A new NFL season is upon us, and with it comes a new fantasy football season. Each year, there’s a new pool of players, and you should already be studying these players. The purpose is to decide who you want to draft and at what price. If you’re like me, you’re always looking for value with each pick because this is how a fantasy title is won.
In recent years, I have found that a handful of running backs needed to be drafted early and wide receivers, tight ends and quarterbacks can be added later. The perfect start was to draft two running backs in the first two rounds before you enter the dreaded Running Back Dead Zone. What is the Running Back Dead Zone? You must be new to the game.
The Running Back Dead Zone is rounds 3-7, which historically speaking have been rounds where running backs have performed poorly compared to wide receivers drafted in those same rounds. But this year, it’s different. The Dead Zone is very much alive, with the likes of Breece Hall, Najee Harris, Joe Mixon and Travis Etienne available in the third round.
One round later, Jahmyr Gibbs, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker and Miles Sanders could still be on the board. If this isn’t your first time playing this game, you know that Jones was drafted in the second round in 2021 and 2022. Of course, this is a different Green Bay Packers team, in the post-Aaron Rodgers ERA. And there’s A.J. Dillon in that same backfield.
If there agree that the The Dead Zone is alive, you might also agree that the Zero RB strategy might be your ticket a fantasy title. What is Zero RB? You really are new to fantasy football, aren’t you? Zero RB is a strategy where you don’t select a running back until at least the fourth round. Instead, you’re taking a couple of wide receivers, a tight end, or a quarterback.
Now, I’m not saying you should pass on Christian McCaffrey or Austin Ekeler. But what if your draft position is later in the first round? McCaffrey and Ekeler will be gone. But what if you see Tyreek Hill, or Cooper Kupp on the board? Come to Mama. Better yet, what if Travis Kelce is still available? Barring injury, you will have the top tight end on your team.
If you are drafting at the end of the first round, you could do the wide receiver double tap. How about Stefon Diggs and CeeDee Lamb, two alpha wideouts, on your roster? When the draft snakes back around to you, it’s possible that Mark Andrews is still on the board. If you can roster these three players, you have three big assets on board. Now, look for an RB.
The draft order in my two friends and family leagues have not been set yet, but I can tell you that it’s likely that I will utilize the Zero RB strategy if McCaffrey and Ekeler are off the board when I make my first pick. I’m looking for Justin Jefferson, or Ja’Marr Chase at that point. If they’re both gone, I want Kelce, Hill, or Kupp respectively. I will feel good about any of them.
The first two picks you make are crucial to your draft success. It’s been said that your first two picks won’t win a fantasy title, but they could lose one. If I’m picking 7th, I know I’m going to get Kelce, Hill or Kupp. When I pick again in the second round, I may be able to grab Amon-Ra St. Brown and feel confident that I have the two best wide receivers in my league.
In this example, my next pick in the middle of the third round would be No. 31 overall. At this point, it’s likely that I can get Mark Andrews if Kelce didn’t fall to me in the first round. While Andrews is not as good as Kelce, the difference between these two isn’t much. Like Kelce, Andrews remains the unquestioned top pass catcher in his team’s offense.
Trust me when I tell you that if you start the draft with Hill, St. Brown and Kelce, you have the foundation for the best team in your league. But it’s now round 4, and you still haven’t selected a running back. What follows is a capsule summary of the running backs likely available for you to draft. If you use Zero RB, you should take three in the next four rounds.
JAHMYR GIBBS, RBI, DETROIT (ADP 36)
Gibbs may slip into the fourth round unless you play with sophisticated players who have heard about this rookie from Alabama. He may be small, but he makes up for it with his receiving and speed. The up-and-coming Lions selected him 12th overall in the NFL Draft. That mitigates any workload concerns for Gibbs – even with the acquisition of David Montgomery.
AARON JONES, RB, GREEN BAY (ADP 38)
The Packers will continue to use a two-back approach with a new quarterback, and they are a team in decline. While Jones lost the majority of the goal-line work to Dillon in the second half of the season, he did catch 59 balls – second on the team. But Jordan Love isn’t Aaron Rodgers. Jones saw a career-high 72 targets in 2022, but temper expectations here.
KENNETH WALKER, RB, SEATTLE (ADP 44)
I wasn’t wild about Walker before he suffered his groin injury at practice. Now, I’m out on him in the fourth round and possibly altogether. Walker was the RB8 from Weeks 6-17 after Rashaad Penny suffered a season-ending injury, but he underwhelmed as a receiver. Seattle added Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the draft, but he’s out with a shoulder injury.
MILES SANDERS, RB, CAROLINA (ADP 47)
When Miles Sanders signed with the Panthers, he was reuniting him with many familiar faces from his days with the Eagles – Duce Staley (former Eagles RB coach), Frank Reich (former Eagles coach) and Josh McCown (former Eagles QB). At a minimum, Sanders will operate as the main back and could be a three-down back. Draft with confidence.
DAMEON PIERCE, RB, HOUSTON (ADP 48)
The Texans looked like they had struck gold with Pierce in 2022, as the rookie was the early favorite to take home offensive rookie of the year honors. Pierce quickly became the team’s bell cow in Week 2. From that time until Week 10, Pierce was the fantasy RB12 overall but was later slowed by an injury. Keep in mind that Devin Singletary is now in this backfield.
ALVIN KAMARA, RB, NEW ORLEANS (ADP 57)
Kamara has been creeping back up draft boards after his three-game suspension was announced. The market had priced in a six-game suspension. Still, I wouldn’t touch him unless he fell to the seventh round. He had a bad year in 2022, Taysom Hill seeing an increased role as a backfield rusher. Kamara’s receiving usage also fell off a cliff toward the end of the year.
DALVIN COOK, FREE AGENT (ADP 58)
The assumption is that Cook will sign with an NFL team and become the No. 1 back. But Vikings RB finished dead last among all ball carries in rushing EPA and rushes for zero or negative yardage. Cook ended the season as the RB8 overall and RB10 in points per game despite getting the league’s 4th-highest opportunity share (78%). I’ll pass at this price.
CAM AKERS, RB, LA RAMS (ADP 60)
Head coach Sean McVay says that Akers had a strong offseason and will be a “huge part” of what the Rams do in 2023. That’s a far cry from the guy who got benched in Week 1 and was almost cut. Eventually, he inherited the Rams’ RB1 role and delivered as the fantasy RB4 during the last six weeks of the season. I would take a chance with him at this ADP.
JAMES CONNER, RB, ARIZONA (ADP 62)
When James Conner was healthy in 2022, he had elite production. He was the RB4 overall in his last eight games, averaging 17 fantasy points per game, while playing over 90% of his team’s snaps in five contests. Arizona did not invest anything into the No. 2 running back position this offseason so expect to see Conner’s heavy workload continue if he stays healthy.
RACHAAD WHITE, RB, TAMPA BAY (ADP 63)
Like Piece and Akers, White is the lead back on a bad team. White saw his role grow during the second half of the season, and from Weeks 10-17, he averaged 11 fantasy points per game (RB26). He wasn’t great as a rusher – four yards per carry – but his superior proficiency as a receiver (50 receptions, 11th among all RBs) solidified him as the RB1 in 2023.
ALEXANDER MATTISON, RB, MINNESOTA (ADP 65)
When the Vikings moved on from Dalvin Cook, Mattison emerged as the heir apparent in the backfield. Mattison smashed in most games that Cook missed in 2020-2021, averaging 23.7 PPR points and 90 rushing yards per game. Currently, Ty Chandler, DeWayne McBride and Kene Nwangwu are behind him on the depth chart, so he’ll have his chance to be a workhorse.
J.K. DOBBINS, RB, BALTIMORE (ADP 68)
Plagued by knee injuries, Dobbins played in five games (including playoffs) averaging 6.6 yards per carry, 92 rushing yards, and 14 carries per game last year. Dobbins is currently on the PUP list, and the date of his return to the field is unknown. Rumor has it that Dobbins has more pain in the wallet right now, as he is holding out for a new contract. I’m out on him.
D’ANDRE SWIFT, RB, PHILADELPHIA (ADP 69)
Swift came out of the gates red hot in 2022 but got hurt. When he returned, Jamaal Williams was given the feature role at the goal-line. Swift was still uber-efficient on a per-touch basis – fourth in fantasy points per touch, third in yards per carry, 23rd in points per game. Running behind one of the best lines in football, Swift could be a steal at this draft price.
ISIAH PACHECO, RB, KANSAS CITY (ADP 70)
From Week 10 through Week 17 Pacheco was the RB21 in points per game and ranked sixth in total rushing yards. Pacheco kicked his performance into high gear as the Chiefs made their postseason run. He averaged 13 touches for 65 rushing. Pacheco should be viewed as the early-down starter for the chiefs, with room to grow in the Kansas City backfield.
JAVONTE WILLIAMS, RB, DENVER (ADP 76)
Williams was limited to just 4 games in his second year after tearing his ACL, LCL and PCL in Week 4 against the Raiders. Even before his injury, Williams ranked as the RB35 in points per game (9.0). Even if he is back by the start of the year, expectations must be kept low because of the severity/complexity of his knee injury. But that’s already baked into his price.
JAMES COOK, RB, BUFFALO (ADP 82)
Cook is rising quickly on draft boards based on early reports that he could be a three-down back. He was used in a limited fashion during his rookie season behind Singletary. The first-year rusher averaged a 40% snap share over the team’s final seven games, matching Singletary point-for-point (RB25 in points per game). Damien Harris is his main competition.
DAVID MONTGOMERY, RB, DETROIT (ADP 83)
Montgomery signed a 3-year, $18 million deal with Detroit this offseason, and some analysts think Montgomery will get enough work in the Lions backfield to be a steal at his price. In his 15 healthy games played last season, he averaged 10.9 fantasy points per game as the RB26. If you buy into the storyline that he will be a co-star in this backfield, this is ADP is a value.
There are the seventeen running backs you’ll likely see on your draft board when you reach the seventh round. There is no question in my mind that I can find two starting running backs from this group if necessary. Again, this will depend on my draft strategy, which will depend on my draft position. The point here is that Zero RB is a viable strategy in 2023. Good luck.
Thomas L. Seltzer, AKA Doubting Thomas, writes about baseball and football for CreativeSports. Be sure to follow Thomas on Twitter @ThomasLSeltzer1.
