With the NFL regular season kicking off in a week, Labor Day weekend will be the time when many fantasy football drafts will occur. The purpose of this column is to prepare you for the most exciting 90 minutes of the season. Before we get into the specifics of a draft strategy, I want to give you a piece of advice. Don’t panic during the draft. No matter how much you prepare, your draft won’t go exactly like you think. Expect the unexpected.
When former heavyweight champion Mike Tyson was asked by a reporter about his opponent’s plan to beat him, Tyson said “everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.” I have a plan for my home league draft on Monday night. I plan on taking my second running back with the 17th pick. Najee Harris, Antonio Gibson, or Joe Mixon will be my RB2. But what if all three of them are gone? I’m on the clock. What is my plan D going to be?
My Plan D will be to take a damn good wide receiver. I know there will be one available because the other players have passed over them in a running back feeding frenzy. Stefon Diggs will probably still be on the board. Maybe, I’ll even have Tyreek Hill staring me in the face. In a recent public league draft, Hill went 19th. My point is that there is always good value in the early rounds, but it’s up to you to recognize it and capitalize it. Be flexible!
My point is things will even out. If there is a feeding frenzy on running backs in the early rounds, there will be some tremendous wide receivers left on the board for you to grab. In a recent public league draft, I wound up with Devante Adams and Tyreek Hill as my two starting wide receivers. FYI, wide receivers count just as much as running backs. If you get 40 points from your wideouts, you can live with twenty from your running backs.
In a recent 10-team PPR mock draft, I saw several running backs I had targeted vanish early. Harris and Gibson were gone in the second, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was gone before my pick in the third, David Montgomery and James Robinson were gone before the fourth, Myles Gaskin was gone before my pick in the 6th. D’Andre Swift wound up as my RB2, but I also had DeAndre Hopkins (WR1), Keenan Allen (WR2) and Robert Woods (flex).
The focus on running backs early is justified, but it’s not because they are better than wide receivers. You can afford to wait on wideouts because this is the deepest group of WRs in memory. I believe you can find fantasy-relevant wide receivers as late as the 12th or 13th round. If I draft running four running backs in the first five rounds, I’m confident I can make up the difference in the later rounds. I’ll still be able to draft five or six.
Let me drop a few names on you. If you play in a Yahoo League, you won’t believe how late you might get JuJu Smith-Schuster. In a recent mock draft, he was taken with the 101st pick. That’s stealing. Other good wide receivers often available after the 100th pick include: Michael Pittman Jr., Brandin Cooks, DeVonta Smith, Will Fuller V, Jaylen Waddle, Laviska Shenault Jr., Michael Gallup, D.J. Chark Jr., Marquez Callaway and Marvin Jones.
Okay, let’s start at the beginning, where you want to draft a player you can count on in the first round to deliver consistent production throughout the season. The problem is that everyone looks risky to me. Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook and even Alvin Kamara are injury prone. So, is Saquon Barkley, and he’s on a really bad team. Jonathan Taylor finished the season strong last year against inferior teams. Devante Adams is the No. 1 wide receiver.
ROUND 1
Of course, you want a top running back here. If you’re picking early in the round, you can feel good about taking McCaffrey, Cook, Kamara, or Derrick Henry. If you’re in a standard (not PPR) league, Henry can be drafted ahead of Kamara and possibly even Cook. If you’re drafting later in the round, it’s more complicated. Ezekiel Elliott is No. 5 according to ADP, but I wouldn’t touch him. I would take Travis Kelce, or Adams if I don’t have a top-four pick.
ROUND 2
A strong case can be made for taking one of the elite tight ends early in the draft. If Kelce were to fall to you early in the second round, take him. If you’re in a PPR league, and Austin Ekeler is there, take him and feel lucky. Otherwise, you need to select the best player. You can’t go wrong with an elite wide receiver (Adams, Hill, Stefon Diggs, or Hopkins) in the second. Harris and Gibson are also solid options if you can get them later in the round.
ROUND 3
It’s likely that the top 14 running backs will be gone as you enter the third round, so the best players on the board in this round will likely be wide receivers. Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Keenan Allen, Terry McLaurin and Allen Robinson are going in this range. I’d take any of these with the exception of Brown. I’m fading Brown because I am concerned there won’t be enough targets for him in this run-first offense with Julio Jones in town.
ROUND 4
If you’re in a 12-team league, you’re close to the 50th pick as this round ends. You want to have two running backs rostered by then. Early in the round, you could find James Robinson. Swift’s ADP has been sinking since his groin injury, and it’s possible that he could be available late in this round, or early in the 5th. Myles Gaskin is another back that I like a lot, and he might still be on the board. Mike Davis also be another option.
ROUND 5
If one of the above-mentioned running backs slips into this round, take him if you still need a running back. But by this point in the draft, your focus should shift to wide receivers. There are plenty of good names that should be available in this round. Here are a few that I like: Tyler Lockett, Diontae Johnson, D.J. Moore and Brandon Aiyuk all have ADPs between 48 and 60. Tee Higgins has an ADP of 64, but I’m comfortable putting him in this group.
ROUND 6
You’ve probably heard about the running back dead zone, and analysts disagree on where it starts. There is still some RB value here if you can get Chase Edmonds, or Raheem Mostert. The latter is an exceptional back that could be an RB1 if he stays healthy. If they’re gone, there’s plenty of WR talent left on the board. Another Pittsburgh wideout to consider is Chase Claypool. I’m fading Odell Beckham Jr., but like I Jerry Jeudy a lot, too.
ROUND 7
How about drafting another wide receiver in this round? It’s likely that Robby Anderson is still available. He surprised everyone by getting 136 targets last year in his first season with Carolina. If you didn’t get Jeudy in the last round, he’s probably gone. But you could get Courtland Sutton. Devonta Smith, a rookie out of Alabama, also has a lot of upside if he develops the right chemistry with Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts.
ROUND 8
If you haven’t drafted a tight end yet, this is a good time to think about getting one. If Logan Thomas is available, he’s a good value in the eighth round. This might also be the round where you pick up a quarterback. Matthew Stafford, Ryan Tannehill and Jalen Hurts are all likely to be taken here. If you want another wide receiver, Corey Davis looks like the WR1 for the Jets. Or, you could take Deebo Samuel if he’s still on the board.
ROUNDS 9-15
There’s no reason why you can’t add two or three more receivers in the second-half of the draft from some of the names listed above. If you need a tight end in the late rounds, there are a few sleepers to consider – I like Jonnu Smith, who should be available in the 13th round. Gerald Everett is another option who would likely be on the board if Smith is gone. You need to get your defense and kicker, but do that at the end of the draft.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, runs his own blog at ww.doubtingthomassports.com. Follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
