It’s Not About Projections, But Rather How You Use Them

The basis of the column is simple.  I believe that while projections are important, the managers who best construct their teams are the managers that most often cash at the end of the year.  Projections are readily available on dozens of fantasy sites.  For the most part, the projections are all fairly similar. As a result, drafters pretty much use almost identical information come draft time.  Certainly, some drafters value different breakout potential players and identify busts differently than other drafters, but for the most part, we are all drafting from very similar lists.

Injuries play a large part, as does a modicum of luck.  Those things have a way of evening out over the years, and yet a small circle of managers win more often than others players.  It’s not about projections, and seeing that a small number of managers win more often than others, it’s not about injuries and luck.

Successful fantasy managers are those who know how to construct a team.  That single skill, more so than any other, is what separates the good managers from the truly great ones.

To test that theory out, I contacted a number of fantasy baseball players and gave them a challenge.  Put together the best possible rotisserie team (offense only) based upon completely accurate “projections.”  Instead of projections, each participant was given six players in each category and their actual final 2018 162-game statistics.

One might surmise that determining the most valuable player from each set would be simple. Indeed, there are a number of sites that assign accurate dollar values to players based upon their statistics.  So rostering the highest valued team would be simple.  But, is rostering the highest valued players a recipe for winning?  I don’t believe so.

Who is more valuable to put on your team, Jose Peraza and his .288 average (over 632 AB) and 23 stolen bases or Jonathan Villar and his .260 average (over 466 at bats) and 35 steals?  Or do you prefer Scooter Gennett’s 23 home runs and .310 average?  It all comes down to how you construct your team.

Here are the grouping of players (remember, the stats were the actual 162 game 2018 stats):

Catcher #1                         Catcher #2                            First Base

Buster Posey                     Gary Sanchez                      Anthony Rizzo

Francisco Cerevilli         Jonathan Lucroy               Cody Bellinger

Kurt Suzuki                        Mike Zunino                         Ian Desmond

Sal Perez                              Mitch Garver                      Jose Martinez

Yadier Molina                   Omar Narvaez                   Matt Olson

Yasmani Grandal            Tucker Barnhart                 Max Muncy

Second Base                      Third Base                             Shortstop

Cesar Hernandez           Anthony Rendon               Aledmys Diaz

DJ LeMahieu                    Joey Gallo                              Amed Rosario

Jonathan Villar                Justin Turner                       A. Simmons

Jose Altuve                        Matt Chapman                  Jurickson Profar

Jose Peraza                        Miguel Andujar                 Marcus Semien

Scooter Gennett             Travis Shaw                         Tim Anderson

Outfield #1                        Outfield #2                      Outfield #3

Christian Yelich              Andrew  Bennitendi   Aaron Judge

Giancarlo Stanton        Bryce Harper                  Billy Hamilton

J.D. Martinez                   David Peralta                  Brett Gardner

Khris Davis                       Justin Upton                    Michael Conforto

Mike Trout                        Mallex Smith                    Nick Castellanos

Mookie Betts                  Michael Brantley           Yasiel Puig

Outfield #4                      Outfield #5                      Utility

Ben Zobrist                     Aaron Hicks                    Adam Eaton

Lorenzo Cain                 Eddie Rosario                 Denard Span

Mitch Hanigar              Ender Inciarte                JaCoby Jones

Nick Markakis              George Springer           Manuel Margot

Rhys Hoskins                Ronald Acuna Jr.           Max Kepler

Tommy Pham                Stephen Piscotty          Wil Myers

Corner Infield               Middle Infield

Anthony Rendon        Aledmys Diaz

Anthony Rizzo             Amed Rosario

Cody Bellinger            A. Simmons

Ian Desmond               Cesar Hernandez

Joey Gallo                     DJ LeMahieu

Jose Martinez            Jonathan Villar

Justin Turner              Jose Altuve

Matt Chapman          Jose Peraza

Matt Olson                  Jurickson Profar

Max Muncy                 Marcus Semien

Miguel Andujar        Scooter Gennett

Travis Shaw                Tim Anderson

I contacted and invited a myriad of managers, ranging from the uber-successful Greg Morgan to a manager in my local league who has never won a baseball title.  I also included two “control” teams so that I could better determine if in fact there was a skill to constructing a team.  As I am infatuated with gimmick drafting, including punting categories, I also included a team that punted steals.

Here’s the lineup:

BZ is a fourteen year old fantasy player who has a pretty good knowledge of the players and value, but hasn’t yet seen much success in baseball leagues. He did co-manage an NFFC football champion, but football and baseball are certainly quite different. BZ tried a novel approach, punting both steals and batting average.  You don’t need to read any further to know that he didn’t win with that approach.

Randy.  Randy is in one of my local leagues.  He’s a really smart guy, and very personable, but has yet to sniff a championship.

Marc Meltzer.  Marc is a fellow writer for Creativesports.  He admitted that he didn’t spend a lot of time on his roster, and expected not to fair well. Even so, Marc has likely forgotten more about fantasy sports than many managers will ever know, so even with a meager effort, he was expected to finish in the top half.

William.  William is an NFBC veteran with multiple championships under his belt.  He didn’t want me to use his real name in case he didn’t do well.  Chicken.

Glenn.  Glenn runs a number of fantasy leagues, plays in even more, and has a wealth of fantasy knowledgeable.  He was among the first to write a computer program decades ago that assisted in selecting players based upon the team’s makeup during a draft.

Jimmy.  Jimmy is a local league legend, competing for (and winning) championships on a yearly basis.

NFBC Rookie. This gentleman didn’t want his name used, and in hindsight for good reason.  He has more money than fantasy knowledge, and wanted to try playing in the big leagues, hence his foray into the NFBC this past season.  Predictably, his first NFBC experience did not result in a top ten finish in his league, but he could always find his team in the standings merely by looking at the bottom, first.

Greg Morgan. Greg is among the finest fantasy sports players alive.  His successes are virtually unparalleled.  He was, of course, the odds on favorite to win this competition.

Carol.  Carol is the wife of an NFBC player.  She doesn’t play much, but claims that she has learned through osmosis.  Sure she did.

Alpha First.  This is a “control’ team, taking the first player in each group based solely upon the player’s first name.

Alpha Last.  This is a “control’ team, taking the last player in each group based solely upon the player’s first name.

Punting Steals.  This team chose to forego steals and took the best available player without consideration of stolen bases.

Prior to putting in the figures, based upon my knowledge of the players, I handicapped the competition:

Greg Morgan          3-1

Jimmy                         5-1

William                      6-1

Marc Meltzer        8-1

Punting Steals      10-1

Glenn                        15-1

Randy                       20-1

Carol                         25-1

NFBC Rookie       25-1

BZ                               30-1

Alpha First             99-1

Alpha Last              99-1

I fully expected that Greg, Jimmy, William and Marc would fight it out, with Marc being on the outside looking in merely because he didn’t put in a full effort.  Punting steals would be competitive, but wouldn’t succeed in winning.  BZ’s novel approach at punting two categories would doom him from the start.  Randy, Carol and the NFBC rookie were too inexperienced, and I figured that the control teams would finish dead last, as the other ten players had to be better than random.

Here’s how it played out:

It’s a small sample, just one competition, but the best player, Greg Morgan, won going away.  This should be a surprise to absolutely no one.  Punting steals was surprisingly effective.  Glenn, William, Jimmy and Marc, experienced players did better than the rest.  BZ and his punting two category strategy did exactly as expected as he finished atop HR and RBI, high in Runs, and at the very bottom of both SB and Average.

The less experienced players, and the control teams, also did as expected, finishing in the bottom five, even below BZ.  Interestingly, the NFBC rookie lost to both control teams, and Alpha Last beat Randy and Carol as well.

So, what does this tell us?  First, it’s no coincidence that Greg Morgan won.  It’s also not surprising that punting steals was competitive but not the winner.  Equally unsurprising is that the experienced players fared better than less experienced players.

Team construction, even with 100% accurate projections is a difficult art to master.  Managers with an understanding of relative value of players and categories are going to do better than those who don’t.  It’s not all about projections, and in fact if this small study tells us anything, it’s mostly about team construction.

Oh, and Greg Morgan is a fantasy beast.

Best of luck.  Don’t blink.

Buster