It was rare to see a pitcher go in the first round of the draft during the the first decade of the NFBC. Historically, teams would have three hitters and one pitcher in the first four rounds. Teams looked to get ninety home runs in the first four rounds, figuring that pitching would be available later in the draft, or that a team could pick up reasonable starters through the FAAB process. The thought process was that it was too hard to build a team with multiple pitchers in the first few rounds.
Pitchers, it was thought, were too risky. Performances varied more than hitters, as pitchers only had about thirty chances each year. One bad start could negatively affect a team for a long period of time, whereas hitters could go 0 for a series, and come back with a three-hit game and be just fine.
Pitchers’ health was also a concern as pitchers seemed to get injured more often than hitters.
Fantasy football had a similar thought process. For years, running backs ruled the first couple of rounds. Running backs could be counted on for thirty carries and a were a reliable source of points.
However, within the past couple of years, both trends changed. Running backs were no longer dominating the first round of fantasy drafts, as wide receivers ruled the day. That trend is changing as this year, you will find at least 8 running backs in the first twelve picks of fantasy football drafts.
With injuries, poor performances, and limited innings, it may be time to revisit drafting multiple pitchers in the first four rounds. Pitchers are getting injured more often than hitters. The numbers bear that out. Pitching performances are more volatile than hitting performances, so the variance is greater. Finally, partially due to injuries, other than a handful of pitchers, pitchers are not making as many starts and are not going as deep into games. These factors are making the top pitchers not worth a whole lot more than the rest of the pack.
Here’s a look, using NFBC ADP at those pitchers:
Clayton Kershaw. ADP 7.37. Multiple DL trips and one win thus far.
Max Scherzer. ADP 8.98. Stud
Chris Sale. ADP 11.98. Stud
Corey Kluber. ADP 13.38. Stud
Stephen Strasburg. ADP 25.18. Presently on the DL. 2018 future unknown.
Noah Syndergaard. APD 28.33. Presently on the DL. 2018 future unknown.
Luis Severino. ADP 31.92. Stud.
Jacob deGrom. ADP 34.45. ERA/Whip excellent. Four wins total thus far.
Carlos Carrasco. ADP 35.29. ERA of 3.90 doesn’t bode well for your first pitcher.
Justin Verlander. ADPD 39.90. Steal and stud.
Madison Bumgarner. ADP 45.19. Would have had a higher ADP but his injury happened before many drafts. Missed first third of the season. First two starts nothing to get excited about.
Robbie Ray. ADP 47.11. DL. Major disappointment,
Yu Darvish. ADP 47.57. DL. Major disappointment.
Zack Greinke. ADP 48.93. Five wins and an ERA of 3.53. Meh.
Carlos Martinez. ADP 52.38. Three wins and multiple injuries.
Chris Archer. ADP 54.30. DL after poor start.
Aaron Nola. ADP 60.56. Great first third of 2018.
Jose Quintana. ADP 67.57. Disappointing start of 2018.
Eighteen starting pitchers were chosen among the first 68 picks. Just five of those eighteen (Scherzer, Sale, Kluber, Verlander and Nola) have rewarded owners. Two more, deGrom and Greinke have held their own, leaving eleven of the eighteen performing poorly, or sitting on the DL, or both.
It’s been said multiple times that you can’t win a league in the first round. The same is true of the first four rounds. However, you can certainly lose a league in the first round or the first four rounds. Teams drafting two pitchers in the first four rounds that included Kershaw and any combination of Carrasco, Bumgarner, Ray, Darvish, Martinez, Archer or Quintana know exactly what I mean.
Full disclosure. I drafted Kershaw in the main event with my first round pick. Yes, I’m bitter.
Best of luck,
Buter
Follow Buster @BusterH_esq.
