I’ve played in the NFBC since its very first year. Last year, for the first time ever, I took a starting pitcher in the first round. I had my sights set on Max Scherzer with the 11th pick, but Clayton Kershaw fell to me and I jumped on him. Oops. I finished second in my league and likely would have won had I not taken Kershaw. Lesson learned.
The lesson isn’t “Don’t take a pitcher in the first round,” but instead, “Don’t take Clayton Kershaw in the first round.” That latter lesson is for a different column, although I seriously doubt that anyone will be taking Kershaw in the first this year.
For years, we were told that pitchers are risky picks and that pitching can be found later in the draft. Well, things have changed. Dramatically. Drafting pitching in the first round is no longer uncommon but instead quite expected. Two pitchers (Scherzer and Jacob deGrom) are near locks to be chosen among the first 15, with Chris Sale knocking on that door. Five additional pitchers will be gone by the end of the second round (Corey Kluber, Aaron Nola, Justin Verlander, Blake Snell and Gerritt Cole). As we get closer to draft day, you will find that Trevor Bauer and the aforementioned Kershaw rising in ADP.
So, what has changed since the first 10 years of the NFBC? Pitchers are still risky. Just ask any Kershaw owner last year. Yu Darvish owners last year were even less excited about drafting pitching early. Ditto for Robby Ray owners, Chris Archer owners and Carlos Martinez owners. Between bad luck, bad pitching and injuries, pitchers are certainly difficult to predict. Khris Davis has hit between 42 and 48 home runs in each of the last three years. DeGrom’s ERA has ranged from 1.70 to 3.53 during that same span.
While pitchers are certainly harder to gauge, they are becoming more and more important each year. I’m old enough to remember the early 1970 White Sox teams where Wilbur Wood started 43, 49, 48, 42 and 43 games in individual seasons. Three of those years, Stan Bahnsen started 43, 42 and 38 games. Wood averaged 325 innings during that span — Bahnsen slacked, going just under 250 innings on average.
Today, with the advent of partial six-man rotations and openers as opposed to starting pitchers, starting pitching innings are hard to come by. Quality starting pitching innings are even tougher. Last year, only 13 pitchers threw at least 200 innings, and only five threw more than 210 innings. Those 13 included unrosterable James Shields and less-than-stellar Dallas Keuchel. For comparison, 28 pitchers eclipsed the 200 inning mark as recently as 2015.
If you are attacking your drafts like its 2015, you are going to find yourself with a solid offense and the likes of Andrew Heaney and Zach Godley counted on for ERA, WHIP, strikeouts and wins. Simply put, it just won’t work.
If you haven’t already, it’s time to change with the times. Of course, you could always zig while the rest of us zag, but we all know how that will turn out.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster
