Mining for Statcast Fantasy Fortunes (Hitters)

The last time we got together I introduced the concept of using Statcast to generate expected stats. To quickly revisit, by taking the Exit Velocity (EV), Launch Angle (LA), handedness of the batter, and whether the ball was pulled, centered or hit the opposite way, we can calculate the expected stats for all Batted Ball Events (BBE). By taking the unique combination of each player’s Batted Ball Events and summing their odds we can then generate each player’s expected stats. In addition to figuring the player’s expected stats like Batting Average, Home Runs and RBI I also like to include a valuation system for these stats. The valuation system that I prefer is my spin on Standings Gained Points (SGP):

• Player A hit 35 HRs. The average player hit 27 HRs. The SGP Value for HRs is 8.0
• The Typical SGP Valuation: Player A HRs 35/8.0 = 4.75 SGP in HRs.
• My adjusted SGP (aSGP) Valuation: Player A HRs 35 – 27 League Average HRs = 8/8.0 = 1.00 SGP in HRs

I prefer my aSGP method as it sets ratio SGP’s on an even footing with counting stat SGP’s and it easily allows for position scarcity calculations.

PLAYERS I’M BUYING

Marcell Ozuna: The Rare Gem

SGP Values based on a 10 team, 5x5, 14 hitters league

Busch Stadium is a tough place to hit but it isn’t this tough. Ozuna had an expected batting bverage of .285 and an expected wOBA of .391 but somehow only managed a .243 and .347, respectively. Throw in a couple of broken fingers that knocked him out for about 5 weeks and Ozuna couldn’t catch a break in 2019.

With a full season of health and just average luck, Ozuna xStats pacing was for .285, 103 runs, 39 HR, 104 RBI and at least 14 SB, to go along with an 11.3% BB rate and a very passable 76% CT rate. Ozuna’s full season xSGP of 4.62 would have made him the 13^th most valuable hitter, just ahead of Juan Soto and Pete Alonzo and just behind Mookie Betts.

Ozuna is currently going 98^th overall, according to Fantasy Pros’ Average Draft Position. That’s the 67^th hitter taken. With some terrible fortune and missing 5 weeks with broken fingers, last year he was the 64^th most valuable hitter! At 29 years old, batting in the middle of what should be a potent Braves line-up, Ozuna should be in line for a penthouse year but he’s going for basement prices.

Carlos Correa: Wildcat?

I get it, Correa plays a deep position for the much maligned Houston Astros and has battled back issues. We’ve all heard the old saying, “Have you ever met a guy the used to have back problems? Neither have I.”

Well, that’s an old man’s tale. I remember owning the “injury prone” Ian Kinsler during his early 20s. He was oft injured in his first five season, and then he played 153 games or more for six of the next seven seasons.

Correa is 25, bats in the middle of a world championship caliber offense that could actually be better with a “full” year of Yordan Alvarez and the potential emergence of a 30/25 bat in Kyle Tucker.

Comparing actual and the expected stats nothing really jumps out at us…at first glance. Virtually all of the actual numbers are in line with expected. That’s actually a bonus for Correa.

The last three seasons or so Houston has played as a very good park for hitters. Alex Bregman, George Springer, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Yuli Gurriel and Michael Brantley averaged 4.60 SGP’s per 650 PAs but only had an Expected average SGP per 650 of 2.68. That additional 1.92 SGP represents about an additional 13 Runs, 6 HRs, and 13 RBI per player.

Correa is currently going 93^rd, which is the 65^th hitter off the board. That 4.06 Expected SGP over 650 PA represents the 18^th best hitter, or the 30^th overall player. You could strike it big or go bust. I’m happily taking the risk at my middle infield slot.

Nick Castellanos: Diamond in the Rough

Castellanos is this year’s biggest venue change beneficiary. Last year, while playing mostly for the talent depleted Tigers, he managed “only” 173 combined Runs + RBI but his expected runs + RBI was a very credible 199. Not only did Castellanos spend four months playing for the worst offense in baseball (3.61 runs/game versus the league average of 4.83), but he also played in the second worst home run for right-handed batters. To make problems even worse, his power strength is to center field, whereas Comerica Field allowed just 34 home runs for every 100 hit in the average MLB park. The results? Castellanos was tied for fifth in MLB for expected homers to center with 13; he hit just seven.

There were three players tied with 13 xHRs and four players with between 14 to 16 xHRs. The six players that Castellanos is grouped with are Pete Alonzo (16), Nelson Cruz (15), Mike Trout (15), Christian Yelich (13) and Ronald Acuna (13). They had a combined xHRs of 85 and a combined actual mark of 85.

Now that you’re focused on actual versus expected homers, take a look at Castellanos’. He hit 27 long balls with an adjusted 37 in a neutral park. Well, Castellanos is not going to the average MLB park, he’s going to Coorsinnati! In fact, the Great American Smallpark is actually a better home run park than Coors!

Playing the Red’s schedule last year, Castellanos would have had an expected line of .280, 39 HRs and 208 combined runs + RBI. This would have made Castellanos the 25^th most valuable hitter in fantasy baseball, sandwiched between Nelson Cruz and Francisco Lindor. Castellanos is currently going 87^th overall, the 60^th hitter off the board.

Last year, Castellanos was the 56^th most valuable hitter in fantasy baseball. He’s 28, he’s a not so poor man’s J.D. Martinez, he’s moving to the second best right handed hitter’s ballpark for power and third best overall, and is draft cost is less than what he produced last year. Yes please!