There are a number of rules in negotiating — one of the more important ones is not to overvalue your client’s relative worth. Bryce Harper has super agent Scott Boras in his corner. Boras is good, real good. But he’s not without his failures as well. Just ask Mike Moustakas. Last offseason, Moose turned down a $17.4 million qualifying offer, only to accept a one-year deal for just $6.5 million. Jake Arrieta was reportedly seeking $200 million, only to sign last year for $75 million over a shorter duration.
Boras is not afraid to wait, and if Harper’s reported asking price is more than $350 million and teams aren’t “a little bit stupid stupid about it,” Harper’s wait might be a long one.
My mentor, the late, great Lawr Michaels, would always caution not to use too many statistics in a column, so I’ll do my best to keep stats to a minimum. MLB’s recent slow offseasons are already backing me up.
But last year Harper hit .249, raking him 97th out of qualified hitters. Harper’s .889 OPS ranked 16th. His WAR of 1.3 ranked 186th. All of this in a contract year.
Harper of course put a 10.0 WAR MVP season in 2015, disappointed in 2016 and then had another solid year in 2017, though played in only 111 games (good for a 4.7 WAR — which would have ranked 31st had Harper played enough to qualify).
Last year was similar to the disappointing 2016 when Harper hit .243 (125th), had an OPS of .814 (58th) and a WAR of 1.6 (159th).
Teams looking at Harper have to be hoping that he can repeat his 2017 season at the very least, with the potentially for something approaching 2015 if he plays a full year. That’s tough to imagine given his past three seasons. Harper will sell tickets, but he profiles more like Anthony Renton than he does mike Trout. Yes, Harper is more talented than Rendon, but their numbers for the past three years are comparable — with Rendon having the edge.
Batting Average: Harper .267 / Rendon .292
OPS: Harper .887 / Rendon .878
WAR: Harper 2.5 / Rendon 4.4
Harper was born in October of 1992; Rendon was born in June of 1990. While Harper is almost two years younger than Rendon, he plays a less challenging position, and not very well. Rendon is currently playing out his final year for $18.8 million, and the Nats have talked about signing him long term, surely for less than Harper’s demand.
Le’Veon Bell overplayed his hand this past season and lost millions sitting out the entire season. Moustakas overplayed his hand, settling for a very reasonable (by MLB standards) contract last year. Let’s hope that Harper doesn’t make the same mistake.
Best of luck. Don’t blink.
Buster.
