Home runs are on a record pace across MLB this season. For fantasy purposes, instead of worrying about why home runs are increasing, it is most important to find players who may benefit and consider them for our teams.
There are key statistics that can be examined to help identify players who may benefit from the hitting environment this season. The easiest way that a batter can hit more home runs is to:
• Hit more balls (increase contact).
• Reduce ground balls and increase balls hit in the air.
• Hit the ball harder and increase fly ball distance.
Players who are best able improve these three conditions should be able to hit more home runs. This is the simplest way to home run success. What happens, though, if a player is having success despite not meeting these conditions?
The increase so far in 2019 could be the result of any manner of variables (or combinations): the ball, launch angles, off-season preparation, weather conditions, schedule, etc. In order to pull out players for a deeper dive, I have found players who have increased (from 2018) their HR/FB% but have decreased their FB%. The thinking here is that if we can find players who have upped their HR/FB rate from 2018 and are hitting fewer fly balls to the outfield, it might indicate players who are directly benefiting from a change in the hitting environment. These may be players who have succeeded because of the ball change and/or players who may make another performance increase if they regress back to (or improve) their normal FB%.
There are 17 players (with a minimum of 6 home runs) who fit the criteria as of May 13 (sorted by Average Fly Ball Distance Difference from 2018 to 2019):
| Name | FB% Dif (-IFFB%) | HR/FB% Diff | Ave FB Dist | Ave FB Dist Diff | 2019 HR |
| Brandon Belt | -2.80% | 2.50% | 346 | 29 | 6 |
| Leonys Martin | -25.40% | 8.50% | 346 | 28 | 6 |
| Carlos Correa | -4.90% | 13.40% | 346 | 25 | 9 |
| Yoan Moncada | -10.40% | 7.20% | 346 | 25 | 7 |
| Jonathan Schoop | -0.50% | 2.90% | 336 | 25 | 6 |
| Jose Altuve* | -3.40% | 10.40% | 338 | 21 | 9 |
| Joey Gallo | -5.80% | 18.60% | 360 | 16 | 12 |
| Joc Pederson | -2.00% | 14.90% | 340 | 11 | 12 |
| Adam Jones | -0.20% | 7.30% | 324 | 11 | 8 |
| Manny Machado | -4.60% | 0.60% | 327 | 9 | 8 |
| Yasmani Grandal | -10.70% | 2.00% | 336 | 8 | 6 |
| Tim Anderson | -2.50% | 6.90% | 318 | 7 | 8 |
| Rhys Hoskins | -7.20% | 7.90% | 329 | 5 | 11 |
| Freddie Freeman | -1.40% | 3.50% | 332 | 3 | 7 |
| Max Kepler | -4.40% | 4.90% | 319 | 3 | 8 |
| Matt Chapman | -0.70% | 3.70% | 321 | 0 | 10 |
| Eugenio Suarez | -3.00% | 4.50% | 321 | -11 | 12 |
*Currently on Injured List.
The double-digit improvement in HR/FB% is encouraging for owners of Carlos Correa and Jose Altuve as they rebound after injuries in 2018 (though Altuve is currently on the IL). There are a few breakout darlings who are out to hot starts: Yoan Moncada, Max Kepler, Matt Chapman and Tim Anderson. As well as the big power bats of Joey Gallo, Eugenio Suarez, Rhys Hoskins and Manny Machado. All in all, a diverse list.
Before examining players, we need to consider the results. There is an important detail in the above table that needs to be clarified. The calculation if “Difference in FB%” is (2018 FB% – 2018 IFFB%) – (2019 FB% – 2019 IFFB%): Infield Fly Ball Percentage (IFFB%) has been subtracted from FB%. This was done because an infield fly ball can’t be a home run. It makes sense that when one of the search parameters is the reduction of FB% minus IFFB%, the players who have large infield fly ball percentages are going to slightly skew the results. Still, value can still be found. Here is the list again sorted by 2019 IFFB% from smallest to largest:
| Name | FB% Dif (-IFFB%) | HR/FB% Diff | Ave FB Dist | Ave FB Dist Diff | 2019 HR |
| Brandon Belt | -2.80% | 2.50% | 346 | 29 | 6 |
| Leonys Martin | -25.40% | 8.50% | 346 | 28 | 6 |
| Carlos Correa | -4.90% | 13.40% | 346 | 25 | 9 |
| Yoan Moncada | -10.40% | 7.20% | 346 | 25 | 7 |
| Jonathan Schoop | -0.50% | 2.90% | 336 | 25 | 6 |
| Jose Altuve* | -3.40% | 10.40% | 338 | 21 | 9 |
| Joey Gallo | -5.80% | 18.60% | 360 | 16 | 12 |
| Joc Pederson | -2.00% | 14.90% | 340 | 11 | 12 |
| Adam Jones | -0.20% | 7.30% | 324 | 11 | 8 |
| Manny Machado | -4.60% | 0.60% | 327 | 9 | 8 |
| Yasmani Grandal | -10.70% | 2.00% | 336 | 8 | 6 |
| Tim Anderson | -2.50% | 6.90% | 318 | 7 | 8 |
| Rhys Hoskins | -7.20% | 7.90% | 329 | 5 | 11 |
| Freddie Freeman | -1.40% | 3.50% | 332 | 3 | 7 |
| Max Kepler | -4.40% | 4.90% | 319 | 3 | 8 |
| Matt Chapman | -0.70% | 3.70% | 321 | 0 | 10 |
| Eugenio Suarez | -3.00% | 4.50% | 321 | -11 | 12 |
Let’s examine a few players more closely.
Yoan Moncada
Is it possible that his early season breakout could be even better? His HR/FB% has jumped from 11.7% to 23.1%. His hard contact has dropped slightly and become medium contact, but he has increased his Pull% from 41.4 to 46.9. His has abandoned his plate passivity from last year and has upped his Swing% from 41.1 to 45.9 at the same time maintaining his Swinging Strike Percentage (12.2 to 12.6) and has taken his Contact Percentage from 70.1 to 72.7. He has dropped both his K% (33.4%-26.9%) and his BB% (10.3%-8%), but has really increased his IFFB% from 6.9% to 10.3%. His more aggressive plate approach has been working and he has brought his batting average up from .235 to .289 (with only a 12-point jump in BABIP) and he has hit 9 home runs through 40 games while hitting 17 all of last season.
Most importantly, Moncada’s fly balls have dropped from 40.1% to 34.5%. If he can regress his fly balls to last year’s mark and also bring his IFFB% back to 2018, he could see a boost in his home runs. A combination of 5.6% more fly balls, and 3.4% fewer pop ups would improve an already impressive performance. The numbers indicate that his breakout is real, but could be even more pronounced.
Max Kepler
On many breakout lists last year, Kepler did not meet expectations, but he has made early strides this season. He has raised his barrel percentage from 6.6 to 7.6, and his StatCast expected stats are all up this season as are his BA, OBP, and SLG (from .408 to .429). He is not hitting the ball to the opposite field as much as last year (24.6% to 15.1%) but is pulling it from 43.1% to 55.5%. This puts him at risk for defensive shifting that could see his batting average take a hit. He has made a 13.4% increase in his Zone-Swing and the maintenance of his over 91.7% Zone-Contact %. His FB% is identical to last year, but his IFFB% has risen from 10.8% to 16.4%. An improvement in FB% and IFFB% this year could really benefit our fantasy teams if he maintains his hitting data. Continue to monitor his FB% and IFFB% and if Kepler can raise it, he could hit the ball over any potential shift and benefit our home run production.
Tim Anderson
A table showing his seasonal production lines really is needed to show Anderson’s improvement from last year.
| Games | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | |
| 2018 | 153 | 20 | 77 | 64 | 26 | 0.05 | 0.246 | 0.289 | 0.24 | 0.281 | 0.406 | 0.687 |
| 2019 | 37 | 8 | 25 | 24 | 12 | 0.039 | 0.203 | 0.364 | 0.322 | 0.353 | 0.521 | 0.874 |
While a .364 BABIP may be unsustainable, the other numbers are impressive and look like they will all blow past last year’s marks. Anderson is an example of a player who has actually increased his FB% from 33.5 to 33.9 but is on this list because he has increased his IFFB from 5% to 7.9%. At the same time, his HR/FB% has risen from 14.2% in 2018 to 21.1% so far this year. Strangely, his spray chart is relatively similar to last year (Pull -4.4%, Center +5.5%, Oppo -1.1%) as are his contact numbers (Soft -0.1%, Medium +1.7%, Hard -1.7%). What has improved most is his plate discipline. He Swing% has increased from 54.0 to 55.8 and his Z-Swing % is up from 72.6 to 78.2. While swinging more at balls in the zone, Anderson has improved his Contact% from 73.7 to 77.8 and his Z-Contact from 85.3% to 88.8%. It seems very reminiscent of Moncada’s improvement as both players are being more aggressive and swinging more. Perhaps, this is a team-wide change in approach? At any rate, Anderson’s nice start to 2019 could improve if he is able to reduce his IFFB% and make a more significant effort to hit the ball in the air.
Joey Gallo
It is telling that one of the game’s most prodigious power hitters is on this list (perhaps, mostly for the other players!). Gallo has had an excellent start to the season, and a deeper look into his numbers is valuable. He has socked 12 HR, scored 27 Runs, driven in 28 RBI, and while an OPS of 1.014 isn’t surprising, his .248 batting average is. A chart of his hard-hit data is needed to really appreciate what Gallo is doing:
| Pull % | Centre % | Oppo % | Soft | Medium | Hard | |
| 2018 | 4510.00% | 3140.00% | 23.5 | 12.6 | 38.9 | 48.5 |
| 2019 | 5920.00% | 3540.00% | 15.4 | 10.8 | 29.2 | 60 |
Gallo is destroying the ball with an 89.2% Hard and Medium Contact Percentage! Despite being frequently shifted, he continues to pull the ball 14.1% more than last year. He has reduced his IFFB% to 7.7% from 11.7%, raised his walk rate 7%. His average has risen 42 points from last season, in part, because of his .321 BABIP (up from .249). Obviously, Gallo is seeing the ball well and smashing it to an average of 360 feet for his fly balls with an average home run distance of 421. Imagine the home run numbers Gallo could produce if he brought his FB% from 40% this season closer to last season’s 49.8% and maintained his 4% decrease in IFFB% (from 11.7% to 7.7%)!
All of these players have performed a difficult feat so far in 2019: They are hitting more home runs per fly ball but not actually hitting more fly balls. With positive regression (improvement) in their FB% to last year, they could improve their home run output. While it is clear that these players are hitting the ball well right now, it may be changes to the ball that may continue to allow them to produce despite reducing one of the factors that would create home run success (hitting fly balls). Continue to monitor these players, because if they are able to maintain these results and increase their FB% to “normal,” their results may make another dramatic jump.
