Roster construction is one of the most important factors when drafting your fantasy team. When doing your pre-draft research this offseason, it is important to understand a player’s range of outcomes. When determining these ranges, the terms most often used are “ceiling” and “floor.” A player’s ceiling refers to the best possible outcome. Meaning if everything goes their way what is the highest stat total they can accomplish. For a player like Julio Jones, he could finish as the No. 1 fantasy receiver, amassing over 1800 receiving yards. A player’s floor is the production you could expect at a minimum. While Jarvis Landry was on the Dolphins it was safe to assume his floor was 80 receptions for 800 yards.
It is important that we do not confuse “Floor” with “Risk.” A player can still have a high floor while still being a risky pick. A player’s risk involves many factors ranging from depth chart concerns, quarterback play and overall health. Julian Edelman is known for having a high floor due to his involvement in the offense but is still a risky pick due to age and injury concerns.
Now that we understand what a ceiling and a floor are, how do they pertain to our pre-draft research? When
speaking of a ceiling and floor they are normally preceded with the terms “High” or “Low”. A high ceiling will mean that they have high upside. A low ceiling means that the player is lacking upside. The same applies to a players floor. Unless you are in the first two rounds, draft targets do not have the combination of a high ceiling and a high floor. There are many factors that give us the ability to project each player’s range of outcomes and constructing your roster is all about balancing those ranges.
We all can admit that Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, Marvin Jones and Desean Jackson are all high upside receivers. The only problem is they all have a very low floor. Each player is regarded as “Boom or Bust”. This receiver core has the firepower to beat any team but any given week can completely shut down. If you rely on too many of these types of receivers you will find yourself flying too close to the sun in easier matchups.
In the playoffs there is no “Next Week”. It’s win or go home and if you want to gamble on boom/bust receivers to produce for three straight weeks you will be playing with fire. There is also the polar opposite effect. If your receivers are Michael Thomas, Demaryius Thomas, Golden Tate and Randall Cobb you may have less fluctuation week-to-week in the amount of points scored but your team will be severely lacking that game-breaking upside needed to defeat the stronger teams in your league. In order to win in the playoffs you need to have a combination of a safe week to week base line with game breaking upside.
There is a point in the draft where balancing the roster is no longer a priority. This part of the draft is in the double digit rounds. By then your projected starters are already filled in and you have some depth on the bench to weather any early injuries or busts. At that point you have the freedom to draft players that you don’t need to produce right away. The focus and priority should always be the highest upside. These players are known as “Lottery Picks.” Some examples of successful lottery picks last year were: Devin Funchess, Robby Anderson, Chris Thompson, and Alvin Kamara.
Each has very low success rate but when they hit, they hit big. The floor of a player could be nonexistent and that would still make for a great target. You want players who could really blow up rather than players who will put up safe but minimal points on a weekly basis.
For example Sterling Shepard is likely to receive five targets per game in New York. A reliable stat line for him would be three-for-46 which would be good for 7.6 PPR fantasy points. Martavis Bryant, on the other hand, is buried on the depth chart and has no rapport with Derek Carr. It is impossible to predict his usage or production but we all know he has the physical gifts to be a top end wide receiver. While you wouldn’t expect immediate nor consistent production from Bryant, there is a path where he could be a top 20 player at the position. Sterling Shepard will never be a top 20 player no matter how good this offense becomes.
To summarize everything up, never be locked into your rankings. Be flexible with your draft picks and in the later rounds shoot for the highest upside. If you notice many of the players on your roster are lacking a ceiling, draft a high ceiling player. If the players you drafted are lacking a high floor, draft high floor players. When you get deeper into the draft, player rankings start to become very close.
Any news article or OTA update could move a player up or down in the rankings. Even if a player is ranked at WR40 but he fits the need of your team better than the player you have ranked at WR38, don’t be afraid to draft against your rankings. Take control of your draft, don’t be afraid to call an audible. Nothing is ever black and white on draft day.
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