Revisiting our preseason discussion on how many points it takes to win the NFBC, over the last seven years the NFBC Overall champion earned between 86.3% to 90.5% of the overall possible points. This year there are 5,100 possible points; 2,550 each in pitching and hitting categories. Converting these numbers into raw points scaled to this year’s 510 teams, that translates to 4,401 to 4,615 points you would need to get this year to take home the grand prize.
In a balanced lineup of course this means 2,200 to 2,300 in both hitting and pitching to fall in that range. Yates Blanton’s Sweathogs have lead the pack since back in week 7 with just under 4,400 points, ranging from 4,342 to 4,392. The high water mark this year was way back in week 4 when Kyle Brinkmann’s team ‘JK ALL THE WAY’ sat with 4,459.5 points. It’s too early to pinpoint an exact point target, but 4,400 at a minimum is likely what you will need, and 4,600 if you want to be sure. You need to average 440 per category (or 460 on the high end), so if you only have one closer (yes, you can win with one closer, but I don’t recommend it and the margin of error is very small), you’ll have to make up the points elsewhere.
Looking at the top 10 teams overall and their roster constructs, the traditional two closers and seven starters is the most common, with four teams rolling that alignment out, three teams have three closers and six starting pitchers. 3 teams have non-closer relievers active, including two teams that have two middle relievers, or four relievers total and just five starters. I’m one of those teams bouncing between three and four relievers (one to two middle relievers) because the starters on the wire are too ripe with ERA and WHIP bombs at the moment. The ideal construct is seven starters and two closers, and then if they don’t both post elite Save totals (which is usually the case) then start a third closer for roughly two months, give or take, to optimize category efficiency. Obviously we don’t always have that luxury. Rolling out two or three unproven starters each week is playing with fire. Five teams drafted just one elite ace in the first four rounds.
The other five teams drafted TWO elite aces, usually in the first three rounds. Interestingly, Kenley Jansen (41) and Craig Kimbrel (51) were nowhere to be found among the leaders. That means the earliest anyone took a closer was the 5th round, and only two teams at that. One could argue that’s simply a result of disappointing performances but therein lies the rub. It’s this volatility and unpredictability that makes eschewing the most expensive relievers a wise move. Despite this, punting closers at the draft table and playing the wire is also a dubious proposition. Nine of the top 10 teams drafted at least one of their firemen on draft day. Our team being the only one with a single Saves option at the start, and that because I waited too long and got closed out. It’s not a path I’d recommend.
Nine of the top 10 have a speed merchant contributing 13 or more stolen bases and all but ONE of them had an ADP in the first five rounds. Among these, only Michael Taylor could be had later. Bypassing a speedster early can be done, but if you do you HAVE to hit on your SB flier (either in the draft or later on the wire) or you’re pretty much toast in the national.
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