Give it Some Time

Last week, ten players starting out hot were identified and investigated whether they could maintain their elevated performance. This week, the opposite will be the focus by dissecting players who have fallen uncharacteristically behind early on. In doing so, many of the same advanced metrics will be discussed, including USG%, TS% and 3PAr, with a change in role being a big culprit. Below is a chart of player’s with surprisingly low player rater ranks and their ADP for reference. Players who are injured or have missed time due to COVID will not be discussed.

There are a number of surprising names on the list including Antetokounmpo and Doncic who are going first and fourth on average in current drafts. The goal of this exercise is to identify whether the early struggles are justified or due to plain old bad luck. Players will be categorized as likely, unlikely or somewhere in the middle as far as whether they’ll return to form

Likely to Rebound

Antetokounmpo sits at 35 on the player rater because of free throws as his league worst -5 player rater in that category nearly cancels out a combined 5.32 in his two best categories of points and rebounds. This is the product of a league-leading 10 FTAPG and a career worst .575 FT%. Compare that to a still below average but better combined .683% over his prior two MVP seasons and it’s clear that room for improvement exists. Look for this rate to improve but this is the fourth straight year his FT% has decreased so don’t expect anything much more than .600 for the season. Antetokounmpo’s rebounds are also down 3.6 per game and his TRB% has dipped from 22.1% last year to 16.8%. This is extremely minor compared to the free throws but still noteworthy as the addition of Bobby Portis (8.2 RPG) has lessened the MVP’s output on the boards.

Before the season I had this to say, “I’m lower on Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic and James, the point forwards in essence, than most because of their lack of efficiency, especially from the line.” James’ increased three-point production has mitigated this but it’s rung true for Antetokounmpo and Doncic, as the dynamic third-year player is at a net -0.12 in FG% and FT%. His production across the board has been near identical to last season with the only difference being an uptick in blocks and a decrease in threes which has negatively affected his value. Both his 3P% and 3PAr are down, which is surprising as the two typically have an inverse relationship. A .260 3P% stands to rise, especially with added floor spacing thanks to the return of Kristaps Porzingis, which should elevate Doncic to the top 20 at the very least.

Young’s decrease in fantasy production is solely a result of three point shooting as his 3PPG are down more than 50% this season to 1.5. His 3PAr is also down from .455 to .329 and the combined hit has him at only 0.66 PR points in the category ranking 99^th. The lesser output is most likely the result of numerous moving pieces and new additions on a young Atlanta team that attempted to make the leap from rebuilding to contending in the off season. The return of additions Danillo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic will help space the floor and give Young more open looks while his .265 3P% stands to regress toward a combined .344% from his first two seasons. The two fewer 3PPG explains a 6 PPG decrease in scoring and a 0.7 STL% stands to approach a career 1.3%.

Temper Expectations

Expectations for Booker need to be checked following a career year for two reasons: Phoenix’ contention and Chris Paul. Now that the Suns have a well-rounded roster with seven players averaging double figures, they don’t need Booker’s scoring quite as much which explains his 23 PPG average after hitting 26.6 in consecutive seasons. The second and bigger hurdle is a decrease from 6.5 to 4.3 APG due to the presence of Chris Paul. Booker’s assists were expected to decline, but the increased rates from playing with a veteran point guard haven’t accompanied. His current .813 FT% should approach a career .869%, and once that happens Booker will return to being a top 30 player.

The Sixers appear to be running their offense through Joel Embiid which has been a huge hit to Simmons’ value. Despite playing nearly every game for a depleted team, Simmons 19.5 USG%, .544 TS%, 12.3 PPG and 33.4 AST% would all be career lows. Philadelphia’s shift to a smaller lineup has resulted in more rebounds and blocks, but playing on a more well-rounded guard heavy team has limited his shot attempts. A .500 FG% stands to rise (career .558%), although all signs point to Simmons being more of a top 30 player than top 15 like some expected.

Drummond has performed near expected in most categories with FG% and PPG being the exceptions that have depressed his value. Playing for a young Cleveland team heavy on big men has led Drummond to expand his shot selection which has resulted in a career low .492 2P%. This has his FG% PR as barely positive which, when paired with abysmal free throw shooting, poses a challenge in constructing a balanced roster. There are rumors that Drummond is on the trading block, but it would be difficult to see him gaining any value from this as evidenced by last season’s deadline move.

Many players on teams who made deep playoff runs last year didn’t receive adequate rest in the offseason and have dragged early on; such is the case with Murray. An uncharacteristic .750 FT% (career .873%) is the biggest blemish, but Nikola Jokic’ ascension to fantasy menace has left Murray scraps as his sidekick. His rebounds, assists, steals and blocks are all below his averages from the last two seasons and the modest increase in scoring and FG% hasn’t offset that. Murray will vault into the top 75 when his FT% regresses but it’s difficult to view him as having top 60 upside.

Reevaluate

Many, including myself, expected Siakam to make another jump last season thanks to additional touches. The adjustment increased counting stats but killed his efficiency, as a .628 TS% in 2019 shrunk to .554% last year and currently is at .523%. Like Simmons and Drummond, players who don’t contribute in either percentage category are often over-valued which clearly is the case with Siakam. Toronto has struggled early and Siakam will improve when as the team does, but last season’s benchmark is probably the peak which means Siakam is most likely a top 50 player with top 40 upside at best.

As mentioned with Booker, Phoenix’ jump to relevance has killed Ayton’s scoring as his current 12.5 PPG is a far cry from last season’s 18.2 mark. In fact, every category is lower except for FG%, which makes sense considering the team added Chris Paul in the offseason. The one stat that stands to improve substantially is a .640 FT% (career .739%) which will increase Ayton’s PPG slightly in turn. Look for Ayton to remain focused on his defense, which has improved substantially, rather than fantasy relevant stats.

Atlanta’s Capela and John Collins frontcourt pairing raised some eye brows and appears unfavorable for both players’ outlooks. Capela is used to playing as superstar James Harden’s pick and roll partner in a small, 4-out offense. Having another capable big on the floor means a crowded paint that’s more difficult to navigate for Capela’s limited offensive game. All of his stats except for rebounds are down this year when compared to his 2018 – 2020 three-year average in Houston. Onyeka Okongwu’s debut clutters matters further and the only thing that could save the center’s value is the slight possibility of a Collins trade. Aldridge’s age has caught up with him as his points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks are all at or near career lows since his rookie season and his .479 TS% is lowest among all qualified centers. There is zero upside as evidenced by his highest PR category score being points at 0.54. He’s still playing decent minutes but knowing Talen Horton-Tucker, JaVale McGee and Damion Lee are directly ahead of