming off an injury that held him to what was by all accounts his worst season as a major leaguer in 2020. While I’m willing to overlook a lot in last year’s surreal season, injuries and a now almost 30 year old Arenado in his new surroundings may not be the fantasy superstar we are used to.
This isn’t to say of course that he won’t still be productive and useful, just that he is not at his current ADP. While most analysts rate him as the 3rd best 3B behind Jose Ramirez and Manny Machado, I wouldn’t be surprised to see if he is outperformed by either Eugenio Suarez or Yoan Moncada when all is said and done.
Francisco Lindor
The kid with the soon-to-be 9 figure smile was traded to the Mets in another cost-cutting move by the franchise formerly known as the Cleveland Indians. While 2020 was not up to Lindor’s lofty standards on the surface, there’s no underlying reason to believe one of the game’s best SS will have anything but a stellar debut year with the Mets. Both power and speed numbers should normalize after a dip last year, and he’ll be hitting in the top third of what will be an absolute nightmare of a lineup for opposing pitchers, with difficult outs and dangerous power up and down the lineup. All of that said, while I’m generally more bullish on Lindor than the masses, he is leaving a tremendous hitting environment (both Progressive Field and against AL central pitching in general) and going to a less tremendous one (Citi Field is a bad hitters park).
While industry consensus has Lindor as the fourth best SS in the game, his new surroundings and offensive environment could give him the upside to be the second best SS in the game, especially if he gets back to his 20+ SB ways that we were accustomed to in years past and hits closer to .300. Rarely is such a popular player underrated by the fantasy community, and we should not hesitate to take advantage.
