We’re nearly three weeks into the 2021 NBA season which means the numbers are beginning to hold some weight. Initially, players’ production is noteworthy but a small sample prevents long-term forecasting due to fear of extrapolation. For instance, after two games Terry Rozier was averaging 30.5 PPG. Two games is an obvious small sample and clearly unsustainable, but our expectations for Rozier’s scoring can slightly increase, as he’s averaging 20.3 PPG now on .619 TS% compared to 18 and 0.553 last season. Although he was unable to maintain that torrid start, 20 PPG from Rozier on efficient shooting is a giant step in the right direction.
In this article, I’ll examine the ten highest rated players, according to the standard eight category player rater, who were drafted outside of the top 20 to see if their scorching starts are supported by the advanced stats. Most will regress at least some as there’s a reason they were drafted outside of the first two rounds, but we want to distinguish the players who have actually improved their game from those who merely came out of the gates hot. Below are the ten highest rated players, their PR rank and ADP.
| Player | PR Rank | ADP |
| Paul George | 3 | 20.4 |
| Khris Middleton | 4 | 35 |
| Jaylen Brown | 6 | 42.8 |
| Zach Lavine | 8 | 46.9 |
| Myles Turner | 9 | 90.7 |
| CJ McCollum | 10 | 38.3 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | 12 | 54.2 |
| Nikola Vucevic | 13 | 32.6 |
| Gordon Hayward | 15 | 54.6 |
| Jrue Holiday | 17 | 32.9 |
Aside from George, none of these players are particularly big names yet they’re currently leading their more accomplished peers for a reason. Now we must determine whether their improvement is legitimate or a product of small sample size making them prime sell high candidates.
Holds
George dropped out of the first two rounds due to recency bias from Los Angeles’ collapse in the 2020 playoffs. This is a player who finished third in MVP voting two seasons ago! The driving force behind George’s resurgence has been knockdown shooting and increased assists, as he’s currently shooting .500 3P% and at 5 APG. A .680 TS% and 24.9 AST% (career .567 and 17.1) are unsustainable but even accounting for decreases in those categories keeps George in the top 10 conversation.
Better shot selection has elevated Lavine’s game, as a huge portion of his shots are coming at the rim or from three. This has led to a career-high .599 TS% (career .557) while his counting stats have remained identical. The interesting development has been a blistering .595 2P% compared to a career-low.321 3P%. The gap between the shooting rates will shrink which results in Lavine capping out as a top 25 player with upside.
Vucevic is perennially underrated because of his steady, well-rounded game for a mediocre Orlando team and an all-star bid couldn’t even change that. His modest player rater jump stems from increased 3-point volume at a career high .421% as the rest of the stats are in line with career norms. If you roster Vooch, I’d put out a flier for a Karl-Anthony Towns swap but otherwise stand pat with one of the most consistent players in the league.
Hayward isn’t worth the massive deal Charlotte used to lure him from Boston but his play in the early-going has come close from a fantasy perspective. His current numbers are near identical to his last season in Utah when Hayward was an all-star, which goes a long way toward validating his performance thus far. A 1.5 SPG average that’s fourteenth in the league and a .912 FT% are likely to decline but the other stats are legitimate making Hayward a strong candidate to maintain his current performance.
Test The Market
Middleton had an all-time great shooting season in 2020 with a .497/.415/.916 that he somehow has managed to raise to .556/.509/.968 in ten games this year. Milwaukee is first in the NBA in FG% and 3P% which helps explain a career high 5.9 APG and 27.2 AST% (career 17.1). Middleton has essentially been Paul George with less fanfare so the outlook is the same for the dynamic wing.
Brogdon is the prototypical NBA point guard and that has finally translated to fantasy stardom in his second year with Indiana. Increased 3-point volume along with a .475 3P% and more steals are the driving force here. In addition, being fourth in the league at 37.4 MPG has helped pad his counting stats. Although Brogdon is known for his steady production, using him to upgrade point guard to a Devin Booker type isn’t out of the equation.
Holiday’s shift from first option in New Orleans to third option in Milwaukee hasn’t significantly affected his value thanks to stellar rates and hustle stats. A .492/.400/.824 line will likely regress toward a career .453/.355/.778, but the increased steals (third in the league) make up for a 1.5 dip in APG. Market Holiday to a team in your league struggling in steals and ask for an underperforming star in return.
Sell
Brown has steadily progressed each season of his career and has fully broken out after a borderline all-star season last year. His rates are up across the board but the true progression has stemmed from a near elite 29.2 USG% that will most likely decrease when Kemba Walker returns (projected to be Friday). Boston’s dynamic duo of Brown and Jayson Tatum will return to a trio which should cap Brown as a top 25 player rather than top 15. Tatum is out for the next week plus due to COVID, use this time to market Brown as his production will surely decrease once all three are healthy.
Turner has transitioned his game to the ‘Brook Lopez’ role to accommodate the emergence of Domantas Sabonis and has executed that to perfection thus far. Nearly two thirds of Turner’s player rater score is a result of his league leading 4.1 BPG, more than 50% greater than second place Rudy Gobert, and steals and rebounds are his only other player rater categories greater than 1. Turner’s efficient shot chart has resulted in a career high TS% along with a career high .459 3PAr (3-point attempt rate), 2.3 STL% and 11.6 BLK% (career .567, .221, 1.3, 6.5). The complete transition legitimizes the improvements to a certain extent although the blocks are likely to decrease. Being a niche player depresses Turner’s overall impact, making marketing him for a player who can help in multiple categories a savvy move.
McCollum’s leap into the top tier of fantasy ballers is a result of a huge increase in threes and steals, as he’s currently leading the league in 3PG and sixth in SPG. A career high .524 3PAr and .444 3P% show McCollum has made huge strides toward modernizing his game while the increase in steals (and reduced turnovers) imply he’s focused on the intricate details. It’s highly unlikely for McCollum to sustain elite shooting rates which makes him an ideal sell high target.
