I went big on Antonio Callaway last week, spending 411 FAAB, 373 FAAB and 291 FAAB (out of an original budget of 1,000 FAAB), respectively. Turns out, I overpaid. Dramatically. The second high bid to my 411 bid was 249. The runner up bid to my 373 FAAB was 230 and the next highest bid to my 291 bid was 181. So, clearly, I “wasted” about 100 FAAB on each bid.
However, the question is, “Is overbidding bad?”
Ok, no one wants to waste money. No matter who you are, I’m willing to bet that you’d like a deal. Free pizza tastes better than pizza you bought. Getting 20% off of something that you were already planning on buying is a good thing, right? Black Friday shopping exists for a reason. Ever been to AliExpress. Come on, it feels good, doesn’t it?
In 2011. Ron Johnson took over as the then new CEO of JC Penney. His idea was to offer everyday low prices at all times, and no sales whatsoever. The idea predictably failed in epic fashion and Johnson was replaced as CEO. As much as customers hated clipping coupons, they felt a feeling of achievement when they saved money with a coupon. Plus, they’d just shop at Macy’s or other department stores when those stores had a sale, or Kohls, Rosss or TJ Maxx for discounted clothes, and those shoppers didn’t bother with Penney’s “everyday low prices.” JC Penney still hasn’t recovered from Johnson’s colossal mistake.
I don’t shop at Penney’s, with or without a coupon, but like everyone else, I like a bargain. Nothing thrills me more than to outbid an opposing general manager by 1 FAAB. So, you might think that I’d be disappointed at wasting more than 100 of my original FAAB by overbidding on Callaway.
I’m not.
First, let’s look at my need. I went big on running backs and tight ends early in the drafts/auctions, creating a gaping hole in my wide receiver core. My Primetime Team (411 Bid) has Josh Gordon, Cooper Kupp, Nelson Agholor and a variety of part-time players like Tre’Quan Smith, Donte Moncrief and Phillip Dorsett. My Auction team was in a similar position, with Tyler Locket, Demaryius Thomas and Gordon, along with Ted Ginn, Dorsett, Dante Pettis, DeVante Parker and Taywan Taylor. My Satellite team was going with Keelan Cole, Pierre Garcon, Gordon (yes, three shares of Josh Gordon), Mike Williams, Ryan Grant, and Christian Kirk.
Clearly, Callaway a likely number two wide receiver on Cleveland would fit right in to each of my teams, not only now but also during the bye weeks.
Next, let’s look at the FAAB. FAAB only goes for 13 weeks and I hadn’t spent anything significant prior to weeks one or two. After week three, there are only ten remaining weeks. As I’ve written before, early FAAB spending gets you a player for a lot longer period of time than late FAAB spending. Whether he pans out or not, I’ve got Callaway for weeks 3-13, plus the playoffs. That sure beats spending the majority of the FAAB in week 10. Yes, I’m among the poorest of the owners in each of those three leagues, but even being the richest doesn’t mean that you automatically get the player you want. It just means that you have more FAAB to spend, or more likely overspend, on such a player(s). Why not overspend early and get a potential difference maker for a longer period of time?
Now, let’s look at how Callaway was treated in other leagues. In the other Primetime Leagues, Callaway was bought for more FAAB than I bid five times (666, 488, 477, 451, and 451). In the seven auction leagues, Callaway owners paid more than I paid in three leagues (FAABs of 515, 445, and 377), and less than I bid in three leagues (328, 221 and 221). My bid was actually the median bid.
In Satellite leagues, Callaway went for more than my 291 bid in nine different leagues.
So, while my bids turned out to be quite excessive in my individual leagues, they weren’t necessarily that out of whack in other leagues.
That brings up the next question. Is it better to overbid by 100 FAAB, or to underbid by 1 FAAB? Think about that one for a moment.
I’ll take overbidding every single day, and twice on Sundays. When I placed my bids, I made an informed decision based upon my need, the amount of FAAB I had, the perceived value of the player, the need of those in my league for that player, and the amount of FAAB remaining for those teams in my league that needed the player. I also looked at the FAAB spending to date, and the runner up bids for those players taken.
When I was done with the valuation, I added 20% to each bid, as I felt with Gordon moving to New England, and the possibility of rookie Baker Mayfield taking over at some point during the season, Callaway was more important to me than my league mates. As you can see, my bids in each league varied tremendously based upon these factors, from a low of 291 to a high of 411. And, as you read earlier, I won all three FAAB bids.
With Mayfield now getting the starting job, I’m willing to bet that if Callaway were available this week, my bids would not only win, but they wouldn’t be close.
As much as I’d like a bargain, and as much as I wished that I hadn’t wasted 100 FAAB in each league in getting Callaway, I’m ecstatic to have won all three bids. Yes, Callaway was less than stellar in week #3, but there are ten more weeks left in the regular season. Better to overpay by 100 and get the player you want, than to get outbid and have to start Tre’Quan Smith. Don’t you think?
Overbidding isn’t something that you should hope to do. However, looking at the alternative of getting outbid, overbidding is certainly not a bad way of going.
Of course, I overbid last year as well, getting Rishard Higgins of the Browns last year after his seven reception, 95-yard week 2 game at Baltimore. Higgins went on to catch more than two balls in just two games, didn’t score a touchdown until worthless week 17, and gained just 129 yards total in weeks 3-14. I’m hopeful that Callaway proves more productive than Higgins.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
