Building a fantasy team is all about finding value, whether in an auction or snake draft. And there’s no better way to gain an edge than passing on a player whose production we can duplicate — or occasionally best — a couple rounds down the line.
This exercise is not to demean any of the players we’re trying to replace. These dudes are great — that’s why it’s so hard to pass them up. But there will come a time when a big bat unexpected falls your way or it’s prudent to invest in one more early arm, and the following later picks can offer a path toward recovery.
Lorenzo Cain | 2018: 90/10/38/30 .308/.395/.417 | NFBC ADP (Since Feb. 1): 66
Ender Inciarte | 2018: 83/10/61/28 .265/.325/.380 | ADP: 139
There’s a lot to like about Cain, whose move to Milwaukee paid dividends last season. Good park, great lineup, bankable speed.
But I hate paying such a high price for so few home runs and RBI. Inciarte matched the Brewers’ leadoff man last year in all counting stats, even as his average dropped to .265 after two seasons with marks of .291 and .304. The 28-year-old is looking like the Braves’ leadoff hitter, which will guarantee a high run total even if the steals come in at closer to 20 than 30.
Right around Inciarte’s ADP you can also find young Nationals speedster Victor Robles, who nabbed three bags in five attempts during his 21-game audition last year. Robles has 70-grade wheels, and ZiPS has the 21-year-old penciled in for double-digit homers and 28 steals.
These days, I’m looking at outfielders with more pop around Cain’s asking price.
Jean Segura | 2018: 91/10/63/20 .304/.341/.415 | ADP: 62
Elvis Andrus | 2018: 53/6/33/5 .256/.308/.367 | ADP: 185
The Segura/Andrus comp isn’t as similar as some of the others here, but the Rangers’ three-hitter is offering a lot of what we’re paying top dollar for in Segura. Again, this isn’t to say Segura is a bad investment — I fully believe he’ll reward his owners this year atop a loaded Phillies lineup.
But rewind to 2017 Andrus, who hit .297 over 158 games with 20 home runs, 88 RBI, 100 runs and 25 stolen bases. I’m shocked he’s buried so far these days considering how recently he was a top-40 player. Andrus was again hitting over .300 last year before getting plunked in the elbow, breaking part of the bone and ruined his season.
Andrus and his young buddy Nomar Mazara are two of the most under-appreciated fantasy assets available this year. And with shortstop so deep, others are going to be loaded in the early going and unlikely to snipe Andrus from us anywhere near his current ADP.
Andrew Benintendi | 2018: 103/16/87/21 .290/.366/.465 | ADP: 29
Eddie Rosario | 2018: 87/24/77/8 .288/.323/.479 | ADP: 86
Mitch Haniger | 2018: 90/26/93/8 .285/.366/.493 | ADP: 91
Like Segura, Benintendi is offering bankable counting stats across the board. But there are still aces on the table at pick 29, so I’m looking down the ballot for guys who can partially replicate what the young Boston outfielder brings to the table.
There appear to be several. Rosario is the highest priced, coming in at pick 86 off a 138-game campaign that nearly duplicated his 2017 season. A quad injury slowed him down during the second half or we might have been privy to a full-on breakout. Rosario hit .240 after the All-Star Break and attempted only two steals. There could be a lot more coming here sooner than later.
Haniger is another highly respected bat to target in the back half of the top 10 rounds. The 28-year-old continued his 2017 half-season breakout last year, knocking 26 homers, 38 doubles and four triples.
Nicholas Castellanos (88/23/89/2 | ADP: 91) is another mashing outfielder in the same mold, and he could be destined for a better offense somewhere in the AL come trade deadline time.
Ozzie Albies | 105/24/72/14 .261/.305/.452 | ADP: 59
Rougned Odor | 76/18/63/12 .253/.326/.424 | ADP: 123
There could be more in store for the Braves’ stellar 22-year-old second baseman. But that possibility is baked in to a top 60 ADP.
Odor is really young himself — he just turned 25 last month — and already has two 30 home run seasons under his belt. Odor walked more last year (8.0%, up from 4.9%) and hit the ball hard as hell (45.2 Hard%, up from 36.7%). When the projections, which are known to be conservative, expect him to push a 30/20 season you know there is underlying evidence supporting a breakout.
This guy could seriously be a league-winner this year.
Follow Danny @_dannycross_.
