The summer-long grind offers a lot of opportunity to repair our fantasy baseball rosters on the go — making trades, working the waiver wire, stashing injured players who might help us out later. There’s obviously a healthy middle ground between dramatically blowing things up in April and cautiously tinkering as the weeks go by. But for all our best guesses — and the wealth of analytics available — players are going to go through ups and downs as the season progresses.
The numbers on the backs of baseball cards don’t necessarily become the stats they are in linear fashion. And sometimes our best — and worst — moves can simply come down to timing.
This season, I’ve had my share of both, but it’s the misses that are really standing out as I look back on one roto squad in particular that just couldn’t break into the top three, no matter where I shifted my resources. It’s worth pointing out that a few of these might have gone the other way had I waited another week or two to make my move.
Good job drafting Matt Carpenter!
(Sucks that you dropped him in April.) In my defense, here’s Carpenter’s slash line on April 22, when I let him go in a 12-teamer that uses OPS, a category where the Cardinals infielder has been particularly helpful over the years: .182/.325/.658, two home runs, 10 RBI and nine runs.
Before we pull the curtain back on the insane numbers Carpenter has put up since that fateful day, let me defend myself. First, recall that Carpenter had question marks this draft season because of a lingering shoulder issue — we weren’t sure he could even play third base all season long. And when I looked under the hood past the .182 average, I found some concerns, starting with a dramatic change in plate discipline — basically, Carpenter stopped swinging at a bunch of strikes.
Carpenter has typically been among the league leaders in taking balls, and his O-Swing was steady, around his career rate of 20%. But through 83 plate appearances, his Z-Swing% of 48.4% had dropped well below his career 56.5%. The reduction corresponded with a five point drop in overall Swing%, down from a 36.7% career mark to 31.8%.
It’s late April and I’m looking at a guy hitting .182 with a .152 ISO coming off an injury who — all of the sudden — doesn’t want to swing at strikes. Sure, you can have him.
Well, most are familiar with how his season has turned around, and it’s even more insane if you start with my drop date as a starting point. Since April 22, Carpenter has hit .283/.395/.980 with 33 home runs, 67 RBI and 92 runs. His plate discipline numbers have come right back to career rates — he’s actually swinging a little more than usual.
Carpenter has been an underappreciated fantasy commodity for a long time, but it’s still shocking how his career year started off with so many concerning numbers.
Jose Berrios for Eddie Rosario, fair trade
A month after dropping Carpenter, I swapped Eddie Rosario for Jose Berrios. Extremely fair trade on paper — top 50 hitter for top 50 starting pitcher. Two teams in need, trading from strengths.
Well, neither owner got much out of this deal.
Here’s Berrios prior to my acquisition: 16 starts, 8 wins, 3.15 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 9.52 K/9, 5.45 K/BB, 21.9 K-BB%.
Since June 26: 13 starts, 3 wins, 4.84 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.53 K/9, 2.16 K/BB, 11.5 K-BB%.
Here’s Rosario before I traded him: .320/.357/.938, 17 home runs, 50 RBI, 54 runs, six stolen bases.
Since: .250/.284/.644, six home runs, 26 RBI, 31 runs, two stolen bases.
I’ll target both next spring if they come at a discount, planning to sell high if they start off quickly again.
Rougned Odor, man of mystery
On July 20, I pointed out in a column on wOBA risers that the Rangers second baseman had seriously been heating up. Odor had missed most of April with a hamstring injury, but over the previous month had mirrored his excellent 2016 numbers after struggling last season. This is a young player with clear 30-homer pop and the potential for a lot more.
Since that time, Rougned has gone .267/.339/.872 with 11 homers, 35 RBI, 35 runs and two steals over 213 plate appearances.
Of course, I didn’t pick him up because I drafted too many second basemen this year. But that’s another regret for another day.
Follow Danny @_dannycross_.
