A refrain I often hear in NFBC analysis is that it’s impossible to win the Main Event when you punt a category. This is incorrect. In fact, when we won the NFBC Overall championship in 2014, a quasi punt of the Saves category was forced upon us.
Over the bulk of the season, we essentially had only one closer, but the points that gave us in the Saves category were lost by opportunity costs in strikeouts and wins(one closer merely gets you a token amount of points, it’s the marginal points gained by the second closer that starts raking them in).
We would have been better off just forgetting saves altogether. I wouldn’t recommend punting any category from the outset; nevertheless it can be done with a little luck and near perfect execution. For it to work, you need the overall leader to have less than 90% of the overall points. In 2014, our 3,643 points represented 86.7% of the overall possible points. Here is a list of the overall champion totals the past few years:
2011 – 3,407/3,900 – 87.4% (390 teams)
2012 – 3,628/4,200 – 86.3% (420 teams)
2013 – 3,939/4,350 – 90.5% (435 teams)
2014 – 3,643/4,200 – 86.7% (420 teams)
2015 – 4,026/4,500 – 89.5% (450 teams)
2016 – 4,067/4,500 – 90.4% (450 teams)
2017 – 4,344/4,800 – 90.5% (480 teams)
Four of the last seven years, punting a category made it impossible, or virtually impossible to win the overall. However in 2011, 2012, and 2014, the overall champion posted ‘merely’ 86.5%-87.4% of the possible points. Over the last seven years, the winner posted an average of 88.7% of all possible points, but a logical goal is to construct a balanced team with roughly 90% in each category. This year, with an NFBC record 510 teams, you want to shoot for 460 points in each statistical category (technically 90% gives you 459, so I rounded up). In other words, a top 50 finish with each fantasy statistic takes you to the promised land. Translated into raw stats, your totals in each category last year would have been:
BA – .274
R – 1,120
HR – 339
RBI – 1,094
SB – 156
ERA – 3.73
WHIP – 1.22
K – 1,452
W – 102
S – 89
The weekly pace to get there would be (26 weeks):
BA – .274
R – 43
HR – 13
RBI – 42
SB – 6
ERA – 3.73
WHIP 1.22
K – 56
W – 4
S – 3.4
It’s obviously too early to make much out of the two and a half week sample we have to this point, but once we are a month into the season, this can be a loose guide in gauging if your team has proper balance, and steer your resources in the right direction during each week’s FAAB. In terms of you FAAB budget, my philosophy has been to spend $ early and often. Hoarding your cash doesn’t work because of deflation.
Each week, any FAAB dollars that you keep lose value due to the diminishing impact that any potential pickup can have on the standings. I view the rate of FAAB deflation as roughly 4% to start the season, with a rate that increases each week. $1,000 kept until the final month might only retain 16% of its initial value. Your $1,000 is now only worth $160 in terms of actual spending power. You still want to keep some money around to cover injuries, but it’s best to leave dollar days to the final weeks of the season rather than hoard FAAB cash.
The overall championship is why we play in the NFBC, and what we’ll be focused on here each week, and yet the league prizes are nothing to sneeze at. I took a large sample of Main Event leagues and tallied up the average points required to place:
1st place – 118 points
2nd place – 111 points
3rd place – 102 points
Eye on the NFBC/NFFC is moving to a weekly presence this year. Come back here every Sunday for more NFBC (and NFFC during football season) nuggets, and follow Greg @liquidhippo.
